Last week all the computer models were predicting that we would see high temperatures today between 99-101. That isn't going to happen. Temperatures will be in the upper 80's to low 90's for the rest of the week. Our new problem is that last week's extreme heat wave created a "Flash Drought". And what is a Flash Drought?
A flash drought is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. It is set in motion by lower-than-normal rates of precipitation, accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, winds, and radiation. Together, these changes in weather can rapidly alter the local climate.
Fox 59 of Indianapolis discussed this.
https://fox59.com/news/how-rare-was-todays-heat-and-flash-drought-conditions-are-developing/
We appear to be in an oscillating see-saw pattern with extreme heat for four days at a time then a drastic cooling off period for three days. Check out the next 10-day forecast from AccuWeather. The range is anywhere from 78-95 degrees with little to no rain chances.
If you want to read the National Weather Service discussion, see it below. It's is very long with a lot of details.
.Short Term...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 ...Chance of storms today, mainly across South Central IN... ...Highs in the 90s again today, then back to the 80s tomorrow... ...Today and tonight... Another hot day is in the forecast for Central Indiana tomorrow, but some slight relief enters the picture for tomorrow. An upper trough passes through Southern Ontario today suppressing the strong ridge responsible for the well above average temperatures over the past few days. At the surface, a cold front extending from a low near the Hudson Bay ushers in a cooler and drier airmass by Thursday. Current surface analysis this morning depicts the cold front and associated thunderstorm activity from Eastern Kansas to Western Illinois. The front is forecast to pass through the northern half of the forecast area this morning, then clear the rest of the CWA this evening. Not very impressed with the current storms along the front as it moves into a dry environment not conducive for thunderstorms to persist. Expecting this area of convection to dissipate as it nears Indiana later this morning; however, upper level clouds stemming from these storms should still filter into the region. The area to watch for potential thunderstorm development is far South Central Indiana, while the front passes through during peak diurnal heating. With the upper low and associated surface feature across Central Canada, the jet dynamics, forcing, and wind energy remain displaced well to the north of the front. 06z IND ACARS soundings also show a very dry airmass aloft, despite a moistening PBL with southerly flow ahead of the front. Lack of forcing/wind energy, subsidence under the high, and abundant dry air aloft will all work together to limit thunderstorm activity today. South of the front, peak heating of the day, steep low level lapse rates, and increased low level humidity will lead to CAPE values over 3000 j/kg, creating a very marginal environment for thunderstorm development. CAMs guidance continues to support the idea of very little convection developing, and anything that does form will be disorganized and pulse in nature. Lackluster wind shear will prevent the tilting of updrafts, leaving storms to quickly collapse on themselves. For this reason, a storm that develops may produce brief periods of gusty winds during their collapse. Overall, most locations will remain dry today. With cooler air lagging behind the front, another hot day across Central Indiana is expected. Northwesterly flow will usher in much drier air through the day from north to south with dew points falling into the 50s. Cooler air lags behind the front, so with a hot airmass (850mb temps around 20C) still overhead, surface temperatures will likely rebound into the low to mid 90s. Not too worried about heat index values as max dew points should occur during the morning hours and not during peak heating of the day. Nevertheless, it will still feel quite hot outside! ...Thursday... The front clears the region by Thursday with yet another area of high pressure moving in from the northern Plains. The airmass Thursday will feel quite different, with northerly surface flow on the eastern side of the high advecting much drier and relatively cooler air into Indiana. Temperatures aloft at 850mb drop from 20C to around 13C translating to surface max temperatures in the mid to upper 80s rather than 90s. Subsidence under the high should keep skies clear and any chance for precipitation well away from the Indianapolis CWA. && .Long Term...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Thursday night and Friday... Surface high pressure will be in control of the weather during this time frame, providing quiet conditions. The upper high will begin to nose its way back into the area on Friday, allowing warmer air to return. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 look reasonable. Dewpoints will remain low, so heat indices shouldn`t be an issue. Friday night through Sunday night... Some initial upper energy out ahead of a large upper trough will move nearby on Friday night into early Saturday. Its main impacts will be felt west of central Indiana, where an 850mb jet will likely generate some convection. While the 850mb jet will weaken Friday night, some of the convection may make it into the forecast area before dying later Friday night into Saturday morning. Will have some low PoPs then. Saturday afternoon should remain dry with no forcing around. Warmer air will move in on Saturday as the upper high continues to push northeast. Temperatures will depend on sky cover from any previous convection, but highs will likely be around 90 to the lower 90s. If more sunshine is available, readings could be warmer. The large upper trough will approach the area on Saturday night through Sunday night, pushing a cold front through central Indiana. The front looks to mainly move through Saturday night into Sunday morning, which will limit instability available for the front. Best upper support will remain north of the area in the stronger part of the trough. Will keep PoPs no higher than chance category, with PoPs ending Sunday evening as the front exits. Highs on Sunday will remain warm as colder air will take a bit to arrive behind the front. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90. Monday and beyond... Much cooler air will move in with the upper trough and behind the surface front. At the surface high pressure will build in and provide dry conditions. Highs may not reach 80 degrees in some areas Monday. Lows will be in the 50s Monday night, with highs in the 80s on Tuesday.
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