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.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 A large upper trough will be approaching the area for the end of the work week. A surface cold front will accompany the trough and move through midday into the late evening on Friday. Meanwhile, the remnants of tropical system Nicole will be absorbed into the upper flow and impact much of the eastern third of the country. There continues to be a trend for some of the rain from the remnants of Nicole to reach eastern Indiana. Model ensembles agree with the deterministic ones, so confidence is high enough to expand low PoPs across roughly the southeastern third to half of the forecast area. Rainfall amounts would be light though, with the vast majority of moisture farther east. The cold front coming in from the west won`t have any moisture to work with there as it will all have been robbed by the tropical system, so will not have any PoPs associated with it for central Indiana. Friday will also be fairly breezy ahead and along the front with gusts potentially reaching up to 25 to 30 mph throughout the day. With the cold front moving through on Friday, temperatures will only rise a little, up to around 60 across the SE, before becoming steady or falling west. Lows Friday night into Saturday will drop to the upper 20s. The upper trough axis will move through on Saturday, keeping clouds across the area. Any lake effect snow showers look to remain northeast of central Indiana. Otherwise, high pressure will settle in behind the front, so keeping a dry but much colder weekend in the forecast. Temperatures the remainder of the period will remain fairly steady with highs ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s and lows generally in the mid to upper 20s. The exception will be Saturday and Sunday nights where the lows look to drop to the low 20s as the high passes overhead. Uncertainty ramps back up for Tuesday`s forecast due to a lack of consensus on the next system set to move in. Models are showing a surface low potentially moving through the Ohio Valley and could bring precipitation with it. There is a bit more agreement than the previous forecast so have accepted the introduction of PoPs for Tuesday. Depending on how things pan out with this system, would not be surprised by snow and a rain/snow mix Tuesday. It`s too far out to nail down any details but certainly not buying some of the deterministic solutions that are projecting several inches of snow. Around an inch or less would be more realistic given the time of year and the likelihood that precip should impact the area during the day, but again, it`s too far out to nail down any amounts just yet.
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