Where is winter? The winter weather outlook for 2022-23

It looks like we are going to have a slight La Nina for the upcoming winter. It should last until March of 2023. A weak La Nina is the slight cooling of pacific ocean temperatures. Most of the cold air will be locked up in northwest Canada and then it will make slightly angled attacks into the northern plains, the upper midwest and the northeast. That's also where the best chances are for seeing some big snow storms. 

The storm track wants to dive in from the west coast into Colorado and then track to our north or just over northern Indiana and Chicago. This storms will bring down punches of cold air behind them. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this year looks a like a bunch rain-to-snow setups or more ice storms because we are right on the boundary of the preferred storm track and the cold air. That's all I have for now. There are my first thoughts but anything can always change.

For right now, enjoy the first two weeks of November. They will be pleasant. Cold air tries to make an attack around November 15th. Rain looks likely this coming Saturday.

#BOTS!

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022

Highlights:

* Well above normal temperatures
* Rain chances Friday night through Saturday


The beginning of the long term will be highly influenced by an
amplified upper level pattern. By Thursday night, much of the Ohio
Valley will be encompassed in very warm return flow from the SW.
This will lead to near record warmth over the state. Current
expectations are for highs in the mid 70s on Friday (Friday`s
record is 78 for IND). There will be an influx of upper level
cirrus associated with a near saturated layer around 300mb and
a strong jet streak, but this should have only marginal impacts
on day-time highs.

Moisture will slowly infiltrate the lower levels out ahead of a low
pressure system Friday night through Saturday. Precipitation onset
trends have pushed towards a slower solution, typical of occluding
lows over the Eastern Midwest. This is also associated with a
relatively dry 0-3km layer over IN/KY ahead of the cold front.
Still, light showers cannot be ruled out as a deep saturated layer
forms above 3km within an area of weak isentropic lift. As the front
nears, more intense ascent should help mix moisture, leading to more
consistent precipitation over central Indiana through the
afternoon and evening hours.

Most of the showers on Saturday shouldn`t have any lightning, but
there will be a shallow unstable layer that develops Saturday
afternoon as the surface begins to saturate. With a highly dynamic
system, any instability could lead to isolated thunderstorms.
This also could lead to a high wind threat with a LLJ of 60kts
developing simultaneously. This LLJ will limit frontal progression
as the mean flow becomes parallel, continuing rain chances into
Saturday night.

A slight cooldown is possible Saturday Night into Sunday morning
behind the low pressure system, but warmth returns rather quickly
for the remainder of the long term. Current expectations are for
highs near 70 and lows near 50 Sunday through Wednesday.