The current wind chill temperature is -2 in Bloomington.
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 329 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2024 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-060830- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone- Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam- Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby- Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess- Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- 329 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Wind chill values as low as 0 to -10 degrees this morning. Wind gusts to 45 mph this morning diminishing to 20 to 35 mph this afternoon.
This is the latest news from an article published in Barron's called, "Google Says AI Weather Model Masters 15-day Forecast". Check it out.
The top takeaways from the article are these:
"The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) produces predictions for 35 countries and is considered the global benchmark for meteorological accuracy. But DeepMind said GenCast surpassed the precision of the center's forecasts in more than 97 percent of the 1,320 real-world scenarios from 2019 which they were both tested on."
"The model was trained on four decades of temperature, wind speed and air pressure data from 1979 to 2018 and can produce a 15-day forecast in just eight minutes -- compared to the hours it currently takes."
"GenCast provides better forecasts of both day-to-day weather and extreme events than the top operational system... up to 15 days in advance," a DeepMind statement said."
Yep. All the data pointed to a nice storm developing between December 2-5 but it has now disappeared. At this point there are small chances for snow flurries or a clipper system on December 3rd but it won't be much to get excited about.
The next item of interest is a storm developing in New Mexico around the December 11th. It could give us some snow on December 13th.
If you haven't heard about this yet, you soon will. I don't even think Ryan Hall is talking about it yet. All the models (including the AI version) are hinting at a big storm system between December 2 and December 5. When all the models are in agreement on it, it's likely going to happen. The only differences in the models are exact placement, timing and the type of precipitation.
Normally in November we have one more severe weather outbreak before we finally transition into winter weather and I think this will happen during that 11/2 to 11/5 timeframe. The most trusted model, the EURO has a severe tornado outbreak followed by heavy snow.
Keep in mind that this in the long range, or 15 days away so the forecast will change many times before then but just be alert for that timeframe. Expect to see something like this:
#BOTS!
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 214 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-211915- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone- Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam- Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby- Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess- Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- 214 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana. .DAY ONE...Through Tonight. Snow likely towards daybreak Thursday with amounts up to a half inch. Westerly wind gusts to 30 mph through the afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Snow returns Thursday afternoon with 1 to 2 inches of snow expected. Locally higher amounts possible, but much of the accumulations will be on grassy and elevated surfaces. Wind gusts to 40 MPH are possible Thursday as well. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any accumulating snow measurements tonight into Thursday night.
A taste of winter will arrive by November 21 and it might hang around for a week. Get prepared for a jolt to your system! We should see the first snowflakes of the 2024-25 season next Thursday or Friday. My confidence is pretty high on this since all the teleconnections are lined up for it to happen and the computer models are agreeing on it and the National Weather Service is already mentioning it. (See below)
Also, the long range models are showing some really cold air for mid December but long range models can't be trusted that far out. I'm so excited. Bring On The Snow!
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)... Issued at 159 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 Stratus or stratocumulus will likely persist much of the day Friday due to residual moisture and mixing beneath strong subsidence inversion. This should clear Friday night as modest drying continues, with MSLP high center being placed favorably for light winds. Fog may form on the western periphery of residual stratus layer early Saturday morning, though the signal in the models isn`t currently significant and its spatial extent may be limited. As the mean ridge axis moves east, a continued warming will occur this weekend with +5-10 degree 2-m temperature anomalies expected. The normal high is 53 and the normal low is 36. There is some ensemble spread by Sunday-Monday, though not significant. There is a dipole among the GEFS-weighted cluster and the EPS-weighted cluster with regards to characteristics of a low amplitude shortwave trough within the northern stream. The more amplified GEFS camp suggests better rain chances into central Indiana, forced by a narrow midlevel baroclinic zone paired with modified ribbon of returning deep moisture. The ECMWF-camp is less amplified and mostly confined the southern extent of precipitation to northern Indiana. Next week, we appear to enter a period that is more synoptically complicated, with potential blocking due to strong positive height anomalies at higher latitudes. This is a low predictability scenario for medium-range guidance. There is a signal for a deep closed low to evolve over/near our region, but placement and timing has been inconsistent within recent model cycles. Clustering technique shows a variety of ridge/trough placements. Regardless, most models do indicate an eastward progress so the forecast challenge is more with specific timing of warm pre-frontal rain band, followed by how soon we get under the deep closed low with colder air and lingering precipitation, and how long that persists. Day 8-14: Late in the week the aforementioned deep closed low may progress enough eastward for cold air to align with embedded shortwave perturbations for some snow, though likely not substantial amounts. Thereafter, ensemble spread is large and the only thing we can say with any degree of confidence is that anomalous ridging and warm conditions look less likely the weekend after next into the week of the 25th, after what has been an extended period of anomalous warmth.
The weather has been fairly boring for the last three months. We haven't had much rain but now it looks like it's going to rain for Halloween which is Thursday. And today the wind is blowing so if you want to get pictures of fall colors on the trees, do it now and certainly before Thursday. I expect the trees to become bare after the weekend. Share photos if you have them.
So far all the climate data from the long range models are agreeing on temperatures averaging above normal for the upcoming Winter 2024-25 season. That doesn't mean we won't see any snow but it might be hard to come by. I think there will be brief cold air intrusions from the polar vortex and then it retreats and we are warm up again. It's going to be another roller coaster winter season. At least that is what the models are saying as of today. It might change next week. Such is the nature of wx computer forecasting.
On the other hand, the data does show that the polar vortex will try to visit us as early as Halloween this year.
Hooray - Today is the last 90 degree day! Autumn starts on Sunday, September 22. The high temperature will be 78 with some rain; which we desperately need because Indiana is in a moderate drought situation.
Other than that, enjoy the great weather coming up. We're going to have high temperatures in the 70's and low temperatures in the 50's and 60's.
For all my #bots friends, check this out:
.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)... Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 A strong ridge currently located over the southern Plains is expected to gradually build eastward this weekend. At the surface, high pressure slides eastward as well allowing winds to become southwesterly. Strong warm air advection is expected to begin and continue through the weekend. A trend towards warmer-than-normal temperatures is likely, with highs once again climbing into the lower 90s at times. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with the aforementioned synoptic setup and evolution. Uncertainty in the forecast arises with smaller-scale features that may allow for some precipitation chances by Sunday. These features (shortwaves riding up and over the ridge) should interact with a broad area of isentropic lift / warm advection to help initiate scattered showers/storms late Saturday into Sunday. Guidance currently keeps the bulk of this activity west of us across Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. Nevertheless, there are some solutions within the broader ensemble that bring precipitation into Indiana. Will include slight chance PoPs on Sunday to account for this, but confidence is low given rather ambiguous model support. Next week, ensemble guidance hints that the ridge flattens a bit. Despite this, above-normal temperatures should persist as no air mass change appears imminent. Combined with humidity, heat indices may approach criteria level Monday and Tuesday. Deterministic models occasionally bring a cold front through the region late in the week, but timing and intensity differs run-to-run and model-to-model. As such, confidence in the forecast after about Thursday decreases substantially.
Be very careful if you are outside today.
FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1032 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 Forecast is on track with hot and humid conditions expected today. Temperatures across central Indiana are already near 80 degrees with dew points creeping into the mid 70s. The system set to move in later today is currently prompting warnings over northern Indiana. This line of storms should reach our forecast area late this afternoon into the evening hours. Models are still showing scattered storms with a few stronger storms potentially producing damaging winds. Otherwise, not expecting much in the way of precipitation amounts with anywhere from a few hundredths up to around half an inch.
Bloomington will be on the southwest side of the storm at that time so be alert. See page 4 of the NWS bulletin.
https://www.weather.gov/media/ind/DssPacket.pdf
As of 12:00PM July, 9, there are no flood watches posted for Monroe County. Here is what the National Weather Service is saying:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 836 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for isolated tornadoes, heavy rain, and flooding this evening into the early overnight. - Rain amounts around 1-2.5 inches, highest towards Lafayette. - Tornado threat greatest south of I-70 and east of I-69. - Windy on Wednesday; Beryl Remnants Exiting && .FORECAST UPDATE... Updated probabilities to reflect ongoing initial band of rain, and made a few other minor adjustments to various fields. The forecast remains on track in general. Still concerned about tornadoes late this afternoon into this evening. It won`t take much instability with such rich lower tropospheric moisture and low LCL heights. 0-3-km CAPE is a more useful proxy for near-ground buoyancy that is key to tornadoes in these tropical environments. Small numbers translate northward through the southern half of the area roughly this evening, and this pairs with sufficient shear for tornadoes during that time. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Synoptic Overview. A gradually deepening upper level trough associated with the subtropical jet will ingest the remnants of Beryl and bring the storm northeastward with increasing speed. As it does so, the system will become more extratropical in nature. Latest model guidance has a pretty solid handle on the track of the low with gradual cyclogenesis expected through the late evening and overnight hours tonight which will help to tighten surface pressure gradients and increase the low level shear. There is fairly good ensemble agreement in a track roughly along the I-69 corridor with some uncertainty towards Wednesday morning as to how strong the cyclogenesis will be. Severe Threat. The main focus will be the impacts of Beryl this evening into the early overnight hours. This system`s hazards will be two-fold. The first and primary threat will be the potential for brief tornadoes and damaging winds in the right front quadrant of the tropical remnants which currently looks to set up along and south of the I-69 corridor. Latest high resolution soundings show a mixed bag for tornado potential into the evening with easterly to northeasterly surface flow at around 8-10kts with a gradual shift to more southeasterly at 3-5kft. This gradual shift doesn`t create a ton of turning within the hodograph, but does allow for periods of 0-1 km SRH to get to 150-200 m^2/s^2. LCLs will be very low with the near saturation to the surface which will limit the need for strong mesocyclone to generate tornadic storms. With the tropical nature, lapse rates will be moist adiabatic which will limit the instability and higher end threat, but with the fairly strong low level shear, the threat is definitely there for brief, low-end tornadoes. Flooding Threat. The second threat will be pockets of flooding across the northwestern corner of the forecast area. The combination of warm temperatures aloft which will make this a primarily warm rain process and with PWATs near climatological records, this will allow for a very efficient rain process with brief periods of rain rates around 1-2 inches per hour. Areas towards Lafayette will also see a longer period of rain with precipitation beginning this morning and continuing through the early overnight. Areas to the southeast of the more broad heavy rain are more likely to see amounts closer to 1- 2 inches which will certainly help the ongoing drought but shouldn`t be as impactful. The ongoing dryness will help to limit the overall impacts of the rain, but the high rates may allow for at least some brief flooding. Timing. Light rain will begin falling over the next couple of hours but the more steady rain will start towards mid morning across the western and northwestern portions of the forecast area. The main threat for severe weather will be from 6 PM to 2 AM but there is some low threat for isolated cells mid to late afternoon across far southern Indiana. The rain threat will continue later into the overnight hours but will taper towards daybreak. && .LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)... Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Wednesday... As we start Wednesday, models suggest the center of the Beryl remnants will be found over eastern Central Indiana. Ample moisture is still expected to be found with the system at that time, particularly on the back side, wrapping around the circulation center. Dry air is shown to be intruding into the system from the southwest through the course of the day. Models suggest this system will push northeast to SW Ontario by late Wednesday afternoon. Thus will focus best pops during the day across the north and east parts of Central Indiana. Another caveat in the forecast for Wednesday will be winds. A strong pressure gradient is suggested given the deep low. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph and gusts to near 40 mph will be possible. BUFKIT soundings show momentum transfer winds near 40 knts through the afternoon. A wind advisory may be needed, as wind speeds of this magnitude will easily blow about unsecured outdoor items. Given the expected clouds and rain as well as the tropical air mass that will be in place, highs will mainly be in the middle and upper 70s. Thursday and Friday... As Beryl remnants depart northeast, the upper pattern for Thursday and Friday is suggestive of a large high over the western United States, with a trough axis in place over the Great Lakes, stretching SW across IL to MO. This trough like pattern aloft will be a favorable feature for shower and storm development. Meanwhile at the surface, large surface high pressure is suggested to be in place, but the air mass is suggested to be warm and humid. Forecast soundings on both days suggest attainable convective temperatures along with CAPE present with little to no cap in place. Thus daily shower and storm chances will be needed with highs each day in the upper 80s to near 90. Saturday Through Monday... During this time, models continue to suggest an upper pattern with strong high pressure over the American west. This results in a weak NW flow spilling in to Indiana along with the lingering, persistent upper trough over the Great Lakes and Indiana. At this point within the lower levels strong high pressure is suggested to set up over the southeastern states, allowing a warm and humid southerly flow in to Central Indiana. Again, forecast soundings continue to suggest attainable convective temperatures with plentiful CAPE available. Thus continued diurnal daily showers and storm chances will be needed. Of note, a bit of warm air advection suggested on Monday allows 700mb temps to surge over 10C, which may result in a weak cap inhibiting convection. With warm air mass and humid air in place, highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s will be expected.
PRESS RELEASE UPDATE ON STORM DAMAGE
Note: Local landfills are not accepting deliveries of any trash currently due to lack of power.
More than 100 damage reports have been collected by Indiana 211 following Tuesday’s storm event in Monroe County.
The National Weather Service confirmed straight-line winds of 65-75 mph damaged homes and property in Monroe, Owen, Vigo and Clay counties. All four counties have declared, or plan to declare, local disasters due to the incident. No reports of significant injuries have been received at this point. Impacted residents in these four counties are asked to call 211 to report damage or visit the website at https://in211.org.
Damage
Most of these reports involve overturned trees into homes, some with significant damage. Only a handful of residents reported their homes to be uninhabitable. The local Salvation Army reported only two residents utilized the shelter established at their location, 111 N. Rogers St. The shelter will close Thursday, although residents with housing needs should contact Vinal Lee with the Salvation Army at 765-227-6909. This shelter is only available for residents with homes impacted by the storm.
As of 1 p.m. Thursday, approximately 28,000 power outages were reported across Indiana, with nearly 16,000 of those reported in Monroe County.
Bloomington residents are asked to avoid traveling on High Street until Friday.
Food/Water
Hoosier Hills Food Bank will offer a free emergency food distribution 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Friday at 2333 West Industrial Park Drive. An assortment of both perishable and non-perishable goods will be provided. Limit two households per vehicle, no exceptions.
Community donations are welcome as well by contacting hhfoodbank.org or by sending a contribution to P.O. Box 697, Bloomington IN 47402.
Additionally, residents on SNAP benefits may be eligible replace lost food by contacting the local Monroe County Division of Family Resources, 1531 S. Curry Pike, Suite 300, Bloomington, IN, (800-403-0864) or https://fssabenefits.in.gov/bp/.
Bottled water distribution will be held from 3-8 p.m. today at Sherwood Oaks Church, 2700 E. Rogers Road. Residents in need can drive in and pick up two cases (maximum) of water, and the water will be distributed from 2-8 p.m. Friday.
Debris Removal
Property owners with storm damaged trees and debris are asked to cut the debris into manageable pieces and stack it near the edge of the property. Monroe County and the City of Bloomington are formulating plans to remove the debris using city/county departments and potentially private contractors.
The city and county crews will not remove home damage debris, construction debris or damaged home goods. Stacked vegetative debris must not impede traffic on the public roadway. Only vegetative debris is eligible for removal.
The Monroe County Sheriff’s Department reported all downed powerlines have been neutralized, although residents should always avoid contact with downed lines.
Cooling Stations
Due to sustained heat, public safety personnel are coordinating cooling centers to temporarily support those impacted by the storm. Cooling stations have been established in Bloomington, Ellettsville and Unionville. A full list can be found https://www.in.gov/dhs/files/monroe-county-cooling-stations-june-2024-flyer.pdf.
Indiana Volunteer Organizations After Disaster (IN VOAD), Feeding Indiana’s Hungry and various cleanup crews continue to mobilize as well.
Media Inquiries
All media inquiries should be directed to the Monroe County Emergency Management Agency at 812-335-7288. Media inquiries are being coordinated by the Indiana Department of Homeland Security to assist Monroe EMA. Availability is limited as personnel evaluate damages.
It could be a rainy and / or/ stormy fourth of July.
Believe it or not, there are still 7,000 people in Bloomington without electricity and tomorrow's high will be 90 degrees. Here are some community alerts I received today:
Residents in need without access to tap water can drive in and pick up 2 cases of water at the Sherwood Oaks Christian Church, 2700 E. Rogers Rd. Hours of distribution: Thursday June 27, open until 7 PM and Friday June 28 from 2 PM to 7 PM.
A shelter is open at The Salvation Army, 111 N Rogers St., for those who are in need of shelter after the June 25 storm.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 124 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend begins today with highs in the mid 80s, highs near 90 for Thursday - Thunderstorms, a few strong or severe, are possible Thursday night - Hot and humid starting Sunday && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 956 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments needed. Expect quiet weather conditions today as surface high pressure remains in control. There is a low (10%) chance for an isolated light shower this morning over far NW portions of central Indiana over the next hour or two due to an approaching weak frontal boundary. This weak boundary will stall near NW Indiana which could allow for a few additional light diurnal showers to develop towards this evening. Confidence in precipitation is very low given weak forcing and subtle moisture. Will hold off on any mentionable POPs for later today, but slight POPs may need to be added in future updates. Increasing southwesterly flow combined with mostly sunny skies will warm temperatures into the 80s this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Surface analysis shows high pressure directly overhead. Winds have gone largely calm, and large-scale subsidence along with a mainly dry column has been eroding cloud cover through the evening. Additionally, the system responsible for the cloud cover is pulling away to our northeast. As such, continued clearing and excellent radiational cooling conditions should prevail through sunrise. Despite this, temps are running about 10 degrees above where they were last night since the core of colder air aloft is now to our east. With high pressure largely in control, we can expect quiet weather for the most part. Only a few high clouds may pass by at times and perhaps some diurnal cumulus may develop by the afternoon. Otherwise, surface winds become southwesterly as the high shifts eastward. A tightening surface pressure gradient looks to develop just to our northwest as a system impinges on the departing high. This may allow for some higher speeds and occasional gusts from about Lafayette northwestward. Winds still remain on the lighter side, regardless...with highest gusts hitting 20mph at most. Warmer winds from the southwest lead to even higher temperatures today with most places climbing into the middle 80s. High-res guidance is hinting at a weak convergent zone developing across northern Indiana late this afternoon. Additionally, they show a plume of higher dew points advecting northeastward along this boundary. Some members show dew points climbing into the lower 60s across northwestern portions of the area by evening (dew points in the 50s elsewhere). Model soundings show a dry column above 850mb, but enough near-surface moisture for limited instability along this boundary. Interestingly enough, multiple HREF members hint at isolated showers developing from around Lafayette northward around 22z. Probability of occurrence seems low (10-15 percent), due to limited forcing and instability...and if any shower develops is should be fairly shallow and short-lived. By tonight, expect any showers that manage to form to diminish quickly after sunset. Diminishing surface winds should retain a southwesterly component...but may go light and variable south and east of I-70. High clouds may pass through at times as debris cirrus from upstream convection drifts southeastward. Warmer lows more typical of June are expected with values dropping into the low 60s, with a few areas of upper 50s across our far southeast. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Thursday Through Friday night. The northwest flow regime will continue aloft through Friday night which will keep it mostly dry. However, models hint at the potential for an MCS to move across central Indiana Thursday night. Even if one doesn`t develop and move through, a cold front will be diving southeast across the area Thursday night and the combo of lift associated with that along with models supporting moderate instability with CAPEs to over 1500 J/kg supports 30+ chance PoPs Thursday night. If an MCS would develop, Corfidi vectors favor a southeast moving complex. Weak surface pressure gradient suggests low level inflow into the system will be minimal, however 50 knot deep shear and veering with height to go with the moderate instability supports the Spc Day2 Marginal and Slight Risks over northern and western parts of central Indiana with damaging winds and possibly large hail the main threats.It is too early to diagnose mesoscale details, including cold pool/shear balance. So, confidence is low on timing and coverage of convection. As the surface ridge aligns SW-NE along and south of the Ohio River, temperatures will gradually warm to near 90 degrees by Thursday. Meanwhile, potential cold front passage looks like it will result in Friday being not quite as warm with timing considerations key. Confidence is trending on the not as warm side. Saturday Through Wednesday. The main concern later in the weekend and next week will be the heat and humidity as an upper ridge builds overhead and then shifts east. At the same time, southerly low level flow will return to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. The return flow around the high is likely to result in dew points increasing to the upper 60s and perhaps lower 70s by Monday and with little cloud cover and continued southerly inflow under the influence of the ridge, temperatures could easily reach the lower 90s if not Sunday then Monday. With the increased moisture and instability, can not rule out isolated mainly diurnal pop ups. Models and ensembles are having problems resolving northeastward moving upper waves around the back side of the ridge but there is enough there to at least suggest a few storms can not be ruled out next week. This time period will need to the be looked at for potential future headlines. For now, will broadbrush it in the HWO and keep a weather story graphic going.
