As of 12:00PM July, 9, there are no flood watches posted for Monroe County. Here is what the National Weather Service is saying:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
836 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Potential for isolated tornadoes, heavy rain, and flooding this
evening into the early overnight.
- Rain amounts around 1-2.5 inches, highest towards Lafayette.
- Tornado threat greatest south of I-70 and east of I-69.
- Windy on Wednesday; Beryl Remnants Exiting
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Updated probabilities to reflect ongoing initial band of rain, and
made a few other minor adjustments to various fields. The forecast
remains on track in general.
Still concerned about tornadoes late this afternoon into this
evening. It won`t take much instability with such rich lower
tropospheric moisture and low LCL heights. 0-3-km CAPE is a more
useful proxy for near-ground buoyancy that is key to tornadoes in
these tropical environments. Small numbers translate northward
through the southern half of the area roughly this evening, and this
pairs with sufficient shear for tornadoes during that time.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024
Synoptic Overview.
A gradually deepening upper level trough associated with the
subtropical jet will ingest the remnants of Beryl and bring the
storm northeastward with increasing speed. As it does so, the system
will become more extratropical in nature. Latest model guidance has
a pretty solid handle on the track of the low with gradual
cyclogenesis expected through the late evening and overnight hours
tonight which will help to tighten surface pressure gradients and
increase the low level shear. There is fairly good ensemble
agreement in a track roughly along the I-69 corridor with some
uncertainty towards Wednesday morning as to how strong the
cyclogenesis will be.
Severe Threat.
The main focus will be the impacts of Beryl this evening into the
early overnight hours. This system`s hazards will be two-fold. The
first and primary threat will be the potential for brief tornadoes
and damaging winds in the right front quadrant of the tropical
remnants which currently looks to set up along and south of the I-69
corridor. Latest high resolution soundings show a mixed bag for
tornado potential into the evening with easterly to northeasterly
surface flow at around 8-10kts with a gradual shift to more
southeasterly at 3-5kft. This gradual shift doesn`t create a ton of
turning within the hodograph, but does allow for periods of 0-1 km
SRH to get to 150-200 m^2/s^2. LCLs will be very low with the near
saturation to the surface which will limit the need for strong
mesocyclone to generate tornadic storms. With the tropical nature,
lapse rates will be moist adiabatic which will limit the instability
and higher end threat, but with the fairly strong low level shear,
the threat is definitely there for brief, low-end tornadoes.
Flooding Threat.
The second threat will be pockets of flooding across the
northwestern corner of the forecast area. The combination of warm
temperatures aloft which will make this a primarily warm rain
process and with PWATs near climatological records, this will allow
for a very efficient rain process with brief periods of rain rates
around 1-2 inches per hour. Areas towards Lafayette will also see a
longer period of rain with precipitation beginning this morning and
continuing through the early overnight. Areas to the southeast of
the more broad heavy rain are more likely to see amounts closer to 1-
2 inches which will certainly help the ongoing drought but shouldn`t
be as impactful. The ongoing dryness will help to limit the overall
impacts of the rain, but the high rates may allow for at least some
brief flooding.
Timing.
Light rain will begin falling over the next couple of hours but the
more steady rain will start towards mid morning across the western
and northwestern portions of the forecast area. The main threat for
severe weather will be from 6 PM to 2 AM but there is some low
threat for isolated cells mid to late afternoon across far southern
Indiana. The rain threat will continue later into the overnight
hours but will taper towards daybreak.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024
Wednesday...
As we start Wednesday, models suggest the center of the Beryl
remnants will be found over eastern Central Indiana. Ample moisture
is still expected to be found with the system at that time,
particularly on the back side, wrapping around the circulation
center. Dry air is shown to be intruding into the system from the
southwest through the course of the day. Models suggest this system
will push northeast to SW Ontario by late Wednesday afternoon. Thus
will focus best pops during the day across the north and east parts
of Central Indiana. Another caveat in the forecast for Wednesday
will be winds. A strong pressure gradient is suggested given the
deep low. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph and gusts to near 40 mph
will be possible. BUFKIT soundings show momentum transfer winds near
40 knts through the afternoon. A wind advisory may be needed, as
wind speeds of this magnitude will easily blow about unsecured
outdoor items. Given the expected clouds and rain as well as the
tropical air mass that will be in place, highs will mainly be in the
middle and upper 70s.
Thursday and Friday...
As Beryl remnants depart northeast, the upper pattern for Thursday
and Friday is suggestive of a large high over the western United
States, with a trough axis in place over the Great Lakes, stretching
SW across IL to MO. This trough like pattern aloft will be a
favorable feature for shower and storm development. Meanwhile at the
surface, large surface high pressure is suggested to be in place,
but the air mass is suggested to be warm and humid. Forecast
soundings on both days suggest attainable convective temperatures
along with CAPE present with little to no cap in place. Thus daily
shower and storm chances will be needed with highs each day in the
upper 80s to near 90.
Saturday Through Monday...
During this time, models continue to suggest an upper pattern with
strong high pressure over the American west. This results in a weak
NW flow spilling in to Indiana along with the lingering, persistent
upper trough over the Great Lakes and Indiana. At this point within
the lower levels strong high pressure is suggested to set up over
the southeastern states, allowing a warm and humid southerly flow in
to Central Indiana. Again, forecast soundings continue to suggest
attainable convective temperatures with plentiful CAPE available.
Thus continued diurnal daily showers and storm chances will be
needed. Of note, a bit of warm air advection suggested on Monday
allows 700mb temps to surge over 10C, which may result in a weak cap
inhibiting convection. With warm air mass and humid air in place,
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and lows in the upper 60s and
lower 70s will be expected.
