The current temperature in Bloomington is 95 degrees!

 Woooo hoooo!

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

A transition to fall-like weather for the first week of Fall appears
likely. After a recent bout of temperatures in the 80s and near 90,
today`s cold front will signal a bit of a pattern shift heading
forward. General troughing across the eastern United States will be
the primary synoptic scale pattern through the long range. A return
to negative AO/NAO pattern is anticipated and this may allow for a
bit of variability within the trough ridge pattern by late next
week. In fact, many of the deterministic models currently depict the
jet stream pattern becoming quite chaotic a week from now. Overall,
with troughing in place expect generally cooler conditions more
reminiscent of Fall through the period.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure should build in
Thursday night. Optimal conditions for radiational cooling could
allow low temperatures to dip to near 40 degrees in places by Friday
morning. Return flow ahead of a fast-moving shortwave embedded
within the broad northwesterly flow aloft will allow for a brief
rebound in temps over the weekend. It will not be hot by any means,
but more seasonal high temperatures in the mid 70s and lows in the
50s can be expected. A few scattered showers or thunderstorms are
also possible this weekend as the wave passes through the region.
However, moisture will be limited as well as instability. So not
expecting anything widespread, but will include slight PoPs for
Saturday and Sunday.

Beyond that, ensembles generally show the broad troughiness
amplifying considerably next week. This appears to be in tandem with
Hurricane Fiona becoming an intense extratropical cyclone and
occluding over maritime Canada...possibly blocking the overall flow
progression a bit. Northerly flow at the surface returns as the
weekend`s upper-level wave slows down and deepens to our east.
Surface high pressure should then rebuild into the region, allowing
low temperatures in the 40s to return. Of course, with a large high
pressure system this time of the year, nighttime/morning fog is
possible as radiational cooling is optimized, combined with cooler 

temps and longer nights. 

Hurricane Thursdays and #BOTS!

The GFS model is bringing a hurricane close to Florida just about every Thursday.

Today is the last day of summer and its going to feel like it.

 Today's high temperature will be 94. Autumn starts tomorrow with a high temperature of 70. Enjoy!

Summer's last stand.

Are you ready for summer to be over and done with? Well, first we have to get through next week. High temperatures will try to hit 90 degrees next week between next Monday and Thursday. After that, the 90 degree heat is over with. Here's what the National Weather Service says:

Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022

* Above normal temperatures into next week.

* Largely dry except Sunday night into Monday.

Ridging at the surface and aloft will set the stage for broad
southerly/southwesterly low level flow over the weekend into next
week, with a prolonged stretch of above normal temperatures expected
as a result, with highs generally in the 80s each day (with a few
low 90s readings possible), and lows generally in the 60s, save for
tomorrow night when lows in the mid to upper 50s can be expected.

The ridge aloft will gradually deamplify during the period, although
the broad southwest flow will remain in place as it does so. This
will leave the area largely dry throughout the long term portion of
the forecast, save for late in the weekend into early next week.

Deterministic guidance diverges a bit in its placement and intensity
of a broad upper level wave expected to move through the Great Lakes
Sunday night into Monday, and thus can justify no more than chance
pops during this period. Convective indices suggest thunder
potential and will carry this in the grids as well. The system
should be progressive enough to prevent any prolonged rainfall or
significant hydrologic potential, and this likely represents the
only opportunity for rainfall through the seven day forecast.

CNN front page covers the coming heat wave.

A prolonged and record heat wave builds over the West this week

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/30/weather/record-heat-west-labor-day-forecast-tropics/index.html 

Summer is not over!

Enjoy the low temperature of 55 degrees tonight because it will be a long time before we see that again. The GFS has prolonged heat returning and staying into the first half of September. Check out these high temperatures for September 9, 2022. It could be anywhere from 102 to 106 degrees; yes the actual air temperature, not including the heat index. Even if this is off by a few degrees, we are looking at actual high temperatures in the high 90's. 

The Euro model says the opposite; cooler with high temperatures in the upper 70's for September 9, 2022. Isn't this fascinating?

So there could be several things going on here. The computer models disagree on where the heat dome will set up. The GFS says the midwest. The Euro says the plains and west. The EURO might be incorporating heavy rain which would keep the temperatures down. There is some truth to this because there are two tropical systems approaching the eastern coastline. The interaction between the heat dome and the tropical storms will be a battle to watch out for next week. 

AccuWeather splits the difference with a high of 84 and sunshine.

Weather dot com leans towards being hot with a high 89 degrees and sunshine.

The National Weather Service doesn't see that far ahead but here is their current thinking:
(The last paragraph is the most important part)

Long Term...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Thursday and Friday...

The long term weather will be the result of a
prototypical meridional pattern, beginning dry and cool, and
finishing warmer with low chances of showers/thunderstorms.

Currently, an upper level trough axis is centered over the Ohio
Valley, this will push off to the east over the next two days, and
by Wednesday night central Indiana will be within NW flow. The
particular pattern of NW flow, jet streak north of the region and
AVA, will create in height rises aloft, leading to near surface
pressure rises. This will result in broad subsidence over the
region, and a much dryer air mass (dew points in the mid 50s)
through Friday.

Saturday and Sunday...

Heading into the weekend, westerly WAA will build heights,
progressing the upper level ridge eastward. The warmer airmass aloft
will translate to a slight increase in surface temperatures with
highs in the upper 80s Saturday. A few models are indicating some
precipitation development over the southern Ohio Valley Saturday and
Sunday, but the current expectation is for this to remain south of
central Indiana. Still, enough uncertainty exists for slight chance
PoPs in the afternoon for both days over far southern portions of
the CWA.

Models have a much larger spread amongst ensemble members by early
next week, and will largely depend on the location/timing of lee
cyclogenesis within an upstream trough. Either way, SW flow should
return, leading to a better chance than not of above normal
temperatures as indicated by the current 6-10 day outlook from CPC.
Showers/thunderstorms will be possible within this return flow, but
enough ensemble spread exists to temper expectations.

The most famous Bloomington Indiana weather rumors!

1. A cold front always comes through during the last week of July.

2. There's always a snow or ice storm during the boys basketball high school sectionals.

3. The first week of October is alway hot, as in, way warmer than normal.

4. Tornadoes occur in October and November (albeit rarely but more common now due to climate change).

5. -- add your own thoughts in the comments below.

NOAA has issues a "Geomagnetic Storm Watch" for planet earth for August 17-19, 2022,

We are under a G3 Storm Watch
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g1-g3-watches-17-19-august-2022

What are geomagnetic storms?
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms

#BOTS fans!

In case you didn't know, AccuWeather posts very long range weather forecasts. I'm talking about three to four months out. I've been waiting to see their model predict the first chance of snow. Here is the October to November outlook:

#BOTS fans of the world unite!

Yes. I know. It's a little early for this given that the heat index is 100 degrees today but the Farmer's Almanac just published this for the upcoming 2022-23 winter season:

 

100 degrees today?

If you hear this rumor today it's a half-truth. The actual air temperature will reach 90 degrees. The heat index will reach 100. But not to worry. This is the last hot day for a while. A nice cool down is coming. You'll love this weekend with high temperatures in the 70's and lows in the 50's. Enjoy!