Expect freeze warnings for Monday and Tuesday. Northern Indiana will get some snow on Tuesday.
#BOTS!
#BOTS!
Heads-up if you use weather apps on your phone or tablet. The Thursday night temperature forecast is likely too warm. We have a chance to hit the freezing mark Thursday night (10/13), Sunday night (10/16) and Monday night (10/17).
Believe it or not, snow is showing up the long range CFS model. Of course this is not to be trusted this far out but it is nice to see. #BOTS fans!
The image above if for November 11, 2022. Out first snow flurries in this area usually occur around November 15th so this isn't an extreme idea. We've already had frost in early October so it's possible.
Frost and freeze warnings are already in place for this weekend.
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 300 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .Short Term...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 ...FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT... * Frost Likely and isolated Freezing conditions Tonight * Sunny and pleasant Saturday Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong and cold high pressure over the Dakotas, building south. This large high was extending its influence well east across the Great lakes and into the Ohio Valley. Cool north winds were in place across Indiana. GOES16 shows lake clouds steaming off of Lake Michigan, but most of these clouds were failing to reach Central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor imagery showed a broad trough across the eastern 2/3rds of the United States...with some high clouds passing across Illinois and Indiana within the flow. Dew points across much of Central Indiana have fallen to the middle 30s, with lower 30s found upstream. Tonight... Models show prominent NW flow in place aloft overnight with negligible forcing dynamics in place. Surface high pressure over the northern plains states is expected to sag southeast and a ridge axis is shown to extend east across Central Indiana. Time heights and forecast soundings overnight continue to indicate a dry column with subsidence. As heating is lost this evening and as the ridge axis builds, winds will subside leading to ideal radiational cooling conditions with clear skies and light to calm winds. Surface dew points across the area are still above 32 for the most part but additional cold air advection is expected overnight. Currently the 25 percentile NBM temps suggest lows near 32, meaning there are many more scenarios where lows do not fall below 32. Given our current dew points, frost appears to be a slam dunk, but freezing temps will more likely be the exception rather than the rule. Thus will trend overnight lows to mainly the middle 30s, probably with a frost advisory in play rather than a Freeze warning. Saturday and Saturday night... Northwest flow is expected to persist aloft on Saturday and Saturday night, again with negligible forcing dynamics in place. Forecast soundings and Time heights again show a dry column with unreachable convective temperatures on Saturday with a mid level inversion in place aloft. Meanwhile at the surface, the strong high pressure system is expected to sink southward and become more elongated stretching from Kansas toward eastern TN. This will set up a westerly flow across Indiana and also prevent any lake cloud from arriving in our forecast area. Thus we will expect a mostly sunny Saturday and a mostly clear Saturday night under influence of the surface high. Models suggest the beginning of warm air advection on Saturday and Saturday night as the core of cold air with this past system drifts east of Indiana. 850mb temps are shown to rise from below 0C to near 2C by 12Z Sunday. Thus will still stick close to highs in upper 50s and mid to upper 30s on Saturday Night. Again, frost looks to be in play on Saturday Night. && .Long Term...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 * Dry conditions and warming trend through mid next week * Next chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday * Cool and dry late week Sunday through Monday Warmer weather returns Sunday as surface high pressure moves east and southwest flow returns. Aloft, guidance suggests troughing remains through Monday few upper level impulses tracking across northern IN Sunday through Monday morning. Precipitation is not expected with these features as moisture return lags due to dry air across much of the region. However, mid-high level clouds will increase late Sunday which could limit overnight lows. Breezy conditions are expected during the day with forecast soundings showing a well-mixed boundary layer with the potential for 20-25mph wind gusts. Monday through Late Next Week... Mid-high clouds should clear out Monday as the aforementioned upper level feature departs. Upper ridging will then build in and help to continue the warming trend as heights increase aloft. In addition, an approaching cold front midweek will lead to increasing southwest flow. Both GFS and EC ensembles show above average 850mb temperature anomalies first half of the week, supporting highs in the mid to upper 70s. Quiet weather is expected through Tuesday with synoptic subsidence from ridging aloft and a dominant surface high across the Mid-atlantic. Rain chances increase Wednesday through early Thursday as the previously mentioned cold front moves through. Not the greatest confidence in widespread significant precipitation yet given the continued dry pattern and surface ridging possibly limiting moisture advection. Although, recent ensemble guidance shows a slightly stronger 850mb jet with deeper moisture across the area. With the jet stream diving so far to the south, there may be enough lift and upper level support along the front for light precipitation to develop, but this will be something to watch over the coming days. Keeping chance wording for PoP during this timeframe with the best chance for rain Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front late week. The coldest air is not expected to arrive until Friday as the trough axis moves east.
The Dick Frymire winter forecast!
The people of the great state of Kentucky have a local legend that has been predicting the winter weather for years. Dick Frymire passed away in 2013 but his family still continues the tradition.
Here is the forecast for the upcoming winter:
Here is the National Weather Service outlook for December 2022 - February 2023:
Updates and news you can use.
Everyone in Bloomington will see frost Friday night and Saturday night since the temperature will 34 degrees both nights.
October is our second severe weather season. It is possible to see severe weather and tornadoes because of the clash of cold and warm air masses just like in the spring.
Our first freeze is possible between October 14 and October 19.
#BOTS! Flurries on October 19th?
Here's what the NWS thinks:
Forecast Update... Issued at 641 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Minor changes to the forecast this morning. Refined the mention of patchy fog across our northeastern counties based upon recent observations and satellite trends. Nudged temperatures north of I-70 down a degree or two, again based upon recent observational trends. High pressure is currently overhead, and winds have generally decreased to less than 5kts during the course of the night. A few locations have even gone calm for multiple hours, and these have typically been the cooler spots with frost and fog. Given the expectation of clear skies with light winds through morning, the continued development of patchy frost and fog is anticipated until shortly after sunrise. && .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Through Sunrise High pressure is currently building into the region, and light northeasterly winds are diminishing. Some weak cold air advection throughout the day yesterday has allowed for cooler conditions compared to the prior overnight period. Many rural stations are reporting temperatures in the middle 30s as of 06Z. Will carry the mention of frost for much of the CWA and maintain the Special Weather Statement. Urban areas With excellent radiational cooling potential, some patchy ground fog is possible by morning. Terra Haute recently had a brief period of visibility under 2 miles. Low-level moisture is quite limited, however, and widespread fog is not expected. The main forecast challenge through morning will be the frost coverage. Today Any frost or ground fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise once temperatures begin to rise. Efficient boundary layer mixing may once again occur this afternoon, and surface dew points may drop to under 32F. Will keep dew points under NBM guidance this afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be seasonable, around 70, and winds will remain very light. A few high clouds may be noticeable to our east early, but these should diminish throughout the day. Tonight The center of the surface high will be directly overhead by tonight. Some air mass modification and the cessation of weak cold air advection will lead to slightly warmer overnight lows compared to this morning. While a few instances of frost may occur, most locations are not expected to be cold enough to support frost. Some patchy ground fog is possible, but once again not expected to be widespread. Most likely places for patchy fog would be low points in the local terrain and farmland with enhanced surface moisture from evapotranspiration. && .Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 * Frost likely with potential freezing temperatures this weekend * Very low chance for rain around Thursday Wednesday... Upper ridging and surface high pressure will continue the dry conditions. Sunshine and dry air will allow temperatures to peak above normal in the lower to middle 70s. Afternoon humidity will be low once again, but with high pressure nearby, winds will be light. This will help mitigate potential fire concerns. Thursday into Friday... A weak upper wave will move through on Thursday, with an accompanying weak surface trough. Moisture will be limited with the Gulf cut off. This means little chance of rain, and the models continue to hint at little if any QPF. Will keep some slight chance PoPs across the northern forecast area Thursday afternoon. Above normal temperatures will continue with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Thursday night, a cold front with significantly colder air behind it will move through. However, best forcing will be north of the area closer to an upper low across southern Canada. The upper jet will be over the area, putting the left exit region north of central Indiana. This will limit forcing here as well. Moisture will continue to be limited as well. Thus, odds of any measurable rain are low. Will continue a dry forecast Thursday night. As colder air flows in on Friday, some lake enhanced showers may move into northern Indiana. These should remain north of central Indiana, so went dry on Friday as well. Thanks to strong cold advection, highs on Friday will only be in the 50s to around 60. Saturday and Sunday... Surface high pressure will move through during the weekend, keeping the area dry and cool. Highs on Saturday will be in the 50s, with some southwest flow on the west side of high pressure bringing 60s for highs on Sunday. Clearing skies and weakening winds will allow temperatures to dip into the lower to middle 30s by sunrise Saturday. Frost will become likely many areas, with the potential for below freezing temperatures, especially in favored cold spots. Similar conditions will exit early Sunday morning, but a hint of a southwest wind should keep temperatures above freezing. Frost will be possible again though. Columbus Day... Upper flow will become zonal or perhaps southwesterly depending on how an upper low develops across the northern USA. This will allow for warmer temperatures. At the moment, forcing from the approaching system looks to remain far enough west to go with a dry forecast.
Frost in Bloomington!
There was frost this morning in Bloomington. The temperature got down to 37 degrees.
My personal Indiana wx observations.
44 degrees tonight. Ouch! Enjoy the first day of Autumn.
Here are some things that I've noticed about the weather over the five years. And this is specifically to Bloomington, Indiana. See if you have noticed the same thing.
1. Fall starts one month earlier, say about August 20th and even the leaves change colors earlier.
2. Winter stretches on into April more often.
3. There are fewer tornadoes during March Madness.
4. There are more fall tornadoes and severe storms.
5. Snow storms are not as big as they used to be.
6. The sun seems hotter than normal. I get sunburns from sitting in a traffic light for 45 seconds. The heat from the sun seem way more intense.
7. There's more flooding that normal but at shorter intervals or time periods.
8. There's also more periods of drought.
9. We haven't had an ice storm in a long time.
10. Wildfires out west have become so large that they affect the air quality in Indiana.
The current temperature in Bloomington is 95 degrees!
Woooo hoooo!
.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022 A transition to fall-like weather for the first week of Fall appears likely. After a recent bout of temperatures in the 80s and near 90, today`s cold front will signal a bit of a pattern shift heading forward. General troughing across the eastern United States will be the primary synoptic scale pattern through the long range. A return to negative AO/NAO pattern is anticipated and this may allow for a bit of variability within the trough ridge pattern by late next week. In fact, many of the deterministic models currently depict the jet stream pattern becoming quite chaotic a week from now. Overall, with troughing in place expect generally cooler conditions more reminiscent of Fall through the period. At the surface, a large area of high pressure should build in Thursday night. Optimal conditions for radiational cooling could allow low temperatures to dip to near 40 degrees in places by Friday morning. Return flow ahead of a fast-moving shortwave embedded within the broad northwesterly flow aloft will allow for a brief rebound in temps over the weekend. It will not be hot by any means, but more seasonal high temperatures in the mid 70s and lows in the 50s can be expected. A few scattered showers or thunderstorms are also possible this weekend as the wave passes through the region. However, moisture will be limited as well as instability. So not expecting anything widespread, but will include slight PoPs for Saturday and Sunday. Beyond that, ensembles generally show the broad troughiness amplifying considerably next week. This appears to be in tandem with Hurricane Fiona becoming an intense extratropical cyclone and occluding over maritime Canada...possibly blocking the overall flow progression a bit. Northerly flow at the surface returns as the weekend`s upper-level wave slows down and deepens to our east. Surface high pressure should then rebuild into the region, allowing low temperatures in the 40s to return. Of course, with a large high pressure system this time of the year, nighttime/morning fog is possible as radiational cooling is optimized, combined with cooler
temps and longer nights.
Hurricane Thursdays and #BOTS!
The GFS model is bringing a hurricane close to Florida just about every Thursday.
Today is the last day of summer and its going to feel like it.
Today's high temperature will be 94. Autumn starts tomorrow with a high temperature of 70. Enjoy!
Summer's last stand.
Are you ready for summer to be over and done with? Well, first we have to get through next week. High temperatures will try to hit 90 degrees next week between next Monday and Thursday. After that, the 90 degree heat is over with. Here's what the National Weather Service says:
Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 * Above normal temperatures into next week. * Largely dry except Sunday night into Monday. Ridging at the surface and aloft will set the stage for broad southerly/southwesterly low level flow over the weekend into next week, with a prolonged stretch of above normal temperatures expected as a result, with highs generally in the 80s each day (with a few low 90s readings possible), and lows generally in the 60s, save for tomorrow night when lows in the mid to upper 50s can be expected. The ridge aloft will gradually deamplify during the period, although the broad southwest flow will remain in place as it does so. This will leave the area largely dry throughout the long term portion of the forecast, save for late in the weekend into early next week. Deterministic guidance diverges a bit in its placement and intensity of a broad upper level wave expected to move through the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday, and thus can justify no more than chance pops during this period. Convective indices suggest thunder potential and will carry this in the grids as well. The system should be progressive enough to prevent any prolonged rainfall or significant hydrologic potential, and this likely represents the only opportunity for rainfall through the seven day forecast.
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