The two week flip flop pattern emerges.
It's to early to say it but this pattern seems to be repeating. 15 days of warmth followed by 15 days of cold followed by 15 days of warmth and so on. The rest of November looks to be cold while the first half of December looks like it will be warm. See the example below:
Monday, December 12, 60 degrees
Thursday, December 15, 16 degrees.
A special weather statement for central Indiana.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 337 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2022 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-121700- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery- Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke- Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan- Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew- Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon 337 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2022 ...Light Snow Accumulations This Morning... Light snow is expected this morning across central Indiana. Most locations will receive around one half inch of snow accumulation, but localized amounts of around one inch may occur. Most of the snow accumulation will be on elevated surfaces and grassy areas but some slick spots on roads could develop, especially on bridges and overpasses. Significant travel impacts are not expected.
#BOTS fans!
It's way too early to tell with 100% certainty but it looks like there's a chance for snow during the middle of next week.
#BOTS!
#BOTS!
.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 A large upper trough will be approaching the area for the end of the work week. A surface cold front will accompany the trough and move through midday into the late evening on Friday. Meanwhile, the remnants of tropical system Nicole will be absorbed into the upper flow and impact much of the eastern third of the country. There continues to be a trend for some of the rain from the remnants of Nicole to reach eastern Indiana. Model ensembles agree with the deterministic ones, so confidence is high enough to expand low PoPs across roughly the southeastern third to half of the forecast area. Rainfall amounts would be light though, with the vast majority of moisture farther east. The cold front coming in from the west won`t have any moisture to work with there as it will all have been robbed by the tropical system, so will not have any PoPs associated with it for central Indiana. Friday will also be fairly breezy ahead and along the front with gusts potentially reaching up to 25 to 30 mph throughout the day. With the cold front moving through on Friday, temperatures will only rise a little, up to around 60 across the SE, before becoming steady or falling west. Lows Friday night into Saturday will drop to the upper 20s. The upper trough axis will move through on Saturday, keeping clouds across the area. Any lake effect snow showers look to remain northeast of central Indiana. Otherwise, high pressure will settle in behind the front, so keeping a dry but much colder weekend in the forecast. Temperatures the remainder of the period will remain fairly steady with highs ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s and lows generally in the mid to upper 20s. The exception will be Saturday and Sunday nights where the lows look to drop to the low 20s as the high passes overhead. Uncertainty ramps back up for Tuesday`s forecast due to a lack of consensus on the next system set to move in. Models are showing a surface low potentially moving through the Ohio Valley and could bring precipitation with it. There is a bit more agreement than the previous forecast so have accepted the introduction of PoPs for Tuesday. Depending on how things pan out with this system, would not be surprised by snow and a rain/snow mix Tuesday. It`s too far out to nail down any details but certainly not buying some of the deterministic solutions that are projecting several inches of snow. Around an inch or less would be more realistic given the time of year and the likelihood that precip should impact the area during the day, but again, it`s too far out to nail down any amounts just yet.
This is the last week of summer weather.
This is your last chance to enjoy the warm weather. Every day will be sunny and slightly warm through Friday, November 11. After that, a cold front moves in and we could see some snow next week. Enjoy!
#BOTS
Where is winter? The winter weather outlook for 2022-23
It looks like we are going to have a slight La Nina for the upcoming winter. It should last until March of 2023. A weak La Nina is the slight cooling of pacific ocean temperatures. Most of the cold air will be locked up in northwest Canada and then it will make slightly angled attacks into the northern plains, the upper midwest and the northeast. That's also where the best chances are for seeing some big snow storms.
The storm track wants to dive in from the west coast into Colorado and then track to our north or just over northern Indiana and Chicago. This storms will bring down punches of cold air behind them. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this year looks a like a bunch rain-to-snow setups or more ice storms because we are right on the boundary of the preferred storm track and the cold air. That's all I have for now. There are my first thoughts but anything can always change.
For right now, enjoy the first two weeks of November. They will be pleasant. Cold air tries to make an attack around November 15th. Rain looks likely this coming Saturday.
#BOTS!
.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Highlights: * Well above normal temperatures * Rain chances Friday night through Saturday The beginning of the long term will be highly influenced by an amplified upper level pattern. By Thursday night, much of the Ohio Valley will be encompassed in very warm return flow from the SW. This will lead to near record warmth over the state. Current expectations are for highs in the mid 70s on Friday (Friday`s record is 78 for IND). There will be an influx of upper level cirrus associated with a near saturated layer around 300mb and a strong jet streak, but this should have only marginal impacts on day-time highs. Moisture will slowly infiltrate the lower levels out ahead of a low pressure system Friday night through Saturday. Precipitation onset trends have pushed towards a slower solution, typical of occluding lows over the Eastern Midwest. This is also associated with a relatively dry 0-3km layer over IN/KY ahead of the cold front. Still, light showers cannot be ruled out as a deep saturated layer forms above 3km within an area of weak isentropic lift. As the front nears, more intense ascent should help mix moisture, leading to more consistent precipitation over central Indiana through the afternoon and evening hours. Most of the showers on Saturday shouldn`t have any lightning, but there will be a shallow unstable layer that develops Saturday afternoon as the surface begins to saturate. With a highly dynamic system, any instability could lead to isolated thunderstorms. This also could lead to a high wind threat with a LLJ of 60kts developing simultaneously. This LLJ will limit frontal progression as the mean flow becomes parallel, continuing rain chances into Saturday night. A slight cooldown is possible Saturday Night into Sunday morning behind the low pressure system, but warmth returns rather quickly for the remainder of the long term. Current expectations are for highs near 70 and lows near 50 Sunday through Wednesday.
The National Weather Service just issued it winter weather outlook for 2022-23.
The 30 second preview:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1583116174203944961
The full report:
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina
A slight warming trend before chaos next week
Temperatures will gradually warm up. Expect a high temperature of 77 on Sunday. That will feel great. Next week brings total chaos. Just about anything and everything is on the table. Here are the players on the field: A cold front moving in, a storm in the plains and tropical storm coming in off the coast. Some computer models are hinting at the idea that they all want to meet up somewhere in the Midwest.
#BOTS fans!
There's a tiny chance to see snow flurries tomorrow.
Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 * Widespread freeze conditions nearly certain multiple mornings early-mid week, particularly Tuesday Night which would officially end growing season Model guidance remains consistent on the overall pattern for the week with a very large and anomalously deep closed low roughly over the Great Lakes early in the week before it steadily pulls north/northeastward toward next weekend. Models have been trending towards slightly better chances for precipitation tonight which could continue into Tuesday over the far north counties as the fetch from the backside of the low pulls down lake effect moisture into the area. Given the below freezing temperatures in the forecast for early Tuesday morning, the long term could start out with some light snow or a rain/snow mix. The ground should still be warm enough that there wouldn`t be more than light accumulations on grass from overnight. The long term will start out much colder than normal behind the passage of a cold front with highs for the first few days staying in the 40s to near 50 and overnight lows near to below freezing. Tuesday night will see the best chance for widespread freezing temperatures with a good chance of a hard freeze that night. This should allow for the end of the growing season if the area does not see that tonight. Thus, will not be issuing any further frost/freeze headlines at this time. For the latter half of the work week and into the weekend, the upper low will slowly exit to the NE allowing for broad ridging to move in. At the surface, a return to SW flow will also lead to a warming trend for the end of the week. By the weekend temperatures are expected to reach above normal with highs getting into the lower 70s. Models are then showing, with great variability, another trough approaching the area at the tail end of the period. This could bring a better chance of much needed precipitation to central Indiana but given the uncertainties, confidence is low for now.
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