It cloudy in Bloomington with a temperature of 33F. The barometric pressure is 30.13in. Expect a warming trend this week. We could see temperatures in the 50's by Saturday. There are some very strange things going on in the weather that will make February difficult to forecast. I'm seeing strong punches of cold air coming in followed by warm ups. The question is how strong and lasting are the cold shots and how strong and lasting are the warm ups. This will be a repeating pattern throughout February. Weather dot com has come out with a forecast for February as "Much above average" for our area.
That would leave us at below average for snow this winter. I know they are the big media guys an everyone trusts them but I would like to get back to the "very strange things" I mentioned earlier.
1. One and possibly two more low pressure systems show up on the east coast in long range data. It's doesn't not mean that there will be another storm like Jonas, but the model guidance flirts with the idea.
2. In 2004, 2005, 2011, 2014 & 2015 we saw very large Bering Sea storms. Another one of those is being hinted at in the model. One of deepens and weakens so rapidly that it goes in retrograde motion (from right to left as most storm travel from west to east).
3. A gulf low pops up and quickly disappears.
On the other hand, the indicies show a pattern change to colder air around mid February. I'm seeing:
-AO, -NAO and slightly +PNA.
At this time I'm sticking with alternating pushes of warm and cold air throughout February.
Cold punch, warm punch, lock, load & repeat.
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