The latest news from the NWS.

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

Rainy weather is expected today through Thursday. An area of low
pressure is expected to develop over the southern plains and push
along a frontal boundary across Indiana before exiting the area on
Thursday afternoon. Abundant showers are expected as these
features pass.

On Thursday evening...much colder and windy weather is expected in
the wake of the exiting cold front. Wind chill readings on
Thursday evening will fall to the lower 20s.

Dry and cold weather is then expected for much of the weekend into
early next week. Highs through the weekend will struggle to reach
the lower 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

Low pressure is centered over Mississippi with a warm front
stretching northeast through Tennessee and into eastern Kentucky.
For the update...adjusted hourly PoPs/timing to better match radar
trends, but no appreciable change to the overall forecast for today
of rain on and off throughout the day and little change in
temperature. Previous discussion follows...

Favorable set-up for rain today. The GFS and NAm continue to keep
the SW flow in place across the region today...pushing the upper
support upstream across Indiana. 300K GFS Isentropic surface
through the day shows moderate lift with specific humidities over
7 g/kg. Meanwhile forecast soundings show a deeply saturated
through the day as do the time heights. HRRR suggests bands of
precip pushing across the state through the day. Thus will trend
toward the ongoing categorical pops today. Given the expected
clouds and rain will trend highs at or below the NBM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

Active weather is set to continue tonight through Thursday night.
DRy but colder weather will arrive on Friday.

GFS and NAM shows surface low pressure development over
LA/Arkansas today. This low is expected to push northeast toward
the ohio Valley tonight before reaching Lake Erie on Thursday. An
overrunning pattern remains in place across Indiana tonight and
Thursday with surface ne winds in place and a quick and moist SW
flow in place aloft. Forecast soundings and Time heights continue
to indicate a saturated column tonight and again on Thursday
morning as the low passes. Furthermore broad isentropic lift is
expected to continue into early Thursday ahead of the approaching
cold front. Thus will continue the nearly categorical pops
tonight and again trend temps at or above the NBM...which will
really be pretty steady state while rain is falling ahead of the
front.

Models suggest the deep low exits the area on Thursday morning as
the cold front passes across the state. Mid levels suggest a dry
slot working in aloft around the upper system. this along with the
morning FROPA should bring an effective end to precip on Thursday
morning as best moisture and forcing is lost. This is revealed
within the forecast soundings which quickly show a drying column
through the day with trapped stratocu and cold air advection
begins behind the front. Thus will stick with the NBM pops due to
uncertainty with precise timing with the cold front...but Highest
pops will be east where the front will exit last. Speaking of
cold air advection on Thursday...Morning 850mb temps near 6C are
expected to fall to -4C to -8C by late afternoon and evening. Thus
we will expected steady or falling temperatures through the day.
Furthermore...the strong pressure gradient in place along with the
the arrival of the dry slot may result in windy conditions. Will
still hold off on Wind advisory for now. By Thursday
evening...temps in the mid to lower 30s will be present across
Central Indiana with 20-30mph winds. This will result in wind
chill readings in the lower 20s on Thursday Evening. Rather
uncomfortable for outdoor activities. Look for the first below
freezing temps on early Friday morning. No freeze warning needed
as growing season has been declared over. Hello Winter!

On Friday and Friday night a secondary upper trough is poised to
push across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This system looks to
have only Pacific moisture to work with and forecast soundings
continue to keep a dry column across the area. Meanwhile at the
surface strong high pressure over the deep south extends a ridge
axis across Indiana through the day. Thus will trend toward a dry
forecast and stick close to the NBM on temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...

Issued at 237 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

Dry weather is expected for the start of the long term period with
more active weather near the end. An upper level low pressure
system and associated weak surface front are forecast to move
through near the start of the period. Precipitation looks unlikely
during the frontal passage with limited moisture and weak
forcing. Following the weak frontal passage, high pressure will
return with quiet weather expected through Monday night. A
stronger upper level low pressure system is expected to near the
area late Monday into Tuesday bringing chances for rain. This far
out, confidence in positioning and strength of the upper level low
pressure system remains low. With the high uncertainty, plan on
maintaining low POPs with a maximum during the day Tuesday when
the ensembles are in most agreement for the frontal passage.

Temperatures will be well below average through the period with
highs in the 40s from Saturday and Sunday and the upper 40s to mid
50s on Monday through Wednesday. Lows will range from the upper
20s to the upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 301800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1257 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

Poor flying conditions through the period. IFR and lower ceilings
through 18z tomorrow with slow improvement after that.
Visibilities will bounce around in rain through the overnight as
well, and could see 1 mile or less at times late tonight. Winds
today out of the ENE around 4 to 10 kts will shift to northwesterly
tomorrow and increase in speed. Wind gusts will pick up tomorrow
by late morning and could see gusts over 30 kts during the
afternoon after the cold frontal passage.

&&