Mimi #bots fans!

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through MOnday|/...
Issued at 401 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020

Forecast challenges focus on precip chances and type on Saturday as
an overrunning precip setup develops with a frontal boundary south
of the region across the Tennessee Valley.

An upper low that was located across the Four Corners region this
morning will get absorbed into the quasi-zonal flow aloft that will
develop Saturday with the remnant upper wave tracking across the
region late day Saturday in tandem with a surface wave riding along
the frontal boundary across the Tennessee Valley. This will result
in an overrunning precipitation event for Saturday into Saturday
evening as a low level jet noses into the lower Ohio Valley. The
presence of the surface high to the northeast of the area will
maintain a dry cool flow across all of central Indiana with the
potential for rain to mix with snow in some areas through the day
and potential for snow to become the primary precip type at times.
The best threat to see snow will be from the morning into the mid
afternoon...with rain likely being more predominant later in the day
as the boundary layer warms.

Model guidance continues to overestimate potential snowfall amounts
on Saturday due to a variety of reasons. Think models are having
trouble capturing the impact that will come from surface and ground
temps that will remain above freezing. With precip rates not
anticipated to be very strong...any snow that mixes in with rain or
falls solo will likely melt to some degree on contact through the
day. With poor snow to liquid ratios to boot...am not anticipating
any more than an inch in spots and expect that might be overdone.
Not expecting any impacts to travelers as roads will be fine and any
whitening will be confined primarily to elevated surfaces. More than
anything...any snow that falls will serve as a reminder that winter
has not quite left yet.

Precip will end Saturday evening as the upper wave and surface low
shift off to the east. High pressure will then build into the region
for Sunday and Monday with dry weather and seasonable conditions.
Expect mainly clear skies through MOnday morning with clouds
increasing later in the day in advance of a frontal boundary that
will move into the region late Monday night into Tuesday.

Temps...nudged highs closer to the cooler end of the guidance
envelope Saturday with the precip and clouds. Should see upper 30s
and lower 40s most areas. Temperatures will gradually warm back into
the 50s by Monday with lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. An
overall model blend will work well from Saturday night through
Monday.