Triage

tri·age:  (noun) [in medical use] the assignment of degrees of urgency to wounds or illnesses to decide the order of treatment of a large number of patients or casualties.

Severe weather will ramp up after 7:00PM this evening. There's a small chance for tornadoes and we are currently under a Flood Watch. If you add to this the COVID-19 recommendations, you see that we have a lot to plan for in the next 24 hours. How do you practice “Social distancing” when tornado procedures require everyone to hunker down in close quarters in the safest place? If a business is open, but, closed to the public due to the coronavirus, should they open temporarily as a safe place for people caught in flooding waters or tornadoes? If people are trapped in flooding waters or have been injured by damaging winds, how does this affect the response to their treatment? Does it take away necessary resources from people fighting to stop the coronavirus? There are a lot of questions here that I don't have the answers to so I would recommend staying home. Just stay inside. Don't go out. If you happen to hear the tornado sirens, go to your basement or safe place. If your basement or safe place is not big enough for your family to practice “social distancing” then do what you think is best. Triage. Take care of the most important emergency first and deal with the others later. Above all, stay safe.

Here is the latest analysis from the National Weather Service office in Indianapolis: (sorry that they use some kind of a weird text font, I can never figure it out):

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...

Issued at 353 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

Lingering drizzle and some patchy fog is left over the lower
Great Lakes region early this morning in the wake of an upper-
level shortwave. Currently, a weak warm front lies across central
Indiana with a subtle temperature gradient. Temperatures overnight
range from the low 40s to the north and the mid 50s towards the
south.

Precipitation will come in two rounds today. A mesoscale convective
complex currently over Oklahoma, will progress northeastward
ahead of the aforementioned trough attributable to a moderated
low-level jet. This will bring rain with a few embedded
thunderstorms to the region this morning. Dewpoints behind this
complex have been in the low 60s throughout the day yesterday, and
model guidance has supported this trend to continue today. The
next round of precipitation will be primarily due to a semi-
organized low pressure system currently situated over the western
Plains. A secondary trough over southern Canada will also play a
role in the evolution of this system. Convective devlopment is
likely with this second round of precipitation.

Upper-air analysis depicts this low pressure system as relatively
stacked throughout most levels. This will impede cyclogenesis and
elongate the surface trough throughout the day. The previously
mentioned secondary trough over Canada will aid in lowering
heights over the northern Great Lakes, producing a closed low at
850mb. This will play a major role in enhancing the low-level jet
over Indiana this evening and overnight. Forcing at 500mb and
above will be fairly weak with this event in contribution to the
sub-tropical jet well west of Indiana during most of the event.
This will limit upper- level diffluence and progression of the
surface trough.

Cloud cover looks to remain throughout the day and will hinder
destabilization this afternoon. Although, dew points in the low
60s along with moderate mid-level lapse rates will provide enough
instability to promote convective development through the evening
and overnight. Any breaks in the cloud cover could increase
convective activity later in the evening. Wind shear will be ample
throughout the day and overnight to support updraft development
and multicell thunderstorms.

There is a potential for severe weather within this second event.
Adequate directional shear this evening supported by 10-15kt SSW
winds at the surface and SW 45-55kt winds between 850 and 700mb
will be enough to produce mesocyclones within convective cells.
The limiting factor will be the lack of sufficient lapse rates in
the low-levels, limiting updraft strength and therefor
thunderstorm longevity. CAPE values between 500 and 800 J/kg are
possible, but values exceeding 1000 J/kg look to be limited to
areas west and south of central Indiana. Continued monitoring of
the environmental conditions after the passage of this morning`s
MCC will be essential for better understanding of this evening
and tonight`s severe potential. Instability prognoses amongst
models various and will impact the extent of tonight`s severity.
For now, winds greater than 60 mph, with isolated hail and a few
tornadoes are possible. Greatest threat for severe weather will be
between 22Z and 08Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday Night/...

Issued at 353 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

There is a slight chance of lingering showers over central Indiana
to start the day Friday. Greater chances for precipitation exist in
our SE counties, as Thursdays convection and a sudo dry-line
progresses through. Once the cold front passes through, all rain
should come to a halt for the rest of the short term as high
pressure builds into the region.

Temperatures Friday morning will remain warm prior to the cold front
passage. Morning highs near 60 are possible with temperatures
dropping into the low 40s by Friday evening. Temperatures will
remain cool through Saturday in the with highs near 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...

Issued at 323 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The models are showing that a messy pattern is in play through
the long term with several waves and chances of precipitation for
most of the period. Confidence is low for Sunday and Sunday night
as dry easterly air may limit moisture in the area and brief
ridging is expected to move in late Sunday night through Monday.
But with lower temperatures at the start of the period, snow could
mix in with rain at times. By Monday night, another wave is
projected to bring in more chances of precip followed by several
more waves through Thursday. Confidence on the exact timing of
rain is still somewhat low, but further detail should become
clearer in the coming days. The temperatures will be trending
upwards throughout the week. Accepted guidance given decent
agreement among the long range models.


&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 191800Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

Initial band of warm advection rain/embedded lightning strikes
expected to affect the terminals through about 192100Z, according
to short term model data. This may result in precipitation
becoming more scattered in nature later this afternoon and
evening. Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings/visibilities may tend to
improve from the south later this afternoon and evening, with the
passage of the warm front.

Model data suggest another area of organized lift may move over
the terminals after about 200400Z. This may result in another
enhanced threat for rain/thunderstorms after that time.

Surface winds this afternoon 130-160 degrees at 9-13 kts are
expected to gradual veer to 190-210 degrees by late evening.
Occasional surface gusts in excess of 20 kts should become more
frequent by this evening, as a 55-65 kt low level jet moves
overhead. Threat for low level wind shear will also increase this
evening, given the strength of the low level jet.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for INZ060>065-067>072.