Rain is coming soon.

We had a couple of great days this week but that is coming to an end. Rain starts this evening and lasts until Monday morning. I know this is going to be tough on people who want to get outside but please stay inside. Here's the latest analysis from the NWS:

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020

A front will meander across the area into Saturday before being
finally swept east by a low pressure system on Sunday. This setup
will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area at times, with
heavy rain and perhaps some strong storms possible. Another low
pressure system could bring more rain next week. For the most
part, temperatures will be near normal to above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of This Afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020

Areas of showers and a few thunderstorms continue to develop this
afternoon, mainly focusing on the far north and far south parts of
the area. Expect more precipitation to develop along the northern
forecast area with an upper wave moving through. Will go high
PoPs there into this evening. For most of the south, went chance
or lower PoPs after this first round currently there moves
through.

PoPs will then diminish from north to south tonight as a front
slides south through the area. However, some increase in PoPs will
occur late tonight as another upper wave approaches. Will keep PoPs
in the chance or lower category though.

On Friday, the front will try to work north. Various impulses will
move in the upper flow, and these will interact with the front to
produce some showers and a few thunderstorms. However, confidence is
low on timing and location of better forcing. Thus, kept PoPs in the
chance category for now during the day most areas. If details become
clearer, then PoPs may be upped where needed to give a better idea
of timing.

Storms this afternoon have produced some hail, and if a storm gets
tall enough, wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated severe hail
report. This agrees with the SPC`s Marginal outlook tonight through
Friday.

NBM looks too warm tonight with some cooler air sneaking in behind
the front. Went closer to a blend of raw model data. NBM could be a
little warm for highs Friday as well, depending on how fast the
front moves north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020

Warm and wet weather is expected during the bulk of the short term
period as a strong low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes
by Sunday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected at
times from Friday night into Saturday evening, with chances
rapidly waning late Saturday night into Sunday as the cold front
passes. There will be a low but non zero threat for severe storms
Saturday into Saturday evening, with isolated large hail and
damaging winds the primary threats, particularly with a low level
jet likely to approach 50-60KT.

A strong pressure gradient and steep low level lapse rates aside
from thunderstorms will produce strong and gusty prevailing winds
as well, particularly Saturday afternoon into Sunday evening,
with the strongest winds expected Sunday. Sustained winds Sunday
of 15-25 MPH with widespread gusts of 30-40 MPH will be common,
with a few gusts in excess of 40 MPH possible. This will
particularly pose a threat to any temporary outdoor facilities set
up or high profile vehicles driving on north/south oriented
roadways.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020

The long term period looks milder, with temperatures near normal.
After a brief break from precipitation earlier in the week, a
closed low will move through the region Tuesday into Wednesday,
meriting chances for showers, although thunder does not appear
particularly likely at this time.

Blended initialization handled this period well and required only
minor adjustments.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 261800Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020

Conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR by 00Z and then
remain there for much of the rest of the period.

Most of the current showers and thunderstorms to the west look to
miss the TAF sites early on, but expect convection to increase in
coverage during the afternoon, especially for KLAF and KIND. Showers
will continue into the evening before diminishing in coverage.

Can`t rule out a thunderstorm at any TAF site into this evening, but
expected coverage is too low to mention.

A front will sink south through the area into this evening, so quick
wind shifts will occur as it passes.