.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday Night/... Issued at 342 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 Precipitation... A small, but well organized shortwave will progress through the Midwest on Wednesday. Given a deep column of warm gulf moisture and moderate isentropic lift, extended periods of rain are likely throughout the afternoon and evening. Continued vigorous warm air advection will prolong the rain threat overnight Wednesday, even with the lack of significant upper-level support. Scattered showers will remain throughout the morning on Thursday, but extend should diminish associated with a weakened low-level jet. A more amplified trough and low pressure system will approach Indiana Thursday evening, where precipitation chances will once again increase. Rain, heavy at times, will be prominent throughout the night. Over the two day stretch, up to 2 inches is possible, with locally higher amounts. Thunderstorms... Convection will be limited on Wednesday due to a strong surface based inversion beneath a robust stream of WAA. Some embedded thunder is possible, but extent should be limited. Thunderstorm probabilities will increase Thursday evening as increased surface heating and steeper mid-level lapse rates will set up over the region. Current model ensembles depict CAPE below 1000 J/kg over most of central Indiana. However, this should be adequate for convection provided with surface dewpoints in the low 60s, and a minimal CAP. Morning rainfall and cloud cover could restrict convective develop so Chc probability for thunder was kept. The possibility for severe thunderstorms Thursday night is limited but does exist as the low-level jet increases and provides a better zone of optimal wind shear. The lack of a significant surface cyclone and diurnal cooling will be the most notable limiting factors. Mesoscale influences, will have a large impact on the extent and severity of thunderstorms Thursday night, and will need to be monitored in the coming days. For now, severe consideration is left out of the forecast given the low confidence. Temps... Temps will rise throughout the short term as southwest flow pushes a warm, moist airmass over the Midwest. Prolonged cloud cover and rainfall during peak diurnal warming will damper high temperatures for Wednesday. Expect highs to hover around 60. Robust WAA overnight Wednesday will limit diurnal cooling and lay the foundation for a rise in temperatures Thursday. Specific highs will depend on the extend of rain and cloud cover in the afternoon, but general highs in the upper 60s are likely with some areas exceeding 70. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Monday Night/... Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 ECMWF suggests a strong cold front quickly crossing Central Indiana on Friday morning. Thus will continue to carry at least a low chance for morning pops ahead of the front given the change of air mass. Look for falling temperatures through the course of the day in the wake of the front. Cooler High pressure is then depicted to be pushing across the Great Lakes through Sunday...resulting dry and cooler weather for the weekend. By Monday and and Monday night the surface high is depicted to push east of Indiana as the upper flow shows mainly zonal flow with weak forcing present. THus with a more southerly and warmer surface flow in play...low chances pops have been used on Monday but confidence remains very low for now.
Rain is coming.
It's going to rain on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Here's the latest from the NWS:
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