The hurricanes and tropical storms are taking over winter and keeping us warm. Welcome Tropical Storm Zeta.
A week from this coming weekend we get two more of them at the same time.
Rain and storms on tap for today.
Most people tend to forget about this but we have two severe weather seasons in Indiana. One is in the spring and the other is in the fall. Currently, we are under a marginal risk for sever weather today.
#BOTS alert for next week.
#BOTS fans should pay attention to next week and on Halloween. The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has this to say:
.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Although, the forecast will start off with unsettled weather Monday and Monday night as strong southeastward expanding Canadian high forces yet another cold front southeast across central Indiana. Deep moisture and moderately strong dynamics, including the area being in the right rear quadrant of a 140 knot upper jet over southern Ontario, suggests widespread and then good chance PoPs in the wake of the cold front Monday and Monday night. After that, not a lot of forcing as weakening Canadian high pressure builds in. That said, would not rule out a shower or midweek with cyclonic flow overhead. Finally, late in the long term, the eyes will be focusing on a potent upper vortex, that will be an early cold season wintry weather maker over the southern Plains. At this point, the GFS is trending way to fast so, so much so that even the GEFS is discounted. Prefer the slower ECMWF and ECENS, that typically verify better with these early cold season harbingers. That said, the blend was painting small PoPs through most of the rest of the long term and if there is precipitation around during the pre-dawn, some brief non-accumulating snow could briefly mix in over northwestern sections of central Indiana starting Monday night. In general, thick cloud cover and thermals support 5 to 10 degree below normal blend temperatures with afternoon highs mostly in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s.
From warm to cold to warm again.
LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday Night/... Issued at 341 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020 Synoptic setup early in the extended period consists of a stationary frontal boundary extending from the Southern Plains northeastward through the Ohio Valley and into New England. This will provide some weak forcing across the southeast two-thirds of central Indiana early Tuesday for low rain chances. Moisture will be limited though, and all of central Indiana is progged to be dry by Tuesday afternoon. Nonetheless, there will be a quick uptick in rain chances from Tuesday night into Wednesday when a surface frontal system moves through with a 50-60 kt low level jet in its warm sector. Meanwhile, weak troughing aloft will move through the Great Lakes Region. After that though, any upper forcing will be limited until late in the extended period when the next trough moves through from Thursday night through Friday night. So, any low precipitation chances from Wednesday night through Thursday will only be fueled by a lingering surface frontal boundary, and these chances are low confidence. Meanwhile, strong warm advection in the aforementioned warm sector will bump daytime highs into the upper 60s/low 70s on Wednesday and even low to upper 70s on Thursday. The cooler weather, however, will return over the weekend after a cold front drifts through central Indiana.
Fun and games start next week!
This is not a forecast. It's just a reminder that we are entering that time of year again when frozen precipitation starts to show up in the Ohio Valley as we approach November. Enjoy the eye candy.
Frost and freeze warnings are out for Monroe County Indiana
Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 335 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-151545- /O.NEW.KIND.FZ.W.0007.201016T0600Z-201016T1400Z/ Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery- Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke- Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan- Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew- Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport, Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon 335 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central, south central, southeast, southwest and west central Indiana. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rural areas and favored colder spots may see temperatures fall into the upper 20s. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing.
Some eye candy for all the #BOTS fans out there.
This likely will not happen but it's great to see the GFS kick out a random snow event in our area this early.
Burl's Winter Weather Theory
Winter officially begins on Monday, December 21 at 5:02AM EST.
Unofficially, meteorological winter starts on December 1 and ends on February 28.
I have a theory. I think the October weather pattern repeats itself as the official winter weather pattern. I don't have data to back this up so that is what I will be paying attention to this winter. If this month is any indication of the future, expect a rollercoaster of a ride with above average temperatures followed by below average temperatures. Here is the current October trend:
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