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Cicada update.
By my count, this marks the end of week five for the cicadas. I did hear a few of them today so they are still around but in ever decreasing numbers. I am confident that by next Friday or July 2nd that they will all be dead and gone. What an experience!
We dodged a bullet for now but we are not out of the woods just yet.
The computer models have shifted the heaviest rain to our immediate north western counties. This means we'll only see about two to three inches of rain between now and Tuesday. Whew! We dodged a bullet on that one but we are not out of the woods yet. Here is the latest thinking from the NWS:
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 129 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 941 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Remnants of an overnight MCS are moving through NW portions of central Indiana this morning producing up to an inch of rain in some areas. Observations have signaled occasional lightning strikes in some of the stronger convective cells. Expectations are for this to move to the north; However, another line of thunderstorms behind this looks to further expand rain chances for the late morning and early afternoon. More frequent lightning and heavy rain rates have been observed within this line of thunderstorms. The resurgence of the LLJ and continued moist surface environment will lead to another round of convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon with rain and thunderstorm chances through the rest of today. With strong low level flow and moderate mid level lapse rates (7 C/km), severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for this afternoon and evening. The extent of severe weather will largely depend on if the near surface layer can destabilize between MCS clusters along with the general timing of initiation of the pending afternoon MCS. More updates expected later as the afternoon environment comes to fruition, allowing for a better understanding of the severe potential. && .Short Term...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Showers continue to increase in coverage across central Indiana early this morning as southwest low level flow strengthens across the mid Mississippi Valley east into the region. An ongoing convective cluster highlighted by a bowing line of storms extended from western Illinois west into Missouri. 07Z temperatures ranged from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Active forecast over the next 36 hours with the main focus on locally heavy rainfall and potential flooding. A sneaky sidebar though with a few severe storms possible...especially later today... with still a lot of detail yet to be worked out with regards to how everything evolves. Upper level ridge over the southern states in the process of being suppressed as a strong upper low tracks across James Bay. In between is a quasizonal regime with a hint of SW flow. Amplification of an upper trough into the northern Plains later today into the weekend will serve to sharpen the southwest flow aloft pointed at the region and particularly the lower Great Lakes with strong ridging remaining to the southeast. Several waves aloft will traverse through the flow and across the region aided by multiple surface lows along a slow moving boundary. the first of these surface waves will track northeast from the mid Mississippi Valley this morning into lower MIchigan this evening. The initial issue is exactly how the convective cluster to the west evolves over the next 6-8 hours and what kind of impact it brings to the forecast area...perhaps as early as daybreak or shortly thereafter. The airmass remains far more stable over central Indiana at the moment than it is near where the cluster is currently. With only a subtle increase in instability through mid morning...expect a general weakening to the convection as it approaches the Wabash Valley...but the presence of weak instability aloft will enable storms to continue through the morning. In addition...enhanced 850mb flow will persist over the region throughout much of the day and considering the progressively deeper moisture overspreading the area evidence by dewpoints already in the upper 60s and PWATs rapidly approaching 2 inches. Convection is likely to impact the forecast area through mid afternoon as it tracks slowly through the region. Expect gusty southwest winds to near 25mph. By late afternoon and early evening...may see a bit of a lull in the wake of the earlier storms before additional convection fires with more energy aloft rolling into the region. There appears to be a narrow window during the early to mid evening where a conditional severe weather risk may exist. Damaging winds would be the primary threat...but laying in the weeds is a sneaky tornado risk with hodographs showing a few hours with 0-1km SRH values up to 200 m2/s2. The problems though is limited instability and overall poor lapse rates that would marginalize convective intensity. That being said...have seen this setup align before in the presence of a deep tropical airmass where LCLs can dip below 3kft. Not sure we can get LCLs quite that low but it is close for a short period of time. This will be something to monitor through the day. Later this evening into tonight...convection will refocus over the northwest half of central Indiana and particularly across the northern Wabash Valley in the vicinity of a low level jet with likely multiple convective clusters with the potential for torrential rainfall and flooding concerns as storms train across the same areas. Will maintain the Flood Watch in its current state over our northwest not just for rain and storms today but especially for tonight. For Saturday...the ridge focused to the east of the area will subtly retrograde through the day with the axis of heavy rainfall likely shifting even further northwest perhaps into northern Illinois and far northwest Indiana. Deep moisture and stronger instability will maintain the potential for isolated to scattered convection but the lack of better forcing aloft as it shifts north of the area may minimize more widespread convection throughout the day. Lower than desired confidence in the details and will largely nudge pops lower than previously forecast. Still could see stronger storms and perhaps a damaging wind gust. Torrential rainfall and localized flooding will remain however the primary concern from storms. Temps...persistent clouds and the convection today will keep temps lower in the upper 70s and lower 80s before rebounding into the mid and upper 80s Saturday with the potential for more sun. Lows tonight will be muggy in the lower 70s. && .Long Term...(Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Ensemble means suggest an upper trough, initially over the Midwest this weekend, will gradually weaken and shear out across the Great Lakes by the middle of next week. At the surface, a diffuse frontal system will sag southeast through the local area by the early to middle parts of next week. The ensembles continue to indicate an unsettled pattern throughout the extended, with daily chances of convection, courtesy of the upper trough and surface front. Enhanced chances of precipitation may occur around Monday and towards the middle of next week, where the ensembles hint at possible surface waves moving through. Progged precipitable waters near or in excess of 2 inches at times suggest heavy rainfall will be possible throughout the extended. Precipitation chances may tend to diminish by next Thursday, as the upper flow gradually veers more to the west and northwest, which may serve to push the highest precipitable waters off to the southeast.
Flooding will be back this weekend.
Because of the pattern we are in, it looks we will have another flooding scenario this coming weekend. I hate to bring you the bad news but here are the latest deatails from the National Weather Service:
Another 4-6 inches of rain possible.
.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Models continue to trend toward a potential flash flood event this weekend into next week. Several days of PWAT values in the 1.80 to 2.20 inch range are anticipated as central Indiana falls into a pattern of prolonged southerly flow with surface high pressure over the southeast U.S. This will put central Indiana in a warm sector for several days as Gulf moisture continuously advects into the region. Meanwhile, the cold front will remain stalled over the Midwest and southwest into the Missouri Valley providing an area of forcing for repeated shower and thunderstorm development throughout the weekend. Currently, the best forcing is progged to be over the western portions of central Indiana where the low level jet will provide enhancement while moving along the aforementioned cold front through the weekend. Meanwhile, a broad upper trough will linger over the Upper Midwest with weak waves rotating through it, interacting with the stalled surface frontal boundary. Temperatures through the period will remain warm despite the deep saturation displayed in forecast soundings. This is due to the strong warm advection/southerly surface flow. Daytime highs through the period will easily climb into the 80s and even upper 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows will trend much the same with readings in the upper 60s/low 70s.
Bad news! More rain is coming this weekend.
We just had our once-in-a-ten-year flood over this past weekend and now it looks like more heavy rain is on the way for this weekend. Here is what he National Weather Service is thinking:
.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Things will start to heat back up once again to start the lone term as surface high pressure moves off to the east coast allowing Gulf moisture to be advected northward ahead of a warm front over the lower Mississippi Valley and central Plains and a cold front over the northern Plains. The warm front is expected to lift northeast across central Indiana Friday as the cold front approaches from the northwest. Meanwhile, a Canadian trough will dig southeast out of central Canada and result in southwest flow aloft over the Ohio Valley. This upper flow looks like it will align parallel to the cold front as the latter moves into central Indiana this weekend. Thus, the front could park out for awhile. The front, waves in the upper flow and small scale boundaries will interact with a very moist and unstable atmosphere which could bring more heavy rain and flooding to central Indiana this weekend. WPC is advertising 2 to 4 inches of QPF over the forecast area this weekend into early next week and this looks reasonable based on the above. Temperatures will be problematic as temporal and spacial considerations of the cold front and other boundaries, along with the extent of convection will be major challenges. But, overall afternoon highs in the 80s look good with perhaps some 70s in areas where the front has moved through.
Did anyone feel the earthquake yesterday?
This is the second one to happen since I've lived in Indiana. They seem to occur once every ten years.
In the news:
Cicada and Wx update for Friday June 18.
Today marks the end of week 4 and the beginning of week 5 for the cicadas. I didn't hear any of them this morning and today is hottest day of the year. The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement and a hazardous weather outlook.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 354 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-181600- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery- Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke- Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan- Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew- Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport, Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon 354 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON... A warm front will move east across central Indiana this morning. A hot and humid air mass in the wake of the front will result in afternoon temperatures in the 90s and dew point temperatures in the lower 70s. This will result in heat index values 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon, highest across the Wabash Valley. If you have outdoor activities planned for today, be sure to take precautions to guard against heat related illness. Drink plenty of water, wear light weight light colored clothing, and take frequent breaks in an air conditioned environment when possible.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 410 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-191000- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone- Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam- Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby- Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess- Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport, Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon 410 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. There is an ENHANCED RISK for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Severe storms are possible mainly after 300 PM. The main severe threats will be damaging winds. An isolated tornado and large hail will also be possible. Lightning is a threat from any thunderstorm. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will also be possible mainly tonight. Hot and humid conditions this afternoon and early evening. Max heat indices will reach 100 to 105 degrees. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. More thunderstorms are possible at times from Saturday through Monday night and again late next week. There is Marginal Risk for severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail and isolated thunderstorms are possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be requested Friday afternoon and night and or Saturday afternoon and night.
Playing the long game.
Here are the latest trends for the long term forecasts. Remember that long term forecasts are not reliable. They are only useful in spotting out trends like "likely above above average" or "likely below average" for a specified time period.
Weathertrends 360 two week outlook
Accuweather has forecasts published for September
The National Weather Service three month outlook
The National Weather Service has experimental long range forecast going through September of 2022
Here's the link to the experimental data:
Cicada update and a hot and stormy end to the week.
Happy Summer Solstice or Litha. Summer officially begins on Sunday, June 20, 2021.
Friday, June 18 marks the end of week four of the cicadas. Technically speaking, that means they have two weeks left. I can already tell a difference. The "UFO-is-landing" sounding ones are almost gone. The clicking /chirping ones are still around but not nearly as loud and I don't see them flying around as much. The end is near. My original prediction for them to be gone was July 2 but it's possible that they might be gone by June 25th. It's interesting to think about them and their 17 year cycles. The next time Brood X emerges from the ground, I will be retired, or at least I hope so.
As far as the weather goes, get read for a hot and stormy weekend. Friday, June 18 is going to very hot. Tomorrow's high could be as high as 97 degrees so be prepared and drink plenty of water. There's also an enhanced risk for storms Friday evening. The heat hangs around until Monday and then it cools off again. This is the same thing that happened last weekend so we are definitely in a pattern. Read my other post that explains the Omega Pattern.
The National Weather Service forecast discussion about this weekend is very long. I posted it below.
627 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Short Term...(Today through Friday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Surface analysis early this morning shows large high pressure centered over Ohio...continuing to extend its influence across Indiana and into the deep south. Water Vapor imagery shows strong ridging in place across the upper midwest with a ridge axis extending across MN/W WI/Lake Superior and into Ontario. Northerly flow was still in place aloft over Indiana. GOES16 shows clear skies across Indiana. Dew points across the area were mainly in the lower 50s...but some dew points in the lower 40s were found across northwest Central Indiana. Today...Models suggest the strong ridge aloft will make progress southeast...reaching the Michigan and the Great Lakes while diminishing in amplitude. The impacts of the ridge to the north continues to provide subsidence across Central Indiana today as forecast soundings and time heights show a dry column. Today...convective temperatures appear too warm even for CU formation. Thus will trend toward a mostly sunny day with highs at or above the NBM. Tonight...changes begin in our overall weather pattern. The diminished ridge axis will be east of our forecast area...resulting mainly just NW flow aloft streaming into the Great Lakes and Indiana. Subsidence is no longer in play for our area at that point. The models depict a quick moving short wave within the NW flow pushing across WI and toward northern Indiana overnight. Best moisture and forcing looks to stay across northern Indiana`s forecast area...but this still could impact our northern counties with a sideswipe. Thus will keep the evening dry for now...but trend toward increasing cloudiness overnight as convective debris clouds from upstream invade. Eventually will have pops late in the night...mainly across the northern parts of the forecast area...as the short wave and expected convection push through the area. Given the expected cloud and southerly surface flow will trend lows at or above the NBM. Friday...will be highly dependent upon the progression of the early morning convection. Models quickly allow the first short wave to depart to the east while a second short wave is projected to arrive in the later afternoon within the NW flow aloft. Forecast soundings at that time show a column quite favorable for strong and deep convection with CAPE surging over 3500 J/KG in the afternoon and easily attainable convective temperatures in the middle 80s. Furthermore a mid level thermal ridge appears in pace over Central Indiana. Finally it is possible the earlier convection could lay out an outflow boundary as a focus for lower level convergence and development on Friday afternoon. The caveats for this set up is should the previous convection depart slower or leave an extensive cloud shield in its wake...heating on Friday could be limited...which could then limit convective development on Friday afternoon. Thus for now...likely pops with chances for thunderstorms...some strong...seems a very reasonable play given the favorable features for afternoon development. Given the thermal ridge will trend highs at or above the NBM. && .Long Term...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Friday night... By Friday night, the main round of strong to severe thunderstorms will have exited the area, but there may be another round the moves through during the late overnight hours with the potential for additional severe weather. Soundings show at least some elevated instability continuing through the night with Hi-Res model guidance hinting that a cluster of storms may form around 00Z across northern Missouri and southern Iowa before progressing into the forecast area later Friday night. Confidence in this is very low due to mesoscale impacts from the previous two round of thunderstorms. Do think that the potential is there for some late night convection, so will add some additional POPs, but won`t get too focused on this due to the potential that the entire system either never initiates, or moves south of the forecast area. Saturday through Sunday... Confidence in the forecast for Saturday remains quite low due to the uncertainty related to the weather Friday and Friday night. Some models that don`t forecast the overnight convection show that there will be plenty of instability for another round of storms Saturday afternoon, but if the Friday night storms move through, then the overall coverage and intensity of convection on Saturday should be greatly diminished. This messy pattern continues into Saturday night before a brief break looks to arrive on Sunday. There looks to be a tropical system moving through the Southern Gulf States during the overnight hours Saturday and Sunday which would temporarily cut off the southerly flow. The system will push off to the east before impacting central Indiana as the next system moves into the area from the northwest. Sunday night through Wednesday... Models don`t have a solid handle on the progression of this next upper level system with model differences in both timing and intensity of the closed low that will be centered over Southern Canada. Either way, do expect widespread rain and isolated to scattered thunderstorms at some point between Monday and Tuesday evening before chances for rain begin to drop off towards the middle of next week. This system will also bring cooler weather to central Indiana with highs expected to reach only into the low to mid 70s on Tuesday. There may be a weak secondary wave that passes through Wednesday, but will trend towards a drier forecast rather than try to hone in on a weak low that`s only suggested by the Canadian.
A special weather statement
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1122 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-121730- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery- Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke- Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan- Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew- Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport, Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon 1122 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 ...HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON... As temperatures rise into the 90s today, the humid air mass will result in heat index values of 95 to 103 degrees in much of central Indiana...especially along the Wabash Valley. If you have outdoor activities planned for today, be sure to take precautions to guard against heat related illness. Drink plenty of water, wear light weight light colored clothing, and take
frequent breaks in an air conditioned environment when
We are half way there!
Based on my own observations in my back yard, I first heard the cicadas on Friday, May 21st. That was three weeks ago from today. Given that the average lifespan of a cicada is six weeks, we have three weeks left to deal with them. I predict that they will all be dead by July 2nd.
The weather is going to be hot and humid from Friday through Monday. There's about a 40% chance of storms today and tomorrow. By Tuesday it starts to cool off again because we are in an omega pattern.
We have not had any tornadoes in a long time. This is so unusual for Indiana. Here's an interesting article about this:
May snaps long-standing streak for strong tornadoes in US
The GFS computer model is also suggesting a lot of rain over the next ten days.
Take a look at this:
Interesting omega pattern setting up for summer.
Now that I've said, just watch the pattern change with tomorrow's data. If want a cooler than normal summer then you'll love the omega pattern which looks like this:
Here are different forecasts for next 378 hours or 15 days. Can you spot the pattern?
Flood Warning & Cicadas
Yes, the cicadas will survive this too!
A Flood Warning just went into effect.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1215 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 INC013-081-105-109-021915- /O.NEW.KIND.FA.W.0002.210602T1615Z-210602T1915Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Brown IN-Johnson IN-Monroe IN-Morgan IN- 1215 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a * Flood Warning for... Johnson County in central Indiana... Southeastern Morgan County in central Indiana... Northwestern Brown County in south central Indiana... Central Monroe County in south central Indiana... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 1215 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain has fallen across the warned area. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Indianapolis, Bloomington, Greenwood, Franklin, Martinsville, New Whiteland, Whiteland, Bargersville, Princes Lakes, Trafalgar, Morgantown, Beanblossom, Mahalasville, Spearsville, Helmsburg, Peoga, Lake Lemon, Yellowwood Lake, Unionville and Woodville Hills. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
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