The latest news from the NWS.
.SYNOPSIS... Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Rainy weather is expected today through Thursday. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southern plains and push along a frontal boundary across Indiana before exiting the area on Thursday afternoon. Abundant showers are expected as these features pass. On Thursday evening...much colder and windy weather is expected in the wake of the exiting cold front. Wind chill readings on Thursday evening will fall to the lower 20s. Dry and cold weather is then expected for much of the weekend into early next week. Highs through the weekend will struggle to reach the lower 50s. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Low pressure is centered over Mississippi with a warm front stretching northeast through Tennessee and into eastern Kentucky. For the update...adjusted hourly PoPs/timing to better match radar trends, but no appreciable change to the overall forecast for today of rain on and off throughout the day and little change in temperature. Previous discussion follows... Favorable set-up for rain today. The GFS and NAm continue to keep the SW flow in place across the region today...pushing the upper support upstream across Indiana. 300K GFS Isentropic surface through the day shows moderate lift with specific humidities over 7 g/kg. Meanwhile forecast soundings show a deeply saturated through the day as do the time heights. HRRR suggests bands of precip pushing across the state through the day. Thus will trend toward the ongoing categorical pops today. Given the expected clouds and rain will trend highs at or below the NBM. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/... Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Active weather is set to continue tonight through Thursday night. DRy but colder weather will arrive on Friday. GFS and NAM shows surface low pressure development over LA/Arkansas today. This low is expected to push northeast toward the ohio Valley tonight before reaching Lake Erie on Thursday. An overrunning pattern remains in place across Indiana tonight and Thursday with surface ne winds in place and a quick and moist SW flow in place aloft. Forecast soundings and Time heights continue to indicate a saturated column tonight and again on Thursday morning as the low passes. Furthermore broad isentropic lift is expected to continue into early Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front. Thus will continue the nearly categorical pops tonight and again trend temps at or above the NBM...which will really be pretty steady state while rain is falling ahead of the front. Models suggest the deep low exits the area on Thursday morning as the cold front passes across the state. Mid levels suggest a dry slot working in aloft around the upper system. this along with the morning FROPA should bring an effective end to precip on Thursday morning as best moisture and forcing is lost. This is revealed within the forecast soundings which quickly show a drying column through the day with trapped stratocu and cold air advection begins behind the front. Thus will stick with the NBM pops due to uncertainty with precise timing with the cold front...but Highest pops will be east where the front will exit last. Speaking of cold air advection on Thursday...Morning 850mb temps near 6C are expected to fall to -4C to -8C by late afternoon and evening. Thus we will expected steady or falling temperatures through the day. Furthermore...the strong pressure gradient in place along with the the arrival of the dry slot may result in windy conditions. Will still hold off on Wind advisory for now. By Thursday evening...temps in the mid to lower 30s will be present across Central Indiana with 20-30mph winds. This will result in wind chill readings in the lower 20s on Thursday Evening. Rather uncomfortable for outdoor activities. Look for the first below freezing temps on early Friday morning. No freeze warning needed as growing season has been declared over. Hello Winter! On Friday and Friday night a secondary upper trough is poised to push across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This system looks to have only Pacific moisture to work with and forecast soundings continue to keep a dry column across the area. Meanwhile at the surface strong high pressure over the deep south extends a ridge axis across Indiana through the day. Thus will trend toward a dry forecast and stick close to the NBM on temps. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued at 237 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Dry weather is expected for the start of the long term period with more active weather near the end. An upper level low pressure system and associated weak surface front are forecast to move through near the start of the period. Precipitation looks unlikely during the frontal passage with limited moisture and weak forcing. Following the weak frontal passage, high pressure will return with quiet weather expected through Monday night. A stronger upper level low pressure system is expected to near the area late Monday into Tuesday bringing chances for rain. This far out, confidence in positioning and strength of the upper level low pressure system remains low. With the high uncertainty, plan on maintaining low POPs with a maximum during the day Tuesday when the ensembles are in most agreement for the frontal passage. Temperatures will be well below average through the period with highs in the 40s from Saturday and Sunday and the upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday through Wednesday. Lows will range from the upper 20s to the upper 30s. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 301800z TAF issuance/... Issued at 1257 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Poor flying conditions through the period. IFR and lower ceilings through 18z tomorrow with slow improvement after that. Visibilities will bounce around in rain through the overnight as well, and could see 1 mile or less at times late tonight. Winds today out of the ENE around 4 to 10 kts will shift to northwesterly tomorrow and increase in speed. Wind gusts will pick up tomorrow by late morning and could see gusts over 30 kts during the afternoon after the cold frontal passage. &&
Backlash?
This storm is so strong that it's weakest south-western edge might hit us with a little more rain before it completely exits out of our area.
The storm has moved through as of midnight.
But, there are still strong and gusty winds associated with it as it moves northward. Check out this classic, impressive, coma-shaped circulation.
The "S" Word!
Welp, I don't like to participate in hype so I don't mention snow until the National Weather Service mentions it first, and they have. Here is the latest discussion from the National Weather Service office out of Indianapolis:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 628 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 High pressure will continue to break down tonight ahead of a strong upper level low pressure system that is expected to bring widespread rain and a few thunderstorms to the area starting late tonight and continuing through tomorrow night. Dry conditions are expected for the early parts of the work week with additional chances for rain and potentially a few snowflakes Wednesday and Thursday as another potent upper level system moves through the area. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 The overnight period will begin dry and end with rain moving into the area. A strong upper level low pressure system that is currently over the Southern Plains will begin to move northeast tonight bringing plenty of gulf moisture into the area. Rain is expected to begin after 3 AM starting from the south and moving north through the rest of the night. Winds will gradually pick up to around 30 mph as strong pressure gradients build as the surface low nears. Rainfall amounts tonight will generally be less than a quarter inch with areas north of I-70 receiving little to no rain. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the low to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/... Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 The primary focus for the period will be tracking chances for rain and possibly a few thunderstorms through Saturday night. The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to track to the northeast through the day with the center of the surface low just across the border in Illinois by 8 PM Saturday evening. The morning model runs continue to show a heavier axis of precipitation following the surface low with additional heavy rain across the southeast counties. A dry slot looks to develop during the late evening hours across much of central Indiana which may limit total rainfall amounts. With that in mind, plan on increasing the blended POPs to near 100 for much of the day before gradually lowering during the late evening into the overnight hours. Total rainfall looks to be around 1.5-2.5 inches with some locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall rates look to be fairly reasonable so even with the high amounts of QPF, widespread flooding is not expected with some isolated flooding possible. In addition to the rain, winds will gust to 30-40 mph with good pressure gradient forces and strong winds aloft in play as the system passes through. If winds aloft mix down better than anticipated, isolated wind gusts in excess of 45 mph are possible and a wind advisory may be needed in a future forecast package to account for the possibility. Chances for rain will end Sunday morning with high pressure building through the rest of the day and in place through the rest of the period. Temperatures will generally be near normal with highs upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows will fall into the low 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 The GFS remains a fast outlier with a strong midweek to late week system. Teleconnections and typical fast GFS bias favor the slower blend. The Canadian may be too slow, however. The National Blend also supports a solution near the 12z ECMWF which suggests the trough will move through next Thursday night into Friday. Could see some snow mix in Wednesday night and Thursday night, although not confident in the builder small snow accumulation as grounds will still be relatively warm. Look for a dry or mostly dry cold front to move through Wednesday which will result in below normal temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s to start the long term. Well below normal blend temperatures look reasonable with highs in the 40s and lower 50s by Wednesday and overnight lows in the lower and mid 30s Wednesday night and upper 20s Thursday night. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 260000Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 628 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 VFR conditions expected through early Saturday with rapidly deteriorating conditions thereafter as steady and locally heavy rainfall overspreads central Indiana. Thick cirrostratus remain across the area early this evening with pockets of mid level clouds. The boundary layer remains dry courtesy of an area of high pressure passing through the Great Lakes. Tropical Storm Olga currently sitting in the northern Gulf of Mexico with a cutoff upper low over the southern Plains. These two features will interact tonight into Saturday and as the high departs off to the northeast...deep tropical moisture will surge north-northeast into the Ohio Valley as the remnants of Olga transition into a strong mid latitude cyclone. After a quiet night with clouds thickening and lowering late...rain will rapidly overspread all terminals Saturday morning with IFR and lower conditions developing by midday into the afternoon. May see some decrease in rainfall coverage late day as the low tracks across the area with more scattered convection. The strength of the system will produce stronger east-southeast winds Saturday afternoon and evening with gusts at or exceeding 30kts becoming possible late day. Presence of an intense low level jet with the surface low suggests a potential for low level wind shear by the afternoon but have chosen to hold off any mention due to the strength of the surface winds and gusts. Subtle improvements in ceilings may come Saturday evening but expect restrictions to linger into Sunday morning. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
There is a 100% chance of heavy rain on Saturday.
I don't see any Flood Warnings posted at this time but please be prepared for some minor flooding on Saturday evening.
The calm before the storm.
Here are some southward facing beach pictures of Tropical Storm Nestor from last week. Many thanks to Shannon for the great pictures of the storm-whipped waves.
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver - The Weather Edition
John Oliver made some excellent points in this video. Please watch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMGn9T37eR8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMGn9T37eR8
Here's the latest!
There's a lot of buzz about the end of October. A lot of signals are pointing to a much colder pattern towards All Hallows' Eve. Some people are even posting about the possibility of snow. Just remember that a week to ten days ago the computer models suggested that we would be in a warmer pattern. This is the nature of weather. Things change rapidly and if you've lived in Indiana a long time, you know this to be true. Nonetheless, be careful about what you see on facebook and twitter.
Here's the latest discussion from the National Weather Service out of Indianapolis:
Here's the latest discussion from the National Weather Service out of Indianapolis:
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Models are close enough that the National Blend of Models initialization was accepted for most items. Quiet weather will continue throughout the short term with high pressure and upper ridging building in. Low clouds will erode tonight, but models often overdo how fast the clearing will occur. Went slower than the blend. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will then continue through the remainder of the short term. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the period. The NBM looks a bit fast on the warm up on Thursday, so trimmed a bit. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... Issued at 323 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Two frontal systems are expected to move across central Indiana during the long term. The first is a weaker system from Saturday afternoon to the early morning hours Sunday. The Euro is more aggressive on rain with this weak front than most of the other models are showing, plus the trend for rain Saturday has been diminishing as we get closer. For these reasons, kept PoPs low in this timeframe. Most of Sunday should be dry before the next frontal system approaches the area starting late Sunday night. A better chance of rain and thunderstorms across the region exists from early Monday morning through Tuesday morning ahead and along an approaching cold front, with the potential for some of the storms becoming strong to severe at times. Warm air advection will keep temperatures above normal for most of the long range before dropping back down to normal by Tuesday behind the cold front. Gustier winds are expected during the day Monday and Tuesday with wind gusts of up to 25 to 30 kts. Otherwise, winds will generally be 3 to 8 kts out of the south.
What a difference one week can make.
From the NWS:
LONG TERM (Friday Night Through Tuesday)... Issued at 258 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Models are close enough that the National Blend of Models initialization was accepted for most items. A cold front will be moving through the area early in the long term, which will bring rain chances Friday night into Saturday morning. A few strong thunderstorms are possible with the front early Friday night. Much colder air will move in for Saturday, with highs not reaching 60. High pressure will provide dry conditions through Monday, then another cold front could bring rain to parts of the area Monday night. The intialization left Tuesday dry, but wouldn`t be surprised to see low rain chances appear with later forecasts. Low temperatures may dip into the 30s during the weekend, but winds may remain high enough to limit frost formation.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)