New update from the National Weather Service includes Bloomignton.
The latest severe weather outlook issued from the National Weather Services's Storm Prediction Center now includes a slight risk for Bloomington Indiana. Yesterday it was a marginal risk. It also includes a moderate risk for Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri which is typical 'tornado alley'.
Who's ready for snow in May?
Well, specifically the GFS is giving us snow for May Day.
The big news is the severe weather outbreak in the middle of the country today. If you have family in orange shade area, you should call them and warn them about the possibilty of tornadoes today.
Specifically Wisconsin!
But, believe it or not, the Polar Vorttex will try to make a cimeback but I doubt we will see any snow. There might be snow in Canada and in the extreme nothern Great Lakes and in Maine but not in Indiana. Watch how the red heat goes to green and blue cold on the GFS model.
From 87 degrees to 37 degrees.
That's what happened in Bloomington Indiana yesterday. This is likely a taste of what summer has in store for us. If you haven't heard it yet, a "Super El Nino" is predicted for this summer.
The extreme heat is diminishing any chances for snow for this month. Friday night is the last chance to see snow.
The Ides of March will bring tornadoes and snow to south central Indiana on Sunday.
Beware the Ides of March!
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Sunday and Monday... Guidance continues to agree that a deepening upper trough will produce a potent low pressure system that will move into the lower Great Lakes by Monday morning. 850mb winds in excess of 50kt will pump warmth and moisture into the area Sunday. High temperatures could reach around 70 degrees, with surface dewpoints in the 50s. Guidance is speeding up the cold front, with the potential for it to arrive in Indiana near 00-03Z Monday and moving out of the area by 06-09Z. The system will have some instability via strong advection of warmth and moisture, but arriving earlier could add a bit more instability. With strong wind fields in place, it wouldn`t take much instability to bring down damaging winds at any rate, so will continue to mention the severe threat Sunday night. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, but a few tornadoes may be possible along the line storms given the shear. The strong wind fields will lead to another breezy/windy period Sunday into Sunday night, with gusts near 50mph possible outside of any convection. For now believe winds will remain below High Wind Warning criteria, so do not feel a watch is necessary at the moment. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed though. Wrap around precipitation on Monday will be snow as much colder air moves into the area. Some light accumulation may occur. Temperatures on Monday will only peak in the upper 20s to lower 30s most areas.
Tornadoes possible for the northern half of Indiana this evening.
If you have family living in the northern half of Indiana, you should contact them immediately and warn them to prepare for the possibility of strong tornadoes. It could be end of days! The timing is from 5pm to midnight.
Here is a very detailed analysis from the National Weather Service
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast today from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are possible, including the risk for a few strong to intense tornadoes and very large hail. ...Synopsis... A split-flow upper pattern persists across the CONUS this morning. Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the central Baja Peninsula within the southern stream and a subtle, low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Pacific Northwest within the northern stream. Surface analysis shows a large reservoir of low-level moisture from the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. General expectation is for both the southern-stream upper low and northern-stream shortwave to progress eastward today, as some modest phasing occurs between these two features. This evolution will contribute to strengthening mid-level flow across much of the Plains and MS Valley, while also resulting in increased ascent across the broad warm sector. This will result in a large area of strong to severe thunderstorms from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes, beginning during the early afternoon and persisting through the evening and overnight. Two areas within this broader region, west TX into southwest OK and the Mid MS Valley into the southern Great Lakes, have environmental conditions that support the potential for significant severe weather, including very large hail greater than 2" in diameter and strong to intense tornadoes. ...Mid MS Valley into the Southern Great Lakes... Northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move out of MT/WY this evening, accompanied by strong mid-level flow (over 100 kt at 500 mb). However, this will be well west of the moist and buoyant airmass across the Mid MS Valley. Even so, modest height falls are anticipated over the region beginning during the late afternoon. Of more consequence for the severe-weather potential, a surface low (currently over the central NE/KS border vicinity) will eject northeastward ahead of the shortwave, moving along the stationary boundary that currently extends into far southern WI. This boundary is also expected to sharpen throughout the day as low-level moisture advection persists to its south and cold, northeasterly surface winds persist to its north. Low-level convergence near the surface low and stationary front will be augmented by the previously mentioned subtle height falls to support thunderstorm development. These mesoscale details as well as which side of the stationary boundary storms develop will be key for determining the primary severe hazard. The airmass south of the stationary front is expected to be moderately to strongly unstable, as temperatures in the 80s, dewpoints in the low/mid 60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates combine to support 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. Steep mid-level lapse rates and associated moderate elevated buoyancy will persist north of the front as well. Given the subtle forcing and mesoscale character of this set up, CAM guidance varies notably on the timing and location of thunderstorm development. Kinematic profiles suggest that any surface-based warm sector development should quickly become supercellular, with all severe hazards possible, including very large hail and tornadoes. A strong to intense tornado is possible, particularly with any storms ongoing around 00Z when the low-level flow increases notably, resulting in considerable elongation of the low-level hodograph. Latest guidance suggests this tornado risk will exist into parts of far southwest Lower MI, so probabilities were expanded accordingly. Very large hail (i.e. 2"+ in diameter) will also be possible north of the front where strong deep-layer vertical shear exists. ...Southern Plains... The southern-stream upper low is forecast to eject eastward across northern Mexico today, with ascent preceding this low overspreading a West TX dryline by the afternoon. Initial storm development is anticipated over the Permian Basin/Big Bend vicinity, with moderate buoyancy and very strong vertical shear supporting a quick evolution into supercells capable of very large hail greater than 3" in diameter. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected from southwest TX into southwest OK as the upper low continues eastward. Very large hail will remain the primary severe risk although a trend towards a more linear mode is expected throughout the evening. Strong gusts could accompany the resulting squall line. The tornado risk is expected to remain low, owing primarily to the modest low-level flow. This low-level flow is expected to increase across the TX Hill Country tonight, where a relatively greater tornado risk could materialize if cells remain discrete. ...Northern OK/KS into the Lower OH Valley... Most guidance has trended towards greater thunderstorm coverage tonight near the front across northern OK and KS. Moderate buoyancy and shear will be in place, supporting strong to severe thunderstorms. Large to isolated very large hail is possible with the initial development before a trend towards a linear mode shifts the primary hazard to damaging gusts. The resulting convective line is then expected to continue eastward across AR and MO before reaching the Lower OH Valley early tomorrow morning. Damaging gusts will remain possible as the line moves east overnight. A low-probability tornado threat could also exist within this line as it moves into the greater low-level moisture and stronger low-level flow farther east across central/southern MO and far southern IL. ..Mosier/Dean.. 03/10/2026
Another beautiful day in Bloomington before the snow arrives tonight.
The city has already put down brine on the streets.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 450 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 INZ043>048-051>057-062>065-071-072-012100- Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Vigo-Clay-Owen- Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur- Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Seymour, and North Vernon 450 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...Snow Expected Sunday Night and Monday Morning... A system will move across central Indiana late tonight through Monday morning producing up to 2 inches of dense/wet snow. This will likely lead to isolated slick spots on roadways, and lead to minor impacts to the Monday morning commute. If driving allow for extra stopping distance and extra time to reach your destination.
The good news and the bad news for central Indiana weather for March 2026.
It is such a beautiful day here in Bloomington Indiana. Please get out and enjoy it because we all know what happens during sectionals week.
So the good news is that Spring is almost here. The bad news is that winter will not give up so enjoy today and tomorrow because a snow and / or ice storm looks possible for Monday. After that we will get a lot of rain and thunderstorms for the first ten days of March. And after that, the dreaded Polar Vortex returns for the middle of March. Look at this temperature profile for March 12. Freezing temperatures into Mississippi!
And how about 24 degrees for March 30?
If you live anywhere in between Indianapolis and Bloomington, now is the time to be alert.
Storms are firing up along I-70 and southern part of the state.
It's probably not a good idea to bike to work or bike home from work today.
Weather forecast update for 2/18/26 for central Indiana,.
It's a lovely day today! Enjoy Fake-Spring because it wont last long. Strong storms and tornadoes are possible tomorrow along and south of I-70. The time-frame for this looks like it will be between 3pm and 8pm. Rain showers will continue until midnight. Dewpoints will be key in determining how severe the storms will become. Dewpoints above 60 are dangerous and dewpoints below 60 will save us.
The overall pattern will repeat for the next three weeks. Storms on Thursday and Friday. Cold for the weekends. Warming Monday through Wednesday. Wash, rinse, three-peat.
Winter is not over; not by a long shot!
It will be nice and warm tomorrow with a high of 70 degrees. The wind will pick up tomorrow also.
There are two major concerns right now. One is the strong winds that are whipping up wildfires in Oklahoma so much so that the smoke looks like rain on the radar. Four people are already dead. Red Flag Warnings are posted in several western states.
The next concern is the severe weather outbreak and possible tornadoes on Thursday.
After that, winter returns on Sunday and so do our snow chances but let's focus on getting through the next 60 hours first.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/17/weather/fire-oklahoma-texas-kansas-colorado-climate
https://www.koco.com/article/oklahoma-wildfire-forgan-fire-beaver-county/70396179
A wild week of weather this week.
The snow has melted and now we have fog. It will be 70 degrees on Wednesday. Thunderstorms on Thursday and snow on Sunday.
Just as usual, it looks like we will get snow for Valentine's Day.
Four different models are showing snow for Valentine's Day.
Warming trend starts on Thursday but the Polar Vortex will return.
Light snow on Tuesday.
I am a little bit concerned about an ice storm next week as we slowly warm up. It's pretty look at but no one wants ice.
12 degrees Tuesday night.
9 degrees on Wednesday night.
22 degrees on Thursday night.
40 degree for a high on Friday.
It's going to be warmer through the middle of February however another SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event occured about three to four days ago so that means the Polar Vortex will come back by the last week of February and the first week of March. The CFS is forecasting a high of 52 degrees on February 13.
It's also forecasting a temperature of 10 degrees on March 6.
Here is the what the National Weather Service thinks of Rodent Forecasting:
There will be six more weeks of winter.
That's according to the rodent that saw it's shadow. Happy Groundhog Day 2026!
Who's ready for another big Indiana snowstorm?
By the way, if you haven't heard, Bloomington Indiana received 14.5 inches of snow during the January 25th snowstorm.
There will be a few light snow events for the next two weeks but the next big one coming up could be between February 9 and February 14. There's usually snow on Lover's Day anyway so this is one to watch. See the GFS and EURO below:
Does the upcoming winter storm have you stressed out and worried?
If so then stay away from social media! It will make it worse. What next, an ice storm tornado?
Updates and thoughts on the winter storm setup for central Indiana this weekend.
First off, remember to trust the professionals at the National Weather Service. They just extended the Winter Storm Watch southwards in the state of Georgia while everyone else is talking about northward trends. Kudos to the NWS.
Be very careful and suspicious of snow maps on social media.
The latest GFS model has started shifting the storm south again.
My guess is that the heaviest precipitation is in the far southern Indiana counties and the northern Kentucky counties. All points south of there need to worry about ice and losing power. Go to Lowe's and get a generator if you can afford one. The cold that follows the storm is to dangerous to be without power and heat.
Which track will the 1/24 to 1/26 big snowstorm take?
The upcoming winter weather for this weekend will be one for the history books. That is because of its impact and severity as well as weather forecasting in general. For about the last eight to ten days the weather models have been hinting at a very large snowstorm between 1/24 and 1/26. Eight days ago, one of the weather models gave us a whopping 58 inches of snow. After that, all the models sensed the arctic air intrusion from the polar vortex and began suppressing the snowstorm system to the deep south in states like Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama. In the early morning hours of today, the computer models adjusted again to show the snowstorm system being in the Ohio Valley. There will always be variations in computer modeling and in both the AI models but this one has people fighting each other and being mean. At issue is the fact that the National Weather Service is continuing with its winter storm watches in the deep south. Some social media weather personalities are saying that the NWS is wrong and should not be trusted and the storm will hit the Ohio Valley. One of these solutions could be right or maybe some combination of both could be right. Whatever you do, just check your favorite source for weather updates for this weekend. Stay weather aware and be safe out there. And just as I am ending this post, the National Weather Service has posted Winter Storm Watches for our far southern Indiana counties.
Ps: I am not an expert. I have a hobby and an interest in chaotic systems, mainly in weather, climate, finance and the stock market.
The aurora borealis aka the northern lights will be visible in Indiana tonight.
A G4 geomagnetic storm happened today and that will cause the northern lights to be visible. Check it out. Hopefully the Hoosier will have won the football game by then.
Of holidays and broken records.
Happy MLK Day!
On this day in history back on January 19, 1994, Indianapolis saw a record low temperature of -27 degrees. The windchill was -43 degrees.
Computer weather models will drive you crazy!
So yesterday the GFS had an insane ice storm over Indiana for the last week of January while the EURO had rain and thunderstorms. Today the EURO has an ice storm and the GFS has rain and thunderstorms. The GFS is posted in my previous post. Here is the new EURO model showing ice.
Here is the new GFS model showing rain and thunderstorms.
The last week of January is going to be wild!
All of the computer models are showing some very extreme stuff lately and you'll likely see this on social media. Something is coming but it's still too early to say exactly what it is but please be weather-aware for the last week of January.
Who's excited about a three day ice storm? Anyone???
The National Weather Service in Indianapolis releases new experimental 72 hour winter forecasts.
They are also asking the public for feedback. Check it out:
Also, check out the Climate Prediction Center:
Beware of social media hype on snowstorm predictions.
Yes, there will be a snowstorm somewhere in the Ohio Valley between 1/23 and 1/28 but no one has any details this far in advance. So be very careful and distrustful of what you see on social media. Here are two such examples:
This would be Stephen King thriller novel if it happened.
Cenrtal Indiana is about to head into the heart of winter.
Winter will kick in starting on Thursday, January 15th and it might not let up until the second week of February or near Valentine's Day. Of special interest is the last week of January. All the ingredients are there for a major winter storm to develop somewhere in the Ohio Valley. Both the GFS and EURO are in agreement that something is brewing between January 23 and January 28. That is the timeframe to watch. Get your ice scrapers and snow shovels ready and Bring On The Snow! BOTS!
The Polar Vortex will visit Indiana during the last week of January into February.
Check out this long range model 2M AGL temperature map from the CFS for February 3rd.
My winter weather prediction for central Indiana for the rest of January and into February of 2026.
It looks like the Polar Vortex will return after January 15th. When it arrives, it will make it as far south as Indianapolis and then it will work its way farther south as each clipper system dives down from Canada. The pattern evolving has three different storm tracks. I drew an ugly picture for you all. The two blue lines represent cold air intrusions from Canada from the PV. The first (top) blue line puts Bloomington in the warm sector but not by much. The second blue line (bottom) puts Bloomington in the cold sector. The red line represents the southern branch of the jet stream.
One of these could be the dominant feature or, two of them could be the dominant feature. If the second blue line and the red line phase together early enough and strengthen early-on, that could give us a Big Mama snowstorm. But that's a big “if”. Right now, I don't see any chances for big snows until after January 21st. If you are not from central Indiana, we typically get out big snows from about January 18th to February 14th. That is the sweet spot for big snows. Now, that's not to say that it can't happen before that period or after that period but that is the norm for central Indiana.
Okay, so here is an example of how the Polar Vortex will likely set up:
Another thing that I've noticed is that the first week of February is trending colder; much colder than normal. Check out the period between February 6 through February 9. How about that -22 degrees at 7:00AM on February 6?
There's not much snow in the 10 day forecast but I think we'll see snow during the last week of January. For now though, expect that infamous "Snow Hole" over Indiana. The first below is the GFS model and the second one is the Euro model.
Both the GFS and the Euro have AI Models and here are their predictions respectively. Same sharp cut-offs.
Lastly, the CFS is the longest range model that I know of and it is not to be trusted this far out but here is a map of total snowfall accumulation between now and February 9th.
That's a whopping 16 inches of snow in the picture above.
So here are my predictions:
Off and on warm & cold with small snow shower chances and rain now through January 15th.
The Polar Vortex comes to visit after January 15th and sets up near Indianapolis.
The Polar Vortex digs farther south by January 20th.
Expect a snowstorm somewhere in the Ohio Valley and the northeast during the last week of January.
Expect a very cold opening to February.
#BOTS!
(Bring On The Snow!)
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