BOTS Fans!

Savor the moment because it will be near 60 degrees from Sunday through Tuesday.

Do you know what today is?

The 42nd anniversary of the Great Blizzard of 1978. It didn't get much play in the news media today so I thought I would mention it here. Maybe we'll get a blizzard in February. If not, you can always get one at Dairy Queen.

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/history/retroindy/2016/01/25/retroindy-blizzard-1978/79293570/

https://www.dairyqueen.com/us-en/Menu/Treats/?localechange=1&

Dear #BOTS fans:

If February does not pan out, we are out of luck. Check out this info graphic from the NWS:

We have not had a Blizzard Warning in 1,429 days. That is terrible! Let's hope that February will make up for this deficit.

Here are the long term projections from the NWS:

.LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...

Issued at 319 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

Brief upper ridging moving through the area will bring dry
conditions for Monday night through Tuesday. Between Tuesday night
and Wednesday and upper wave will dig through the area from the
northwest, but there is little surface reflection of this feature
and the air should be relatively dry. Given this, the NBM is
showing only slight chances for precipitation Wednesday through
Wednesday night and made no adjustments from there, with rain the
main ptype Wednesday and a mix Wednesday night. More upper ridging
could slide through late Wednesday night into Friday morning, but
there is more variability in model solutions with this feature and
the subsequent approaching system. For temperatures, generally
looking at upper 30s to lower 40s for highs and upper 20s to lower
30s for lows. Confidence in dry weather is high through Tuesday
but drops to low after that, and confidence in temperatures is
moderate throughout.

Bad news for #BOTS fans.

While it will be much colder in the next seven days, the main precipitation type continues to look like rain events for our area. Maybe February will be better. We'll see.

Here's the latest discussion from the NWS:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
917 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM and AVIATION Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

High pressure overhead will steadily move east of the region, as a
strengthening area of low pressure lifts northeast from the
Southern Plains reaching Southern Wisconsin saturday morning. This
low pressure system will then quickly lift northeast with a
frontal boundary pushing east across Central Indiana, allowing
another surface ridge of high pressure to approach the Western
Ohio River Valley late in the weekend with much cooler
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 912 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

Forecast is evolving as expected. Current thoughts remain that
precipitation will begin late this afternoon as mix of rain and
snow with brief periods of freezing rain tonight before all rain
by late tonight and tomorrow. No changes made to snow and ice
accumulations. Previous discussion follows...


Early this morning a steady feed of dry northeast flow has kept
clouds out of the area, but temperatures have radiated into the
upper teens to lower 20s with dewpoints several degrees lower due
to the drying in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Given the
expected progressive flow, the anticipation is that the departing
surface ridge will loosens it`s influence on Central Indiana, and
likely allow steady moistening in the lower levels late this
afternoon/evening ahead of the next system. That being said, there
is some indications that the further downstream ridge may be
slightly delayed from pushing east, and thus allow some subsidence
to linger into the evening and perhaps delay the onset of precip
by a few hours. This could be key in lowering snowfall totals,
which presently is around an inch for the northern counties. Any
delay in precip may also impact the potential for freezing rain to
occur as well.

Forecast soundings continue to indicate a warm layer aloft lifting
overhead after 6pm this evening, setting the stage for a slow but
steady transition from the moist dendrites towards a full melt of
falling dendrites towards freezing rain due to a sub-freezing
surface. Guidance has backed off marginally with ice accums, with
less than one tenth for the overnight hours. Have adjusted the
current headline to include two row of counties further south, but
expect the timing to be a short period and by 9z Sat any precip
that will be falling will likely be just rain. Further north
soundings still support some sub-freezing conditions, but expect
this to be transitioning to all rain by daybreak Sat and will
maintain the ending of the headlines at 12Z sat further north.

Temperatures will be slowly rising overnight, so the low temps
will occur prior to midnight in the upper 20s to around 30 range,
pushing into the lower to middle 30s by 9-12z Sat.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Sunday night/...
Issued at 320 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

Warm/Moist conveyor will be ushering in a mild slug of air Sat
with temps quickly pushing into the 40s to perhaps lower 50s in
the southern forecast area. Otherwise the main concern will be on
the QPF totals given the remaining saturated soils across Central
Indiana. Expect steady rain to arrive shortly after daybreak and
linger through late morning, coupled with moderate forcing, and
precip totals could easily be between .5 to .75 inches before
noon. A dry wedge is progged to quickly lift northeast as the
mid-level trough axis arrives between 15-18Z Sat, which should
bring a brief end to the precip. But with cold air advection then
kicking in and wrap-around moisture bringing precip chances
quickly back to the region by early afternoon and transitioning
any precip to all snow. Given the northwest flow and cold air
advection behind the frontal passage, the depth of the moisture is
not substantial. Thus not anticipating much in the way of
accumulations on the back end of the shortwave Sat afternoon. But
temperatures will be falling through the afternoon into the 30s.

Quick push towards more typical winter like pattern for Sat ngt
into Sun, with a potent thermal trough arriving and allowing temps
Sat ngt to radiate into the single digits to lower teens.
Northwest cold air advection will persist, but expected to be dry
given strong subsidence from a surface ridge displaced to the
northwest of the region. Broad mid-level trough will then arrive
over the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley regions, holding Sun high
temps in the teens to lower 20s. There is some indications of a
weak clipper like system traversing the region later in the day
Sun/early Mon, but this looks to remain further north.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...

Issued at 358 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

For the majority of the extended period, conditions will be quiet
as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes region. A shortwave or
two embedded within an elongated trough to the north may progress
towards Indiana in the expected northwest flow Monday and Tuesday.
However, a lack of moisture will limit the possibility of
precipitation. For now, no precipitation has been included in Days 4
through 6, but future updates may include a slight chance. High
pressure and consistent northerly flow should allow for temperatures
to remain below normal Monday and Tuesday. Warmer temperatures are
expected to return Wednesday through the extended as high pressure
moves over the east coast, and southwesterly flow dominates the
region.

The next opportunity for precipitation will be Friday. A significant
storm system is expected to develop downstream of a amplified upper-
level trough late next week. Models are rather inconsistent with
the timing and location of this storm system. For now, warmer
temperatures looks likely for Friday, with a chance of perception
from the aforementioned system.

&&

Winter to try to and make come-back on the 16th or the 21st.

I'm betting on the 21st but it wont last very long.

Warm and rainy this week.

Well, I guess I shouldn't say warm. It will be warmer than average for January though. This current weather pattern we are in is a perfect scenario for an ice storm of the century at some point. Here is what the NWS has to say:

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday Night/...

Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

Wet. Moist. Soaking. Did I say Moist?

Moist and wet weather is expected to start of this period as the
ECMWF suggests a very active weather pattern starting on Friday.
Aloft...a deep trough of low pressure is expected to be digging
through the American southwest...resulting in a SW flow of warm
and moist air that will flow into the Ohio Valley. Gulf Moisture
will be available on Friday as the departing surface high
pressure provided strong southerly flow. The ECMWF suggests a
frontal boundary setting up on Friday across Michigan and
Illinois...putting Central Indiana in the warm (and moist) sector.
Several short waves are then suggested to push through the Ohio
valley on Friday through Saturday...providing forcing with the
moist air mass. Forecast soundings shows pwats over 1 inch...very
high for this time of year. Thus we have trended toward
categorical pops on Friday through Saturday as rain looks like a
certainty. Flooding may result and we will continue highlighting
this via ESF for now. With FROPA on Saturday will look for steady
or slowly falling temps through the day...with highs occurring
early.

The cold front and surface low pressure system is expected to
depart on Saturday Night...allowing some dry air to arrive on NW
flow. This should result in some dry weather for Sunday. Another
warn front and warm and moist southerly flow is expected to
return on Monday into Monday Night ahead of yet another short wave
aloft. Thus will allow pops to return to the forecast then.