https://www.rd.com/article/twister-sequel/
The National Weather Service just issued it winter weather outlook for 2022-23.
The 30 second preview:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1583116174203944961
The full report:
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina
A slight warming trend before chaos next week
Temperatures will gradually warm up. Expect a high temperature of 77 on Sunday. That will feel great. Next week brings total chaos. Just about anything and everything is on the table. Here are the players on the field: A cold front moving in, a storm in the plains and tropical storm coming in off the coast. Some computer models are hinting at the idea that they all want to meet up somewhere in the Midwest.
#BOTS fans!
There's a tiny chance to see snow flurries tomorrow.
Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 * Widespread freeze conditions nearly certain multiple mornings early-mid week, particularly Tuesday Night which would officially end growing season Model guidance remains consistent on the overall pattern for the week with a very large and anomalously deep closed low roughly over the Great Lakes early in the week before it steadily pulls north/northeastward toward next weekend. Models have been trending towards slightly better chances for precipitation tonight which could continue into Tuesday over the far north counties as the fetch from the backside of the low pulls down lake effect moisture into the area. Given the below freezing temperatures in the forecast for early Tuesday morning, the long term could start out with some light snow or a rain/snow mix. The ground should still be warm enough that there wouldn`t be more than light accumulations on grass from overnight. The long term will start out much colder than normal behind the passage of a cold front with highs for the first few days staying in the 40s to near 50 and overnight lows near to below freezing. Tuesday night will see the best chance for widespread freezing temperatures with a good chance of a hard freeze that night. This should allow for the end of the growing season if the area does not see that tonight. Thus, will not be issuing any further frost/freeze headlines at this time. For the latter half of the work week and into the weekend, the upper low will slowly exit to the NE allowing for broad ridging to move in. At the surface, a return to SW flow will also lead to a warming trend for the end of the week. By the weekend temperatures are expected to reach above normal with highs getting into the lower 70s. Models are then showing, with great variability, another trough approaching the area at the tail end of the period. This could bring a better chance of much needed precipitation to central Indiana but given the uncertainties, confidence is low for now.
It's going to be cold next week
Expect freeze warnings for Monday and Tuesday. Northern Indiana will get some snow on Tuesday.
#BOTS!
#BOTS!
Heads-up if you use weather apps on your phone or tablet. The Thursday night temperature forecast is likely too warm. We have a chance to hit the freezing mark Thursday night (10/13), Sunday night (10/16) and Monday night (10/17).
Believe it or not, snow is showing up the long range CFS model. Of course this is not to be trusted this far out but it is nice to see. #BOTS fans!
The image above if for November 11, 2022. Out first snow flurries in this area usually occur around November 15th so this isn't an extreme idea. We've already had frost in early October so it's possible.
Frost and freeze warnings are already in place for this weekend.
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 300 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .Short Term...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 ...FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT... * Frost Likely and isolated Freezing conditions Tonight * Sunny and pleasant Saturday Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong and cold high pressure over the Dakotas, building south. This large high was extending its influence well east across the Great lakes and into the Ohio Valley. Cool north winds were in place across Indiana. GOES16 shows lake clouds steaming off of Lake Michigan, but most of these clouds were failing to reach Central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor imagery showed a broad trough across the eastern 2/3rds of the United States...with some high clouds passing across Illinois and Indiana within the flow. Dew points across much of Central Indiana have fallen to the middle 30s, with lower 30s found upstream. Tonight... Models show prominent NW flow in place aloft overnight with negligible forcing dynamics in place. Surface high pressure over the northern plains states is expected to sag southeast and a ridge axis is shown to extend east across Central Indiana. Time heights and forecast soundings overnight continue to indicate a dry column with subsidence. As heating is lost this evening and as the ridge axis builds, winds will subside leading to ideal radiational cooling conditions with clear skies and light to calm winds. Surface dew points across the area are still above 32 for the most part but additional cold air advection is expected overnight. Currently the 25 percentile NBM temps suggest lows near 32, meaning there are many more scenarios where lows do not fall below 32. Given our current dew points, frost appears to be a slam dunk, but freezing temps will more likely be the exception rather than the rule. Thus will trend overnight lows to mainly the middle 30s, probably with a frost advisory in play rather than a Freeze warning. Saturday and Saturday night... Northwest flow is expected to persist aloft on Saturday and Saturday night, again with negligible forcing dynamics in place. Forecast soundings and Time heights again show a dry column with unreachable convective temperatures on Saturday with a mid level inversion in place aloft. Meanwhile at the surface, the strong high pressure system is expected to sink southward and become more elongated stretching from Kansas toward eastern TN. This will set up a westerly flow across Indiana and also prevent any lake cloud from arriving in our forecast area. Thus we will expect a mostly sunny Saturday and a mostly clear Saturday night under influence of the surface high. Models suggest the beginning of warm air advection on Saturday and Saturday night as the core of cold air with this past system drifts east of Indiana. 850mb temps are shown to rise from below 0C to near 2C by 12Z Sunday. Thus will still stick close to highs in upper 50s and mid to upper 30s on Saturday Night. Again, frost looks to be in play on Saturday Night. && .Long Term...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 * Dry conditions and warming trend through mid next week * Next chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday * Cool and dry late week Sunday through Monday Warmer weather returns Sunday as surface high pressure moves east and southwest flow returns. Aloft, guidance suggests troughing remains through Monday few upper level impulses tracking across northern IN Sunday through Monday morning. Precipitation is not expected with these features as moisture return lags due to dry air across much of the region. However, mid-high level clouds will increase late Sunday which could limit overnight lows. Breezy conditions are expected during the day with forecast soundings showing a well-mixed boundary layer with the potential for 20-25mph wind gusts. Monday through Late Next Week... Mid-high clouds should clear out Monday as the aforementioned upper level feature departs. Upper ridging will then build in and help to continue the warming trend as heights increase aloft. In addition, an approaching cold front midweek will lead to increasing southwest flow. Both GFS and EC ensembles show above average 850mb temperature anomalies first half of the week, supporting highs in the mid to upper 70s. Quiet weather is expected through Tuesday with synoptic subsidence from ridging aloft and a dominant surface high across the Mid-atlantic. Rain chances increase Wednesday through early Thursday as the previously mentioned cold front moves through. Not the greatest confidence in widespread significant precipitation yet given the continued dry pattern and surface ridging possibly limiting moisture advection. Although, recent ensemble guidance shows a slightly stronger 850mb jet with deeper moisture across the area. With the jet stream diving so far to the south, there may be enough lift and upper level support along the front for light precipitation to develop, but this will be something to watch over the coming days. Keeping chance wording for PoP during this timeframe with the best chance for rain Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front late week. The coldest air is not expected to arrive until Friday as the trough axis moves east.
The Dick Frymire winter forecast!
The people of the great state of Kentucky have a local legend that has been predicting the winter weather for years. Dick Frymire passed away in 2013 but his family still continues the tradition.
Here is the forecast for the upcoming winter:
Here is the National Weather Service outlook for December 2022 - February 2023:
Updates and news you can use.
Everyone in Bloomington will see frost Friday night and Saturday night since the temperature will 34 degrees both nights.
October is our second severe weather season. It is possible to see severe weather and tornadoes because of the clash of cold and warm air masses just like in the spring.
Our first freeze is possible between October 14 and October 19.
#BOTS! Flurries on October 19th?
Here's what the NWS thinks:
Forecast Update... Issued at 641 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Minor changes to the forecast this morning. Refined the mention of patchy fog across our northeastern counties based upon recent observations and satellite trends. Nudged temperatures north of I-70 down a degree or two, again based upon recent observational trends. High pressure is currently overhead, and winds have generally decreased to less than 5kts during the course of the night. A few locations have even gone calm for multiple hours, and these have typically been the cooler spots with frost and fog. Given the expectation of clear skies with light winds through morning, the continued development of patchy frost and fog is anticipated until shortly after sunrise. && .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Through Sunrise High pressure is currently building into the region, and light northeasterly winds are diminishing. Some weak cold air advection throughout the day yesterday has allowed for cooler conditions compared to the prior overnight period. Many rural stations are reporting temperatures in the middle 30s as of 06Z. Will carry the mention of frost for much of the CWA and maintain the Special Weather Statement. Urban areas With excellent radiational cooling potential, some patchy ground fog is possible by morning. Terra Haute recently had a brief period of visibility under 2 miles. Low-level moisture is quite limited, however, and widespread fog is not expected. The main forecast challenge through morning will be the frost coverage. Today Any frost or ground fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise once temperatures begin to rise. Efficient boundary layer mixing may once again occur this afternoon, and surface dew points may drop to under 32F. Will keep dew points under NBM guidance this afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be seasonable, around 70, and winds will remain very light. A few high clouds may be noticeable to our east early, but these should diminish throughout the day. Tonight The center of the surface high will be directly overhead by tonight. Some air mass modification and the cessation of weak cold air advection will lead to slightly warmer overnight lows compared to this morning. While a few instances of frost may occur, most locations are not expected to be cold enough to support frost. Some patchy ground fog is possible, but once again not expected to be widespread. Most likely places for patchy fog would be low points in the local terrain and farmland with enhanced surface moisture from evapotranspiration. && .Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 * Frost likely with potential freezing temperatures this weekend * Very low chance for rain around Thursday Wednesday... Upper ridging and surface high pressure will continue the dry conditions. Sunshine and dry air will allow temperatures to peak above normal in the lower to middle 70s. Afternoon humidity will be low once again, but with high pressure nearby, winds will be light. This will help mitigate potential fire concerns. Thursday into Friday... A weak upper wave will move through on Thursday, with an accompanying weak surface trough. Moisture will be limited with the Gulf cut off. This means little chance of rain, and the models continue to hint at little if any QPF. Will keep some slight chance PoPs across the northern forecast area Thursday afternoon. Above normal temperatures will continue with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Thursday night, a cold front with significantly colder air behind it will move through. However, best forcing will be north of the area closer to an upper low across southern Canada. The upper jet will be over the area, putting the left exit region north of central Indiana. This will limit forcing here as well. Moisture will continue to be limited as well. Thus, odds of any measurable rain are low. Will continue a dry forecast Thursday night. As colder air flows in on Friday, some lake enhanced showers may move into northern Indiana. These should remain north of central Indiana, so went dry on Friday as well. Thanks to strong cold advection, highs on Friday will only be in the 50s to around 60. Saturday and Sunday... Surface high pressure will move through during the weekend, keeping the area dry and cool. Highs on Saturday will be in the 50s, with some southwest flow on the west side of high pressure bringing 60s for highs on Sunday. Clearing skies and weakening winds will allow temperatures to dip into the lower to middle 30s by sunrise Saturday. Frost will become likely many areas, with the potential for below freezing temperatures, especially in favored cold spots. Similar conditions will exit early Sunday morning, but a hint of a southwest wind should keep temperatures above freezing. Frost will be possible again though. Columbus Day... Upper flow will become zonal or perhaps southwesterly depending on how an upper low develops across the northern USA. This will allow for warmer temperatures. At the moment, forcing from the approaching system looks to remain far enough west to go with a dry forecast.
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