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Heat Alert! A taste of summer is coming next week. 90+ degrees!
Well, let's be honest here. We have had a FABULOUS month this May. It was mostly clear and sunny (some rain but not a lot) with high temperatures in 70's and lows in the 50's at night. It was just great! But now reality is about to set in next week so enjoy this last week of May.
The good news is that the 90+ degree weather looks to be short lived and then temperatures will drop back into the low 80's. In the meantime, expect a mini-heatwave between May 31 and June 4.
Here is how the National Weather Service describes it:
.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Models and ensembles are continuing the trend that the stagnant central CONUS ridge will likely keep an upper low that will develop in the southwest portion of trough, associated with a New England and Canadian Maritimes upper low, far enough southeast to keep showers away through Memorial Day. Previously, the GFS and its ensemble mean had it close enough to spit some afternoon QPF over central Indiana as early as Sunday. The upper ridge will provide dry and seasonable weather through the weekend. The only concern would be a potential for elevated fire danger as the continued dry weather gradually lowers 10 hour fuel moisture levels and northeast surface winds around the Great Lakes high will continue to reinforce MinRH levels to around 25 percent at times during the afternoon hours through at least Saturday. That said, winds will be marginal due to the weak pressure gradients both at the surface and top of the mixing height. For Holiday weekend outdoor activity planning, even in a worst case scenario, believe any shower activity will be brief, isolated, diurnal in nature and not until Monday afternoon at the earliest. Afternoon temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s along with the low humidity levels will make it feel comfortable for humans and pets alike. Isolated diurnal convection would seemingly be more plausible toward the middle of next week, when a broad ridge builds over the area and dew points rise as winds take on a southerly component. Even then, shear will be likely for any kind of organized convection. Being firmly entrenched under the ridge, 90+ degrees look a very real possibility by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Storm clouds from last week.
The rest of this month is going to be calm and beautiful. Highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's. Enjoy!
Cooler weather to persist
I don't see any 80 degree days until the end of May. Enjoy the cooler weather.
________
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 634 AM EDT Mon May 1 2023 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 1 2023 * A cold start to May with temperatures similar to March * Wind gusts to 40 mph today * More rain for much of the area today Early this morning, the stubborn large upper low remained across lower Michigan. Broad cyclonic flow continued at the surface and aloft across central Indiana. Scattered showers were moving through the area. Before 12Z... Scattered showers will diminish from northwest to southeast as the main forcing exits the area, but isolated showers or sprinkles will remain with weak forcing continuing in the cyclonic flow. Today... A few showers will continue through mid morning with weak forcing continuing across mainly the northeast half of the forecast area. However, as a strong upper wave rotates around the upper low, forcing will ramp up late morning north and spread south and east during the afternoon. Best forcing will be confined to the northeast half of the forecast area. Will go likely to categorical PoPs there, with the highest PoPs in the northeast closest to the upper wave. Will have low PoPs to no PoPs across the southwest where forcing is weak. Little or no instability is expected, so will not mention any thunder. Strong winds will remain not too far off the surface, and the pressure gradient will remain relatively tight across the area today. These will produce breezy conditions. As some mixing occurs, wind gusts around 40 mph will develop. Will continue with a Special Weather Statement highlighting this. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures well below normal today. Normal highs for May 1 are in the upper 60s to around 70, but highs today will only be in the low to mid 40s northeast to the mid 50s southwest. For Indy, a high in the upper 40s is normal for March 10. Winds will make it feel even cooler. Tonight... Forcing will diminish through the night as the upper wave moves away and the upper low itself shifts a bit east. Will have some likely PoPs early in the period northeast, with initial PoPs dropping off to dry for the southwest forecast area. PoPs will then diminish from southwest to northeast during the night. Clouds will stick around across the northeast but decrease across the southwest. Cold advection and the partial clearing will lead to lows in the upper 30s to around 40. Stronger wind gusts will diminish with loss of heating tonight, but breezy conditions will persist through much of the night. && .Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 1 2023 The beginning of the long term will still be heavily influenced by an upper level low slowly drifting east across the Great Lakes. An upper level impulse is expected to pivot around the low and help reinforce cloud cover Tuesday. Forcing will be marginal, but sufficient moisture should support sporadic light showers or drizzle late in the day. Windy conditions are expected Tuesday with a tight MSLP gradient in place, but these winds should gradually diminish midweek. By Tuesday night, slight progression of an upper ridge across the central CONUS will allow for a dry air to advect into the region. This should allow skies to clear out, leading to more efficient diurnal cooling and colder temperatures. Northeast portions of the area may not clear out until Wednesday due to the slow progression of the ridge. Diurnal cooling will be limited some, but lows in the mid 30s are still expected for most of the area under strong cold air advection. Frost is not expected as winds should remain around 10-15 mph overnight. The upper low will move into the northeast states Wednesday with surface high pressure building in. Look for mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. A more optimal radiational cooling setup is likely overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning due to relatively light winds and clear skies. This will likely lead to at least patchy frost Thursday morning. The second half of the week should slightly warm as the ridge begins to influence the Great Lakes Region. Temperatures will likely still be near seasonal within NW flow. An upper level disturbance is expected to move across the northern periphery of the ridge late Thursday night into Friday, bringing another chance for rain. Confidence decreases significantly after Friday as it will be dependent on how the disturbance develops. While there is lower confidence, a general warming trend is expected into the weekend with increasing heights aloft.
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