Welp, I'm calling it. Although Spring officially started on March 21st, we sometimes get snow in late March and early April but not this year. If we don't see any snow between now and April 2nd, it's over. Temperature will gradually get warmer so it's time to retire the hashtag 'BOTS' until November.
Geomagnetic storm warning today (in addition to flooding)
:Issued: 2023 Mar 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8 (NOAA Scale
G4).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 24-Mar 26 2023 is 7.67 (NOAA Scale
G4).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 24-Mar 26 2023
Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26
00-03UT 6.67 (G3) 3.67 2.67
03-06UT 7.67 (G4) 4.67 (G1) 3.33
06-09UT 6.67 (G3) 4.33 4.67 (G1)
09-12UT 4.33 4.00 3.67
12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 4.00 3.67
15-18UT 5.67 (G2) 4.00 3.33
18-21UT 2.67 4.33 3.00
21-00UT 3.67 4.33 3.00
Rationale: G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storms occurred early on 24 Mar due
to effects from CME passage. G1-G2 (Minor to Moderate) geomagnetic
storms are likely on 25-26 Mar due to CH HSS influences.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 24-Mar 26 2023
Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 24-Mar 26 2023
Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 24-26 Mar.
A flood watch is in place.
Rain from now through Saturday. And no, winter is not over yet. One more snow storm is possible.
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
333 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023
INZ045>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-230345-
/O.NEW.KIND.FA.A.0002.230324T0000Z-230325T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-
Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-
Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Greensburg, Brazil, Rushville, Carlisle,
Indianapolis, Mooresville, New Castle, Spencer, Jasonville,
Mitchell, Farmersburg, Greenfield, North Vernon, Martinsville,
Loogootee, Bloomfield, Vincennes, Bloomington, Shelbyville,
Danville, Nashville, Greencastle, Columbus, Seymour, Shelburn,
Franklin, Gosport, Bedford, Linton, Terre Haute, Sullivan,
Plainfield, Shoals, Brownsburg, Worthington, Washington, and
Greenwood
333 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Indiana, along and
south of I-70.
* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Saturday morning.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Extensive street
flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible. Be
especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches between Thursday
evening and Saturday morning can be expected within most of
the watch area. Locally higher amounts are possible in areas
that receive training thunderstorms. Greatest concern for
high rain rates and therefor flooding will be Thursday and
Friday night.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.Snow squalls today!
#BOTS!
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 353 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-132030- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery- Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke- Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan- Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew- Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon 353 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 ...Scattered to Numerous Snow Showers Today into this Evening, Snow Squalls Possible... Scattered to numerous snow showers are expected to develop today. A few of these snow showers may be briefly intense, and a few snow squalls will be possible. Minor spotty accumulations of an inch or less will be possible in some locations, although accumulations will be variable and will likely begin to melt quickly. Accumulations will generally be limited to grassy surfaces, except in locations where briefly intense snowfall rates are able to overwhelm the warmth of paved surfaces. Briefly poor or variable visibilities are likely at times today, and localized slick spots may develop on roadways, bridges, and other surfaces. Use caution if traveling across central Indiana today into this evening.
California is going to experience more extreme weather.
Contact your friends, family and other loved ones to check on them.
__________
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Thu Mar 09 2023 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 09 2023 - 12Z Sat Mar 11 2023 ...Threat of heavy rain, flooding, and heavy high-elevation snow for the West as an Atmospheric River impacts the region... ...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall accumulations will spread from the Northern/Central Plains into the Great Lakes and Appalachians Thursday-Friday... ...Shower and thunderstorm chances with locally heavy rainfall continue for the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday; precipitation chances increase for the East Coast Friday... A persistent storm system lingering off the northwest Pacific coast will better organize Thursday as upper-level energy approaches and moisture tapped deep from the Pacific streams in bringing yet another Atmospheric River event to the West Coast in what has already been an active season. After persistent light to moderate showers at lower/coastal elevations and snow into the mountains, temperatures will warm Thursday raising snow levels significantly and bringing the heavy rain threat up into potions of the higher terrain as well. Moderate Risks (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall are in effect on Thursday and Friday over central coastal California and the central interior valleys, particularly in favorable upslope regions along the terrain of the coastal ranges and the Sierra, where several inches of rain are expected. In addition, rainfall at higher-elevations may contribute to rapid snowmelt, which may further exacerbate the potential for scattered to numerous flooding instances downstream. Warmer temperatures will likely push the threat for flooding over to the east slope of the Sierra in the Great Basin as well. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will also spread over the Pacific Northwest but without the flooding concerns seen further south as the area will not tap into the tropical moisture. Additionally, heavy snowfall will spread across higher mountain elevations in the Cascades, Sierra, and interior ranges of the northern Great Basin Thursday into portions of the northern/central Rockies by Friday. Snow totals over a foot are likely, with locally much higher totals of multiple feet possible, especially for portions of the Sierra. Interior valley locations will likely see a mix of rain and snow, keeping any snow accumulations low. Numerous and widespread wind-related advisories are in effect for northern/central California and portions of the northern/central Great Basin as gusts may reach upwards of 40-50 mph at lower elevations and up to 70 mph at higher elevations. High temperatures Thursday will remain unseasonably cool for most of the West, with widespread 30s and 40s for interior locations and the Pacific Northwest with 50s for northern/central California. Temperatures will warm a bit for some Friday given the incoming Pacific air, especially across the Great Basin, where highs will be into the 40s and 50s. The Desert Southwest and Southern Rockies will remain warmer than the rest of the region, with highs in the 60s and 70s on Thursday reaching into the low 80s for some locations Friday. Further east, an upper level wave pushing across the Plains and into the Midwest will aid the organization of an eastward moving frontal system and continue to spread snow from the Northern/Central Plains into the Great Lakes Thursday and portions of the central/northern Appalachians by Friday. The highest chances for locally heavier snow of 6"+ will be from southern Minnesota and northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin on Thursday, and favorable lake-effect locations off Lake Erie and into higher elevations of the central/northern Appalachians in Pennsylvania into Friday. Snow rates may exceed an 1" per hour at times, leading to difficult travel conditions. The system over the West will eventually move into the Northern Plains Friday, bringing renewed snow chances to portions of Montana and the Dakotas with some locally heavier totals possible near the Canadian border. High temperatures will generally be seasonable across the Midwest, with 30s and 40s for Thursday and Friday. Highs will be a bit chillier further west, with highs only into the 20s for much of the Northern Plains. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger across much of the southern tier of the country as a stagnant quasi-stationary boundary that has brought heavy rain to the region remains for Thursday. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of eastern Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, though any flash flood risk is more marginal compared to previous days. The incoming upper-level shortwave will help to finally push the boundary southward as a cold front late Thursday night into Friday, bringing an end to storm chances for the Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley while chances increase for the Southeast and Florida. Highs will once again be unseasonably warm for many locations across Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday with 70s and 80s in place, and even some low 90s along the Rio Grande. The cold front pushing through will cool things down to more seasonable temperatures Friday, with generally 60s for highs outside of the immediate Gulf Coast and far South Texas. Precipitation chances will also increase for the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as the frontal system approaches on Friday. Light to moderate rain showers can be expected from Virginia south, while some snow may mix in to the north along the I-95 urban corridor Friday night, though very little to no accumulations are currently expected. High temperatures will generally be in the 30s and 40s for New England, while temperatures will cool from the 50s to low 60s for the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Thursday into the 40s and low 50s Friday. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
Winter is back! #BOTS!
If you're looking for the return of springlike weather you'll have to wait until after March 21st. In the meantime, #BOTS fans have some things to be excited about. Believe it or not, there are multiple chances for snow in the next ten days.
Flood Warning!
Flood Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1115 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers and locations in Indiana...Illinois... East Fork White River at Seymour. Driftwood River near Edinburgh. Muscatatuck River at Vernon. White River from Centerton southward. Tippecanoe River near Delphi. Wabash River at Vincennes and Mount Carmel. Eel River at Bowling Green. ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Indiana... Illinois... White River below Eagle Valley Power Plant, Spencer, and Ravenswood. Wildcat Creek near Lafayette. Wabash River at Clinton, Terre Haute, Montezuma, Covington, Riverton, Hutsonville Legacy Power Plant Site, and Lafayette. .Rainfall amounts of one and a half to two and a half inches with locally higher amounts throughout the day will bring additional lowland flooding with higher crests along the Wabash and its tributaries, as well as bring lowland flooding to much of the White and East Fork White Rivers and their tributaries as well. Locally higher amounts in a particular basin could introduce some moderate flooding. Those with interests along area rivers should maintain a close watch on the forecast over the next 24 hours. The crest on the Wabash is forecast to reach Lafayette on Sunday morning with flooding on the Wabash continuing through next week. Most locations on the upper White are forecast to crest Saturday evening through Sunday morning, with locations on the lower White cresting Sunday afternoon through early next week. Flooding on lower portions of the White is forecast to last through next week. On the East Fork White the crest could stay from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars through flooded areas. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/ind. This statement will be updated within the next 12 to 24 hours.
Heavy rain and wind tomorrow. Winter returns next week!
There's a 100% chance of rain tomorrow. 2 to 3 inches of rain are possible so be alert. If see a road completely cover in water... "Don't drown, turn around!"
Winter returns on March 8th. February and March have swapped places so let's pretend like this is the month of February and last month was March.
Here's what the National Weather Service has to say:
Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 307 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 ...Heavy rain becoming more likely late tonight through Friday... Key Messages: - Flood watch issued for all of Central Indiana - Rain is expected to overspread the region late this evening, with pockets of moderate to at times heavy rainfall overnight through much of Friday. Some embedded thunderstorms may accompany the steady rain, with the main focus for thunder being along and south of a Terre Haute to Indy to Muncie line. - There is also a potential for hazardous wind conditions Friday, but there are some caveats that could hold the higher gusts aloft and not reach the surface. Details will be highlighted below in the discussion for Friday. This morning through Today... Broad anti-cyclonic surface ridging is drifting east across the Great Lakes region. This has allowed the cirrus shield to persist across the Southern Missouri Valley, stretching northeast over Central Indiana. Surface conditions remain benign, with a light northerly flow, and temps generally have radiated into the mid 40s. Expect for much of the day minimal changes to occur in the weather conditions, with the exception being wind direction. The pressure gradient will become oriented from the northeast to southwest, allowing winds to shift northeasterly but the lack of a robust gradient should allow speeds to generally be sub 10kt. Cirrus shield will likely persist through the afternoon hours. Given some solar shielding of the sun, and lack of a thermal ridge, temps will likely not see the diurnal surge from Wed and remain contained within the upper 40s to middle 50s. Tonight... Focus turns towards the developing shortwave, progged to arrive Friday across the region. Prior to the arrival the stage will be set with several ensemble members still pointing at lengthening vectors of the integrated water vapor transport, pointing from the the Central GOMEX northward towards the Ohio Valley. Current ensembles indicate the potency to be 3 to 4 sigma in strength, which coupled with the robust meridional flow in the 850-700mb layer would suggest that the potential for moderate/steady rain to at times heavy pockets appears favorable for much of Central Indiana. This has resulted in the need for a flood watch for the entire forecast area. Given the antecedent conditions of moist soils already in place, and the high confidence of rainfall in excess of 2 inches, this headline seemed prudent given the setup and expected conditions. Flood watch will continue until 6z Sat. Current timing has the shortwave beginning a northerly track from the Arklatex region around 6z Fri. Mid-lvl 500mb vort max is aligned with the surface features, and guidance continues to lift this feature north. Downstream the departing surface ridge will begin to slow, which should allow for further amplification to this synoptic system. This may briefly delay full saturation of the profile, but it appears to be only brief with strong isentropic ascent to parcels quickly moistening by 12Z Fri. Friday...There does appear to be some hints at a very slight negative tilt to the upper level features and the surface, which could shift the axis of higher rainfall values a touch northwest and bring a slight erosion to the moist layer into the southwest forecast area late Fri afternoon. Confidence remains high for heavy rainfall through much of the day Fri, but equally a concern for hazardous winds. Guidance has also continued to suggest some embedded thunderstorms with this setup Fri, but the emphasis on any organized severe elements appears to be more focused further south across Kentucky/Tennessee. But with mentioned negative tilt to the upper level support and this could also shift the convective concerns further north as well. Some caveats to seeing the higher winds materialize focus on the strong isentropic ascent of warm parcels creating a warm layer aloft. This could inhibit the potential for better mixing to the surface and resulting in winds remaining in the 30-35mph gust range for the area. Further south along the Ohio River appear to be more favorable where better mixing could easily occur and transport the 40 to 45 kt gusts to the surface. Friday night...Shortwave will continue to lift north late Fri evening, and bring a quick end to the precip shield as the deeper moisture peels quickly to the northeast and a dry layer arrives. A frontal boundary will then pass the region and bring a return to more seasonal air. && .Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 307 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023 Weather impacts in the long term should be minimal. One minor precipitation event is expected late Monday into early Wednesday. Temperatures for most of the long term period will be above normal until a cooler pattern evolves the latter half of next week. Meteorological details and uncertainties are discussed below. Saturday: Cyclonic low level flow, residual low level moisture and ascent from relatively weak upstream shortwave trough would keep stratus through about midday or early afternoon. Neither of the shortwave troughs will be effective at dislodging higher latitude cold air, so the cool-down will be modest. Still about 10 degrees above climo. Sunday: The synoptic-scale pattern amplifies Sunday enough for some increase in temperatures, but the warm plume aloft holds southwest before the end of the diurnal mixing cycle so this will limit the warm-up somewhat. Monday: We`re a little more favorably positioned relative to deep ridging for a warm plume to advect over, and so we`re slightly higher with temperatures compared to a blended process to account for model deficiencies with mixing/PBL details (as we saw yesterday with temperatures near the 90th percentile of the ensemble distribution). Pacific moisture connection within westerlies, augmented by ascent from the approaching shortwave trough will ensure increasing cirrus, but deep moisture is mainly confined closer to the Ohio River, and deflected eastward as ascent moves through so only low probability of measurable precipitation late Monday and Monday night. Tuesday through Thursday: Post-frontal environment should be modestly cooler Tuesday, but continued veering of low level flow with broadening eastern trough should cause progressively cooler temperatures into the latter half of next week. Generally a dry period with deeper moisture relegated south, and only modest perturbations transient within the westerlies. Day 8-14: A colder pattern than recent days, but medium-range ensemble guidance is chaotic with position of synoptic features and therefore (1) magnitude of cold, and (2) potential for precipitation events.
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