A warmer than expected January?

Two weeks ago there were indications that the weather pattern would flip to a drastically colder one but that hasn't happened yet. In fact the first week of December looks to be fairly average. We might get to 50 degrees on Monday and cool down before getting to the mid to upper 40's for next weekend.
Here's the NWS forecast discussion:

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 222 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

Fairly uneventful long term period of the forecast expected as
large surface high pressure axis looks to shut down precipitation
chances across the area. An upper level wave may move through the
area Wednesday night into Thursday, but a very dry column will
preclude any precipitation chances with this feature.

Temperatures through the period will be relatively seasonable,
perhaps climbing a bit above normal late in the period as upper
level flow becomes more zonal/weakly anticyclonic over the region.

High uncertainty about next week.

I know it sound likes I'm repeating myself but at this distance no one knows what's going to happen next week.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 254 PM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

Models are having differences in the long term with timing and
strength of various waves in the quasi-zonal flow aloft. Thus,
timing and coverage of any precipitation is low confidence. That
said, with moisture lacking, it looks like a good chance that most
areas will be dry through Christmas Day. Then, the last in a series
of waves has the potential to tap more moisture by midweek. Thus,
the blend chance PoPs look reasonable by Christmas night. BUFKIT
suggests a mix of snow and rain.

Low level thermals suggest seasonable to slightly above normal
temperatures for the entire extended. This looks reasonable per the
blend.

NOAA SciJinks page on weather reliability.

This is an excellent page on understanding forecast reliability.

In short, this graphic sums it up.


Old lessons learned again.

Forecasting two weeks out is probably not a good idea. Two weeks ago most people thought the cold air would return by Christmas Day. Remember this?


Now the current data says this:


So how long will the warmth continue? I don't know, but it will continue for the rest of this week; that is for sure. What do I mean by warm? I mean warmer than average where the average for this time of year is 39 / 23 (Hi temp / Low temp). That is verified by the NWS forecast for this week.



Beyond that, the trend looks average to slightly warmer than normal. Again, this data is too far into the future to be reliable so it is not trustworthy. 







Radar mystery hasn't been solved yet.

Radar mystery hasn't been solved yet.

"Citing an unnamed pilot, he said Evansville air traffic control claimed a military C-130 released a stream of chaff – radar-jamming material sometimes used during training exercises – a few miles northwest of Evansville."

Yeah right!

What the heck is going on in Evansville Indiana? UFO's?

Radar returns are showing a small intense storm but there are no storm reports coming in from that area. There are no storms forecast for that area so what could it be? I say UFO's!





What are Chaff Events?

Chaff is composed of small, aluminum-coated, silica core strands and is known for its highly reflective properties in the microwave part of the electromagnetic spectrum [United States Air Force (USAF) 1997].
______________

Metallic aluminum objects in the atmosphere? Yep! UFO's! What accounts for moving this fast?





Update for 12/7/2018

High temperatures in the mid to upper 30's and lows in the 20's until next Tuesday and all days will be sunny and dry. It going to be very boring in the weather department for a few days. I don't anything interesting until a week from today which is on Friday December 14th.

Huge ice crystals this morning!

There were some huge ice crystals on top of my this morning. They were the largest I've ever seen. This is amazing.













Rain /snow mix right now in Bloomington

Do heed warnings for slick spots. The temperature is 36 degrees right now but it will fall to 32 by 7:30pm and 19 degrees overnight and that means re-freezing on roads. From the NWS:

Special Weather Statement...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
236 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

...Slick Spots Possible on Roads and Overpasses...

Light snow continues across much of central Indiana and will move
through the area through the afternoon rush hour and into this
evening. The snow could produce some slick spots on roads and
overpasses.

Motorists are encouraged to use caution on area roads into this
evening.


Weekend snow is still uncertain at this point.

Once the storm comes on shore and we get it sampled then tomorrow's data should be spot on. The NWS in Louisville has posted this for now.


The seesaw pattern continues

Warm next week and then cold the following.




The mid December pattern is very interesting.

These guys again!



It looks like about once a year and usually during the winter that they take a decent amount of flak  on twitter for posting where a snowstorm might occur and then when it doesn't happen people get mad. That storm has been trending father south with each new run. At one point the storm disappeared. We won't know anything for certain until late Wednesday or early Thursday morning.


Storms are firing up in central Illinois

A tornado watch in effect for Illinois.

The sun is shining in Bloomington.

@2:30pm. This is bad news. Sunlight in between systems provides more fuel for stronger storms later this evening. Stay tuned.

Watch for a line of storms this evening.

Be alert between the hours of 2:00pm and 8:00pm. A line of storms will try to pop up in Illinois and push into Indiana. There are indications that it might not make it here but it's worth noting. There will also be some small pop up showers here in Indiana as well.

Early morning thoughts.

There's some ice on the grass and sidewalks in Bloomington but streets seem fine. There's also ice on cars but it is fairly easy to clean off.




If you're an old guy like me, you might want to get some ice cleats this year. These help prevent falls and injuries.



One good thing about ice and snow is that it put these guys out of business. (hopefully)


The wild weather will continue

There's a chance for some light ice /freezing rain between 5:00am and 9:00am Thursday morning. You'll  want to give yourself an extra 30 minutes before leaving for work.


There will be rain Friday and maybe even a thunderstorm Saturday with a high of 63 degrees. Check out how impressive this storm is. At certain points it moves backwards twice.


After this, it's back to cold rain and snow for next week. See the video below for an explanation.


Wild Weather in Bloomington.

It wasn't supposed to snow this morning and yet it's been snowing non-stop since 7:00am. It's going to warm up later this week but know one seems know what the high temperature will be this coming Saturday. There's a range of 53 to 63 degrees.

What a difference 24 hours can make.

Yesterday at 1:53pn it was sunny and 62 degrees and now at 11:08am it's 32 degrees and snowing. Good ol Indiana weather.

The Seesaw effect.

High temperatures will warm into the lower 50's by this weekend. Next week cold air will return with a chance for snow. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. That will be the seesaw-like pattern for the next few weeks and throughout the month of December. See if you can spot the examples of the "Seesaw Effect" below.



 Look at that pink stuff! (Above)



 Up and down.


Up and down again.


Rain from coast to coast north to south

Freezing temperatures into southern Alabama.


Our old friend from early October is trying to make a comeback.

Remember the southeast ridge that kept pumping in the heat during the first 10 days of October? Take a look at this temperature forecast for Sunday, November 25th.




Ice Storm Warning is in place in Bloomington until 12:00pm noon.

I just drove into town and the roads are in excellent condition because the road temperatures are between 36 and 38. There's lots of ice on trees, cars, power-lines and other objects.





Ice will change to all snow by 1:00pm today but I wouldn't expect too much more snow. The heaviest of the precipitation is off to our east. We are still in the center of the storm but the back side of storm does not have as much moisture as the front side. Classic rotated comma shape.


Also, there's another chance of ice Sunday evening into Sunday night. High temperatures will remain in the low 40's through Tuesday and them we begin a brief warming trend towards Thanksgiving.

#IDTP

I just made that up for "I Decline to Ponder / Pontificate". That's how I feel about the current system to our south. The storm system is so complex that forecasts range from all rain to nearly six inches of snow and everything in between with a mix of rain, sleet, snow and ice.

Why is it so complex to figure out? Because it is a cut-off low pressure system that is cut off from the jet stream or an attached cold front, it can meander in just about any direction it wants to. Yeah, it sounds like it has a mind of its own. Usually the upper level jet stream or, a warm front (mainly in summer) or, a cold front are the main drivers that push storms from west to east and south to north. That will eventually happen in this case but not before it wobbles around. As is wobbles around, it changes the temperature and precipitation on the east and west side of the wobble. Okay. I hope that's helpful.

Here's the current thinking from the NWS:

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 219 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

High Pressure in place across Illinois will push across Indiana
today bringing dry and cool weather today.

Strong Low pressure is expected to build across the deep south
tonight and push north across Kentucky and Tennessee. As the low
approaches...wintry precipitation is expected to across Indiana on
Thursday. This will result in some accumulating snow on Thursday
along with the possibility of some freezing rain.

The Low will quickly depart on Thursday night...ending the
precipitation and bringing dry weather for Friday and Friday
Night. Another weak cold front will sweep across Central Indiana
on Saturday which could bring more light precipitation along
followed by more cold weather for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 1041 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

Not much change to ongoing forecast. Did increase cloud cover
across the southern half of the forecast area to account for a
more invasive shield of mid to upper level clouds as the upper-
level system over the Arklatex region heads our way during the day
today. The northern edge of the mid to low deck associated with
this approaching system is currently located over southeast
Missouri into southern Illinois and southern Indiana. Expect the
cloudiness to continue across much of central Indiana
today...especially over the southern half of the area. Minor
changes to temps but kept highs in the middle 30s going...as
there was no appreciable change to the forecast that would warrant
an increase or decrease there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Issued at 219 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

The GFS and Nam suggest a strong Cut-off Low lifting out of the
plume of tropical moisture to the south and pushing toward and
across Tennessee and Kentucky late tonight through Thursday.
Strong indicators of plentiful moisture appear in place given the
flow aloft. Excellent forcing appears in place as the low
approaches and forecast soundings respond showing deep saturation
through the day on Thursday. Top-down methods suggest some
freezing rain will be possible on onset...particularly across the
southern half of the forecast area as moisture arrives. Given the
favorable expected path of the upper low...confidence is high for
precip however confidence remains low on amounts and type. At a
minimum...winter weather advisories will likely be needed and
possibly more across the south where ice may mix in. Thus will
stick close to the forecast builder blends pops tonight but trend
toward 100 pops on Thursday. Furthermore will trend lows warmer
and highs cooler than the blends given the expected clouds and
precip.

Best forcing exits the area quickly on Thursday night as the
upper low departs the area to the northeast. Dry air arrives
overnight as the Low reaches the middle Atlantic states. Although
some lingering precip could still be present the first few hours
after 00Z...the trend will be toward drying out. Forecast
soundings show drying and subsidence within the column. Thus may
keep a few pops across the east as the system departs but will
overall trend toward a becoming partly cloudy and dry forecast.
Given the possible snow on the ground and expected cold air
advection will trend lows cooler than the blends.

High pressure over the deep south on Friday and Friday night will
nose north into the Ohio Valley. Forecast soundings and mid level
guidance shows dry air and subsidence. Will trend toward a partly
cloudy day and temps at or below the model blends.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 232 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

Ensembles are in good agreement in keeping broad upper troughing
over the Midwest and East Coast during this period. There are still
timing differences among the individual members as to a weak short
wave trough that is expected to move through the area over the
weekend.

There continues to be a rather wide spread among the ensembles with
respect to the timing of the precipitation threat with the weekend
disturbance, anywhere from during the day Saturday to as late as
Sunday night. Don`t see any real trends yet one way or another,
so for now will go with chance PoPs for light mixed precipitation
at times from Saturday through Sunday night. Precipitation amounts
with this system still look to be on the light side.


Snow or no snow?

@7:53pm

The radar shows that there's snow over Bloomington right now but nothing is falling outside.

The air is just too dry for for snow. Look at this sounding:


The farther apart the green line is from the red line means the drier the atmosphere is. The closer together they are, the more saturated the atmosphere is. 15km is 9 miles up in the air. 0km is at ground level. So, between 0 and 3km; the air nearest the ground is very dry and snow is likely evaporating before it hits the ground.

Did you see it?

Last night around 8:00pm there were light snow flurries. By 10:00pm there were snow showers for an hour. I would say this makes November 9th 2018 the first official day for a sticking snow in the fall season. Here's a picture from this morning.



Next, all eyes turn to Monday night as there is an 80% chance of snow falling after 9:00pm. I don't think anyone knows the exact amounts just yet but my guess is anywhere from 1-3 inches.

This pattern will slowly oscillate into a warmer pattern by the week of Thanksgiving. By then we could be seeing high temperature in the mid 50's.

Here's to the brave men and the crew of the "Big Fitz". Today is the anniversary of disappearance of the Edmund Fitzgerald.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vST6hVRj2A

Tomorrow's snow event.

It looks like the rain /snow line will set up just north of I-70. The northern half of Indiana will see snow overnight into tomorrow morning while the southern half will see mostly rain with a few flurries as the front moves by tomorrow afternoon.

Good news and bad news.

Perhaps I should say bad news and good news. It's going to be downright cold for the next eight days. There's also several chances for snow throughout the eight day period. The coldest day /night combo looks like next Tuesday with a high of 34 and a low of 19. That's probably bad news for most people unless you are a #BOTS fan.

The good news is that all the models are in agreement that we will warm up during that last week of November into the first week of December. By warm I mean temperatures in the mid 50's again.

In the mean time, stay warm and have your car battery tested. Auto Zone on 2437 W. 3rd street will test your battery for free. (No they are not paying me to say that!)

"AutoZone 2437 W 3rd St in Bloomington, IN is your go-to destination for quality aftermarket auto parts, do-it-yourself repair advice and tools, and everything you need to keep your car, truck or SUV running smoothly. Every AutoZone in Bloomington, IN offers free in-store Battery Testing, Battery Charging, Oil Recycling, our Loan-A-Tool® Program and Fix Finder - a simple Check Engine light tool that utilizes an extensive database from ASE certified mechanics to find the most likely fix."
https://www.autozone.com/locations/in/bloomington/2437-w-3rd-st.html

#BOTS!

Snow is on the way! Bloomington will see it's first snow of the fall season on Thursday night overnight into Friday morning. The NWS is calling it a rain /snow mix.

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/...
Issued at 307 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

Dry conditions are expected tonight with surface high pressure
building into the area. Should be noted even though majority of
guidance has the area dry tonight, the NAM bring some small QPF
amounts to the area late tonight. Still think moderate confidence
in dry conditions, but not willing to go high on that. Dry weather
is then the rule until Thursday night when the next low pressure
system approaches. This system will also bring colder air with it,
and should see a changeover from rain to snow late Thursday night
as well but no accumulation is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 237 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

Surface high pressure to the southwest will largely be the
dominant force during the long term period. A departing low
pressure system may result in some light precip Friday morning,
but this will quickly move out. Models indicate a clipper type
system may move through the Great Lakes late in the weekend, but
at this time they keep precipitation largely north of central
Indiana. That said, this will bear watching, as these systems
often can squeeze out surprise precipitation.

Blended initialization handled things relatively well and required
only minor adjustments.

#BOTS!

I guess you've heard the rumor by now. We might see our first snow next weekend. It's still to early to tell but it does look likely and after all, it is November.

But before we get to that we have to deal with more rain. Rain returns Sunday night. Strong storms are possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A cold front passes by on Thursday. Friday's high temperature will be 44 degrees.

Here's the analysis from the NWS:

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

Long term period looks to begin with the second and stronger in a
series of low pressure systems quickly moving northeast from the
Chicago area through the Great Lakes, with another round of
rainfall expected to continue into Tuesday and begin ramping down
Tuesday night.

The next system to develop along the large scale baroclinic zone
looks to slide eastward into the area and then pull northeast late
in the week as the larger scale upper level troughing strengthens
and drops into the Great Lakes, bringing with it what may be the
first real cold blast of the season. This may have the potential
to produce a few snowflakes as precipitation winds down next
Thursday night into Friday.

Temperatures will be on a steady cooling trend throughout the
period, with the coolest temperatures arriving toward the end of
the period.

Blended initialization handled things well enough and only a few
minor adjustments were required.

Have a Happy All Hallows Eve

Rainy from now until Friday morning. We'll see a beautiful Saturday before rain returns for Sunday night. Things seem to change after November 8. The GFS is hinting at cold and snow.



Peak fall colors are happening now.

Get your best fall pictures today and tomorrow. Heavy rains come in for Wednesday and Thursday.

Analysis and thoughts.

Highs in the 50's and lows in the 40's the next three days. This pattern will stay for a while. Things look very interesting around November 3rd to November 6th. Will see what tomorrow's computer run says. Most people are saying that November will be warmer but I'm not quite sold on that idea yet.

Also, if you love taking pictures of fall colors then I would suggest taking your camera with you this weekend and all of next week. The leaves are quickly approaching their peak colors. I'll post more pictures when I have them.

Fall colors are nearing their peak

That wind storm over the weekend brought down a lot of leaves. I doubt we'll see the spectacular colors that we've seen in years past.