Saturday, January 25, 2020

Do you know what today is?

The 42nd anniversary of the Great Blizzard of 1978. It didn't get much play in the news media today so I thought I would mention it here. Maybe we'll get a blizzard in February. If not, you can always get one at Dairy Queen.

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/history/retroindy/2016/01/25/retroindy-blizzard-1978/79293570/

https://www.dairyqueen.com/us-en/Menu/Treats/?localechange=1&


Friday, January 24, 2020

Dear #BOTS fans:

If February does not pan out, we are out of luck. Check out this info graphic from the NWS:




We have not had a Blizzard Warning in 1,429 days. That is terrible! Let's hope that February will make up for this deficit.

Here are the long term projections from the NWS:

.LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...

Issued at 319 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

Brief upper ridging moving through the area will bring dry
conditions for Monday night through Tuesday. Between Tuesday night
and Wednesday and upper wave will dig through the area from the
northwest, but there is little surface reflection of this feature
and the air should be relatively dry. Given this, the NBM is
showing only slight chances for precipitation Wednesday through
Wednesday night and made no adjustments from there, with rain the
main ptype Wednesday and a mix Wednesday night. More upper ridging
could slide through late Wednesday night into Friday morning, but
there is more variability in model solutions with this feature and
the subsequent approaching system. For temperatures, generally
looking at upper 30s to lower 40s for highs and upper 20s to lower
30s for lows. Confidence in dry weather is high through Tuesday
but drops to low after that, and confidence in temperatures is
moderate throughout.

Friday, January 17, 2020

Bad news for #BOTS fans.

While it will be much colder in the next seven days, the main precipitation type continues to look like rain events for our area. Maybe February will be better. We'll see.


Here's the latest discussion from the NWS:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
917 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM and AVIATION Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

High pressure overhead will steadily move east of the region, as a
strengthening area of low pressure lifts northeast from the
Southern Plains reaching Southern Wisconsin saturday morning. This
low pressure system will then quickly lift northeast with a
frontal boundary pushing east across Central Indiana, allowing
another surface ridge of high pressure to approach the Western
Ohio River Valley late in the weekend with much cooler
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 912 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

Forecast is evolving as expected. Current thoughts remain that
precipitation will begin late this afternoon as mix of rain and
snow with brief periods of freezing rain tonight before all rain
by late tonight and tomorrow. No changes made to snow and ice
accumulations. Previous discussion follows...


Early this morning a steady feed of dry northeast flow has kept
clouds out of the area, but temperatures have radiated into the
upper teens to lower 20s with dewpoints several degrees lower due
to the drying in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Given the
expected progressive flow, the anticipation is that the departing
surface ridge will loosens it`s influence on Central Indiana, and
likely allow steady moistening in the lower levels late this
afternoon/evening ahead of the next system. That being said, there
is some indications that the further downstream ridge may be
slightly delayed from pushing east, and thus allow some subsidence
to linger into the evening and perhaps delay the onset of precip
by a few hours. This could be key in lowering snowfall totals,
which presently is around an inch for the northern counties. Any
delay in precip may also impact the potential for freezing rain to
occur as well.

Forecast soundings continue to indicate a warm layer aloft lifting
overhead after 6pm this evening, setting the stage for a slow but
steady transition from the moist dendrites towards a full melt of
falling dendrites towards freezing rain due to a sub-freezing
surface. Guidance has backed off marginally with ice accums, with
less than one tenth for the overnight hours. Have adjusted the
current headline to include two row of counties further south, but
expect the timing to be a short period and by 9z Sat any precip
that will be falling will likely be just rain. Further north
soundings still support some sub-freezing conditions, but expect
this to be transitioning to all rain by daybreak Sat and will
maintain the ending of the headlines at 12Z sat further north.

Temperatures will be slowly rising overnight, so the low temps
will occur prior to midnight in the upper 20s to around 30 range,
pushing into the lower to middle 30s by 9-12z Sat.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Sunday night/...
Issued at 320 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

Warm/Moist conveyor will be ushering in a mild slug of air Sat
with temps quickly pushing into the 40s to perhaps lower 50s in
the southern forecast area. Otherwise the main concern will be on
the QPF totals given the remaining saturated soils across Central
Indiana. Expect steady rain to arrive shortly after daybreak and
linger through late morning, coupled with moderate forcing, and
precip totals could easily be between .5 to .75 inches before
noon. A dry wedge is progged to quickly lift northeast as the
mid-level trough axis arrives between 15-18Z Sat, which should
bring a brief end to the precip. But with cold air advection then
kicking in and wrap-around moisture bringing precip chances
quickly back to the region by early afternoon and transitioning
any precip to all snow. Given the northwest flow and cold air
advection behind the frontal passage, the depth of the moisture is
not substantial. Thus not anticipating much in the way of
accumulations on the back end of the shortwave Sat afternoon. But
temperatures will be falling through the afternoon into the 30s.

Quick push towards more typical winter like pattern for Sat ngt
into Sun, with a potent thermal trough arriving and allowing temps
Sat ngt to radiate into the single digits to lower teens.
Northwest cold air advection will persist, but expected to be dry
given strong subsidence from a surface ridge displaced to the
northwest of the region. Broad mid-level trough will then arrive
over the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley regions, holding Sun high
temps in the teens to lower 20s. There is some indications of a
weak clipper like system traversing the region later in the day
Sun/early Mon, but this looks to remain further north.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...

Issued at 358 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

For the majority of the extended period, conditions will be quiet
as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes region. A shortwave or
two embedded within an elongated trough to the north may progress
towards Indiana in the expected northwest flow Monday and Tuesday.
However, a lack of moisture will limit the possibility of
precipitation. For now, no precipitation has been included in Days 4
through 6, but future updates may include a slight chance. High
pressure and consistent northerly flow should allow for temperatures
to remain below normal Monday and Tuesday. Warmer temperatures are
expected to return Wednesday through the extended as high pressure
moves over the east coast, and southwesterly flow dominates the
region.

The next opportunity for precipitation will be Friday. A significant
storm system is expected to develop downstream of a amplified upper-
level trough late next week. Models are rather inconsistent with
the timing and location of this storm system. For now, warmer
temperatures looks likely for Friday, with a chance of perception
from the aforementioned system.

&&

Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Warm and rainy this week.

Well, I guess I shouldn't say warm. It will be warmer than average for January though. This current weather pattern we are in is a perfect scenario for an ice storm of the century at some point. Here is what the NWS has to say:

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday Night/...

Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

Wet. Moist. Soaking. Did I say Moist?

Moist and wet weather is expected to start of this period as the
ECMWF suggests a very active weather pattern starting on Friday.
Aloft...a deep trough of low pressure is expected to be digging
through the American southwest...resulting in a SW flow of warm
and moist air that will flow into the Ohio Valley. Gulf Moisture
will be available on Friday as the departing surface high
pressure provided strong southerly flow. The ECMWF suggests a
frontal boundary setting up on Friday across Michigan and
Illinois...putting Central Indiana in the warm (and moist) sector.
Several short waves are then suggested to push through the Ohio
valley on Friday through Saturday...providing forcing with the
moist air mass. Forecast soundings shows pwats over 1 inch...very
high for this time of year. Thus we have trended toward
categorical pops on Friday through Saturday as rain looks like a
certainty. Flooding may result and we will continue highlighting
this via ESF for now. With FROPA on Saturday will look for steady
or slowly falling temps through the day...with highs occurring
early.

The cold front and surface low pressure system is expected to
depart on Saturday Night...allowing some dry air to arrive on NW
flow. This should result in some dry weather for Sunday. Another
warn front and warm and moist southerly flow is expected to
return on Monday into Monday Night ahead of yet another short wave
aloft. Thus will allow pops to return to the forecast then.



Monday, December 30, 2019

A radar return from last night's storm system.

I've never seen this before. Storms were elongated from south to north when we were on the warm side of it. If you heard the wind last night, you could imagine how this could happen.




Saturday, December 28, 2019

All wx fans:

The pattern for January looks like one that favors a lot of ice. Just be prepared.

Dear #BOTS fans:

I am sorry to be the bearer of sad news, but our grandfather Old Man Winter passed away last Saturday from complications of a negative PNA pattern and a positive NAO pattern. He had been experiencing these symptoms for several weeks. The the polar vortex was intended to alleviate the problem but failed.

Following his wishes, we held a graveside service with at the Winter family plot in the Springfield City Cemetery. Old Man Winter was a modest, private man and wanted it that way. He is survived by his two melting children; Snow-man and Snow-woman.
______

Check out the above average temperatures for the next two weeks.






From the NWS:

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday Night/...

Issued at 352 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2019

After a few lingering rain and snow showers (NE third of central
Indiana) early Tuesday, high pressure will strengthen over the
region, and dry conditions can be expected late Tuesday through
Wednesday. Meanwhile, a weak warming trend will commence through
the period. High temperatures will start out in the upper 30s/low
40s on Tuesday and increase to the upper 40s/low 50s by Friday.
Overnight lows will also climb from the 20s on Tuesday night to
mid 30s by Friday night. After the dry period, focus will then
turn to the next system approaching from the southwest late in the
period, which will bring a more active pattern through the end of
the forecast period with chances for mainly rain showers and some
snow showers from Wednesday night through Friday.

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Monday, December 16, 2019

Good news and bad news for the long term.

The good is that temperatures will be above average from December 20th to the 31st. The NWS 6-10 day outlook looks like this:



And NWS 8-14 day outlook looks like this:




The bad news is that #BOTS fans will not see a white Christmas.

12/17 Tuesday morning commute will be icy.

Get up early and use caution when driving tomorrow morning. Drive slowly and leave 2-3 car-length spaces between you can the car in front of you. And please don't be lazy; clean the damn snow and ice off the top of your car. That can injure someone or damage another person's vehicle when it gets blown off onto the traffic behind you.

B.

Sunday, December 15, 2019

Saturday, December 14, 2019

Thursday, December 12, 2019

These guys again!



This is America. If you want to pay for a weather forecast, you can. That's your prerogative. I wouldn't do it because I trust the professionals at the National Weather Service and they provide weather predictions for free. And, there's a whole host of other free websites and apps for Android and Iphone that will do the same thing. All the data comes from the National Weather Service. Everything else is mere, conjecture, art and interpretation.

Now, that's not to say that these people are not professionals. They are. They hold professional degrees in meteorology. But, I would never pay for a weather forecast when you have the experts at the National Weather Service giving it to you for free. That's just MHO.