I bet you think winter is over don't you?

The flowers and trees are blooming in Bloomington. Is that why this place is called Bloomington? Oh well, enjoy the nice weather on Kirkwood this week. Changes are coming!

GFS Forecast for 3/18

GFS Forecast for 3/27

In the picture above, that snow showing up in Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia is possible but unlikely. I think it will end up being right over Indiana.

Here is what the National Weather Service is saying about long range forecast:

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Wednesday into Thursday Night...

A weakening upper short wave will move into the area Wednesday. Deep
moisture will be lacking. Thus, any showers that survive into
central Indiana Wednesday morning should weaken or dissipate
completely. Will have some slight chance PoPs during the morning,
but will go dry in the afternoon with the lack of any forcing.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a warm front will move
northeast through the area. A low level jet will bring moisture and
forcing along with the warm front. Thus, will go with likely PoPs
over much of the area later Wednesday night and likely or higher
PoPs all areas Thursday morning.

Questions then arise for additional forcing Thursday afternoon
before a low pressure system brings widespread forcing Thursday
night. Some models indicate upper energy moving through Thursday
afternoon, sparking off some showers and storms. Others keep best
chances for rain near the warm front across northern Indiana. With
the uncertainty, will not deviate much from blended guidance`s low
likely PoPs north (closer to the warm front) and chance PoPs south.

Will go likely PoPs Thursday night as the low pressure system
interacts with plentiful moisture and a continued low level jet.

If the atmosphere can recover from Thursday morning`s rainfall,
instability and shear will be high enough for a conditional severe
thunderstorm threat later Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
Uncertainty remains high though given impacts from morning rain as
well as potential interference from stronger convection to the south
and west of central Indiana.

Warm air will remain across central Indiana with highs in the 60s to
lower 70s and lows in the 50s.

Friday and Saturday...

A cold front will move through on Friday, but best moisture will be
east of the area. Will keep some lower PoPs around, mainly Friday
morning. Friday night and Saturday, the area will be in between
systems and dry.

Saturday night and beyond...

An upper trough will approach the area through Sunday and then move
in for Monday. Ahead of it, a cold front will move through on
Saturday night. Moisture will be mainly tied up to the south with a
southern system, Will go dry most areas through Sunday.

As cold air aloft moves in with the upper trough on Monday, a few
snow/rain showers will be possible.

Temperatures will fall to below normal on Monday, with highs only in
the lower to middle 40s. Monday night`s lows will be in the 20s.

Models are hinting at the cold temperatures may not last as long as
previously thought, with zonal flow potentially returning by Thursday
the 21st.