The "S" Word!

Welp, I don't like to participate in hype so I don't mention snow until the National Weather Service mentions it first, and they have. Here is the latest discussion from the National Weather Service office out of Indianapolis:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
628 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

High pressure will continue to break down tonight ahead of a
strong upper level low pressure system that is expected to bring
widespread rain and a few thunderstorms to the area starting late
tonight and continuing through tomorrow night. Dry conditions are
expected for the early parts of the work week with additional
chances for rain and potentially a few snowflakes Wednesday and
Thursday as another potent upper level system moves through the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

The overnight period will begin dry and end with rain moving into
the area. A strong upper level low pressure system that is
currently over the Southern Plains will begin to move northeast
tonight bringing plenty of gulf moisture into the area. Rain is
expected to begin after 3 AM starting from the south and moving
north through the rest of the night.

Winds will gradually pick up to around 30 mph as strong pressure
gradients build as the surface low nears. Rainfall amounts tonight
will generally be less than a quarter inch with areas north of
I-70 receiving little to no rain.

Low temperatures are expected to fall into the low to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...

Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

The primary focus for the period will be tracking chances for rain and
possibly a few thunderstorms through Saturday night. The
aforementioned low pressure system will continue to track to the
northeast through the day with the center of the surface low just
across the border in Illinois by 8 PM Saturday evening. The
morning model runs continue to show a heavier axis of
precipitation following the surface low with additional heavy rain
across the southeast counties.

A dry slot looks to develop during the late evening hours across
much of central Indiana which may limit total rainfall amounts.
With that in mind, plan on increasing the blended POPs to near 100
for much of the day before gradually lowering during the late
evening into the overnight hours. Total rainfall looks to be
around 1.5-2.5 inches with some locally higher amounts possible.

Rainfall rates look to be fairly reasonable so even with the high
amounts of QPF, widespread flooding is not expected with some
isolated flooding possible.

In addition to the rain, winds will gust to 30-40 mph with good
pressure gradient forces and strong winds aloft in play as the
system passes through. If winds aloft mix down better than
anticipated, isolated wind gusts in excess of 45 mph are possible
and a wind advisory may be needed in a future forecast package to
account for the possibility.

Chances for rain will end Sunday morning with high pressure
building through the rest of the day and in place through the rest
of the period.

Temperatures will generally be near normal with highs upper 50s to
mid 60s. Lows will fall into the low 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

The GFS remains a fast outlier with a strong midweek to late week
system. Teleconnections and typical fast GFS bias favor the slower
blend. The Canadian may be too slow, however. The National Blend
also supports a solution near the 12z ECMWF which suggests the
trough will move through next Thursday night into Friday. Could see
some snow mix in Wednesday night and Thursday night, although not
confident in the builder small snow accumulation as grounds will
still be relatively warm.

Look for a dry or mostly dry cold front to move through Wednesday
which will result in below normal temperatures in the upper 40s to
mid 50s to start the long term.

Well below normal blend temperatures look reasonable with highs in
the 40s and lower 50s by Wednesday and overnight lows in the lower
and mid 30s Wednesday night and upper 20s Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 260000Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 628 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

VFR conditions expected through early Saturday with rapidly
deteriorating conditions thereafter as steady and locally heavy
rainfall overspreads central Indiana.

Thick cirrostratus remain across the area early this evening with
pockets of mid level clouds. The boundary layer remains dry
courtesy of an area of high pressure passing through the Great
Lakes. Tropical Storm Olga currently sitting in the northern Gulf
of Mexico with a cutoff upper low over the southern Plains. These
two features will interact tonight into Saturday and as the high
departs off to the northeast...deep tropical moisture will surge
north-northeast into the Ohio Valley as the remnants of Olga
transition into a strong mid latitude cyclone.

After a quiet night with clouds thickening and lowering
late...rain will rapidly overspread all terminals Saturday morning
with IFR and lower conditions developing by midday into the
afternoon. May see some decrease in rainfall coverage late day as
the low tracks across the area with more scattered convection. The
strength of the system will produce stronger east-southeast winds
Saturday afternoon and evening with gusts at or exceeding 30kts
becoming possible late day. Presence of an intense low level jet
with the surface low suggests a potential for low level wind
shear by the afternoon but have chosen to hold off any mention
due to the strength of the surface winds and gusts.

Subtle improvements in ceilings may come Saturday evening but
expect restrictions to linger into Sunday morning.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.