A warm pattern is in place for now.

We are in a la nina type winter which might prove to be a wild ride this upcoming winter. For now though, the pattern looks slightly warmer than average for the next ten days and maybe beyond due to the persistent southeast ridge and nonstop tropical / hurricane systems to our south. Here's what the National Weather Service says:

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020

A weak upper trough will continue its approach tonight and then move
through Thursday. Any forcing with this trough will be weak. Most of
the moisture with this system will be at or above 500mb. Thus expect
only clouds with this system. Skies will become partly to mostly
cloudy tonight into Thursday.

These clouds will keep temperatures up tonight and will keep
Thursday`s temperatures from getting quite as warm as today (but
still above normal with no change in airmass).

Upper ridging will return after the trough passes, and high pressure
will remain in control at the surface Thursday night into Friday
night. The atmosphere will be dry once again, so expect mostly clear
conditions. Above normal temperatures will continue again with no
change in airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020

A strong upper level ridge and surface high pressure will gradually
begin to break down Saturday into early Sunday as a seasonably
strong upper level trough tracks across the Rockies into the
Northern Plains.  The only impacts to central Indiana from this
system will be some increased cloud cover Saturday night into Sunday
as Gulf air begins to advect into the area. As this first trough
exits, a secondary trough is expected to move across the Central
Plains Monday through Wednesday with small chances for rain across
central Indiana starting Tuesday morning with better chances during
the afternoon and evening hours. In addition, record high temps are
possible Sunday and Monday before the upper level system arrives.

Confidence remains quite low in timing for chances for rain and
whether anything impacts central Indiana on Tuesday vs later in the
week. The deterministic and ensemble guidance is struggling to
handle the two aforementioned troughs with how quickly they exit the
Rockies and how strong surface cyclogenesis is as they move into the
Plains. Chances for thunder currently look too low for a mention in
the forecast, especially with how low confidence is on timing and
strength of the low.  Pressure gradients do though look strong
enough for gusty winds, especially into Tuesday with widespread
gusts to 25 mph likely.

Temperatures will be much above average through the period.

Also, check check these out:








Here is my interpretation of the storm track that is setting up.



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