It's hot but it's not that hot.
If you are a model watcher, the models are forecasting high temperatures that are about 4 to 5 degrees higher than what will actually occur.
Today is Tuesday July 30th at 4:15pm and the current temperature is 88 degrees. The HRRR for today at 4:00pm say 93 degrees. Obviously that is off by 5 degrees.
Perhaps this is a winter omen for 2025.
I saw Bloomington's finest parked on South Henderson Street. Maybe this is good news! #BOTS!
Tornadoes are possible between 6pm and 10pm today on Tuesday, July 9, 2024.
Bloomington will be on the southwest side of the storm at that time so be alert. See page 4 of the NWS bulletin.
https://www.weather.gov/media/ind/DssPacket.pdf
Beryl is very close by. My guess is that it centered over Paducah, Kentucky
As of 12:00PM July, 9, there are no flood watches posted for Monroe County. Here is what the National Weather Service is saying:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 836 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for isolated tornadoes, heavy rain, and flooding this evening into the early overnight. - Rain amounts around 1-2.5 inches, highest towards Lafayette. - Tornado threat greatest south of I-70 and east of I-69. - Windy on Wednesday; Beryl Remnants Exiting && .FORECAST UPDATE... Updated probabilities to reflect ongoing initial band of rain, and made a few other minor adjustments to various fields. The forecast remains on track in general. Still concerned about tornadoes late this afternoon into this evening. It won`t take much instability with such rich lower tropospheric moisture and low LCL heights. 0-3-km CAPE is a more useful proxy for near-ground buoyancy that is key to tornadoes in these tropical environments. Small numbers translate northward through the southern half of the area roughly this evening, and this pairs with sufficient shear for tornadoes during that time. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Synoptic Overview. A gradually deepening upper level trough associated with the subtropical jet will ingest the remnants of Beryl and bring the storm northeastward with increasing speed. As it does so, the system will become more extratropical in nature. Latest model guidance has a pretty solid handle on the track of the low with gradual cyclogenesis expected through the late evening and overnight hours tonight which will help to tighten surface pressure gradients and increase the low level shear. There is fairly good ensemble agreement in a track roughly along the I-69 corridor with some uncertainty towards Wednesday morning as to how strong the cyclogenesis will be. Severe Threat. The main focus will be the impacts of Beryl this evening into the early overnight hours. This system`s hazards will be two-fold. The first and primary threat will be the potential for brief tornadoes and damaging winds in the right front quadrant of the tropical remnants which currently looks to set up along and south of the I-69 corridor. Latest high resolution soundings show a mixed bag for tornado potential into the evening with easterly to northeasterly surface flow at around 8-10kts with a gradual shift to more southeasterly at 3-5kft. This gradual shift doesn`t create a ton of turning within the hodograph, but does allow for periods of 0-1 km SRH to get to 150-200 m^2/s^2. LCLs will be very low with the near saturation to the surface which will limit the need for strong mesocyclone to generate tornadic storms. With the tropical nature, lapse rates will be moist adiabatic which will limit the instability and higher end threat, but with the fairly strong low level shear, the threat is definitely there for brief, low-end tornadoes. Flooding Threat. The second threat will be pockets of flooding across the northwestern corner of the forecast area. The combination of warm temperatures aloft which will make this a primarily warm rain process and with PWATs near climatological records, this will allow for a very efficient rain process with brief periods of rain rates around 1-2 inches per hour. Areas towards Lafayette will also see a longer period of rain with precipitation beginning this morning and continuing through the early overnight. Areas to the southeast of the more broad heavy rain are more likely to see amounts closer to 1- 2 inches which will certainly help the ongoing drought but shouldn`t be as impactful. The ongoing dryness will help to limit the overall impacts of the rain, but the high rates may allow for at least some brief flooding. Timing. Light rain will begin falling over the next couple of hours but the more steady rain will start towards mid morning across the western and northwestern portions of the forecast area. The main threat for severe weather will be from 6 PM to 2 AM but there is some low threat for isolated cells mid to late afternoon across far southern Indiana. The rain threat will continue later into the overnight hours but will taper towards daybreak. && .LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)... Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Wednesday... As we start Wednesday, models suggest the center of the Beryl remnants will be found over eastern Central Indiana. Ample moisture is still expected to be found with the system at that time, particularly on the back side, wrapping around the circulation center. Dry air is shown to be intruding into the system from the southwest through the course of the day. Models suggest this system will push northeast to SW Ontario by late Wednesday afternoon. Thus will focus best pops during the day across the north and east parts of Central Indiana. Another caveat in the forecast for Wednesday will be winds. A strong pressure gradient is suggested given the deep low. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph and gusts to near 40 mph will be possible. BUFKIT soundings show momentum transfer winds near 40 knts through the afternoon. A wind advisory may be needed, as wind speeds of this magnitude will easily blow about unsecured outdoor items. Given the expected clouds and rain as well as the tropical air mass that will be in place, highs will mainly be in the middle and upper 70s. Thursday and Friday... As Beryl remnants depart northeast, the upper pattern for Thursday and Friday is suggestive of a large high over the western United States, with a trough axis in place over the Great Lakes, stretching SW across IL to MO. This trough like pattern aloft will be a favorable feature for shower and storm development. Meanwhile at the surface, large surface high pressure is suggested to be in place, but the air mass is suggested to be warm and humid. Forecast soundings on both days suggest attainable convective temperatures along with CAPE present with little to no cap in place. Thus daily shower and storm chances will be needed with highs each day in the upper 80s to near 90. Saturday Through Monday... During this time, models continue to suggest an upper pattern with strong high pressure over the American west. This results in a weak NW flow spilling in to Indiana along with the lingering, persistent upper trough over the Great Lakes and Indiana. At this point within the lower levels strong high pressure is suggested to set up over the southeastern states, allowing a warm and humid southerly flow in to Central Indiana. Again, forecast soundings continue to suggest attainable convective temperatures with plentiful CAPE available. Thus continued diurnal daily showers and storm chances will be needed. Of note, a bit of warm air advection suggested on Monday allows 700mb temps to surge over 10C, which may result in a weak cap inhibiting convection. With warm air mass and humid air in place, highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s will be expected.
Watch out for Burl, ahem, I mean Beryl.
The remnants of Hurricane Beryl will be over Indiana Tuesday night into Wednesday.
https://x.com/NWSIndianapolis?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
A line of storms has formed in southern Indiana.
If severe storms are going to break out, I think it will be in the area I have highlighted in yellow.
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