3:00pm from Weather dot com.
Heat wave and then a cool down and then a heat wave again.
The intense heat wave is not over yet. After topping out at 98 degrees today, temperatures will fall for the weekend but beware, the heat wave will retrun.
September 13 through September 16 looks very dangerous.
Prepare for unprecedented and unpredictable weather.
If you haven’t heard about it yet, we are approaching a ‘Super El Niño’. It is being defined as a ‘Super El Niño’ because the temperature in parts of the pacific ocean are expected to reach +5C degrees. The last strong El Niño that we had was in the year 1877 and that was thought to be between +3C and +4C degrees. PBS made a short twelve minute documentary about this historical event in which nearly 4 million people died.
The peak of +5C degrees is expected to happen around the last few days of December 2026 and New Year’s Day of 2027. This means that the upcoming winter is going to be wild and highly unpredictable because scientists don’t have any data to make a reliable forecast. It doesn’t mean they are guessing but it does mean that no one has ever seen anything like this before. The upcoming winter could be warm or extremely cold or dry or rainy or snowy. Maybe we are in for the ice storm of the century. No one knows but everyone should be prepared and weather-aware. As winter approaches, you’re going to hear more and more about the ‘Super El Nino’.
Also in the news is the flooding in Nepal. So far, 600 people are dead and 2,500 people are missing in what scientists believe was caused by a melting_glacier due to Global Warming. We should all be prepared for more events like this to happen all over the world and, America is not immune to it. I can’t stress this point enough. Please be weather-aware.
How long is this going to last? Scientists seem to think that this will create a rubber band effect. That means that when you stretch it and let go of it, it snaps back. Scientists think that next year the pattern will over correct itself by going into a Super La Niña phase but that remains to be seen.
Okay, closer to home we have a heatwave to contend with starting tomorrow, Sunday, August 30 and lasting until September 9. The weather models are all over the place with how intense the heat will be but we will see temperatures in the 90’s for the next ten days or so. Here are two examples from the GFS and the EURO.
Get prepared.
Model mayhem and heat.
This upcoming week is going to be crucial in what plays out for the following weeks. The GFS model has us getting into the 90's but cooling off substantially by July 20. The EURO model has us getting into the upper 90's and to 100 by Thursday with the heat dome sticking around. Which one is correct? We shall see.
Insane and intense heat for Montana and North Dakota
I've never seen anything like this before! If I told you that by this weekend it will be hotter in Montana than in Mexico would you believe me?
This will be all over the news in the next few days. If you have friends in Bozeman, MT or Bismarck, ND you should probably warn them now. They are used to intense cold but not this kind of intense heat.
The GFS has the hottest temperatures.
The EURO has slightly cooler temperatures but not by much.
The bad news about the GFS vs the EURO is that the GFS keeps the heat in that same area while the EURO moves it east into Indiana. Could we get to 100 degrees a week from today? It certainly is within the 7-day forecast range. Because we are in an unprecedented El Nino phase, I don't think you should trust your phone weather apps until Monday 7-13-26.
No matter what happens, the National Weather Service is sure that the most intense heat will set up across Montana and North Dakota.
The 90's are coming back!
Starting Sunday, high temperatures will be in the 90's through most of next week.
Also, line of storms might try to push through tomorrow between 2pm and 7pm.
Heavy Rain & a Chance of Tornadoes Tonight.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms tonight with a chance of tornadoes. Let's hope this is not a 'never ending story'. Sometimes patterns set up and stay in place for long periods of time.
Severe storms will be in Indiana on Wednesday, June 17.
You will want to stay alert on Wednesday. All of the data points to severe storms and heavy rain. The National Weather Service has issued a map showing the severity of the storms and their location.
Expect summer heat to settle in next week.
Expect the temperatures to be in the upper 80's to near 90 degrees next week.
What you wont here in the news is that a larger winter-like low pressure system will appear over the upper midwest for the second half of June bringing below normal temperatures. The heat will last until June 16 and then there will be a gradual cooldown.
Brand new weather model debuts today and more on August 31, 2026.
The EURO model and the EURO AI model got an upgrade last night and some models are being replaced by other models on August 31, 2026.
National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD Service Change Notice 26-48
Here is the AI summary of the changes:
Effective August 31, 2026, the National Weather Service (NWS) in Silver Spring, MD, will implement the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) and RRFS Ensemble Forecast System (REFS), replacing the legacy NAM, HREF, SREF, and HiresW models. Other 2026 changes include updates to climate data assimilation (CORe), Day 4-5 excessive rainfall discussions, and the transition of GFS model products. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Key 2026 Model Changes and Updates
- RRFS and REFS Implementation (Aug 31, 2026): NCEP will launch these new modeling systems, marking a major shift in convective-allowing modeling.
- Retirement of Legacy Models: The NAM, HREF, SREF, and HiresW models will be retired on Aug 31, 2026.
- CORe Implementation (Mar 2026): The Climate Object-oriented Reanalysis (CORe) replaces the Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS) for atmospheric reanalysis, offering improved data from 1950 to present.
- ERO Enhancements (May 2026): Day 4 and 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) discussions are being integrated into the QPFERD product.
- GFS Product Changes: Public comments are being solicited for the proposed termination of various Global Forecast System (GFS) products. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Operational Changes & Notices
- NOMADS Upgrade (Feb 23, 2026): OpenDAP access is being retired, requiring users to switch to grib filter or HTTPS downloads for NCEP model data.
- Weather Prediction Models: Recent updates include improvements to the National Blend of Models (NBMv4.2/v5.0) and the experimental Wind Tropical Cyclone forecast Message (WTCM).
- Notification System: Official notices are available through the NWS Service Change Notices page. [2, 5, 6, 7, 8]
For the full list of retired products and detailed technical changes, refer to SCN 26-47. [1]
AI responses may include mistakes.
New update from the National Weather Service includes Bloomignton.
The latest severe weather outlook issued from the National Weather Services's Storm Prediction Center now includes a slight risk for Bloomington Indiana. Yesterday it was a marginal risk. It also includes a moderate risk for Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri which is typical 'tornado alley'.
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