It's going to be cold until Friday. On Friday, Saturday and Sunday the high temperatures will be around 40 degrees. That could also change depending on how much snow we get.
There's a 50% chance of snow tonight after 10pm. There's a better chance for snow Tuesday night. The chance stands at 80% so that is likely to happen.
As for the long term, the models are in disagreement over how long the cold sticks around. The Canadian model keeps us cold until February 15th. The American model has warming up around February 9th and up to 70 degrees by February 13th. The Euro is suggesting warm air arrives by the February 15th. Another model called the (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model Analysis) or ICON has it cold until February 13th.
Here's how the NWS sees things:
.NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 210 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 Surface analysis early this morning shows arctic high pressure centered over Missouri. Cold NW flow was in place across Indiana. GOES16 showed some lake cloud steaming off of Lake Michigan and a few associated flurries within that flow had made their way to parts of eastern central Indiana. Water Vapor imagery shows mainly a quick NW flow in place...with the next wave entering the western plains. Forecast soundings and time heights show a dry column today along with subsidence. Models suggest that the surface high over Missouri will quickly pass across Kentucky and Southern Indiana. Thus with plenty of dry air and subsidence in place...only a few high clouds will be expected within the quick flow aloft. THus partly cloudy should work fine. Flurries from last night and the ongoing cold air advection may still result in some slick spots early this morning on untreated surfaces...will continue to mention with an SPS this morning. Temperature wise...cold air advection continues through mid day...before the high quickly shifts east of Indiana and flow becomes more southerly. Given our cold start this morning and cold air advection for much of the day...will still trend highs at or below the forecast builder blend. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/... Issued at 210 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 GFS and NAm suggest a quick moving short wave...currently entering the western plains to arrive across Indiana this evening. Forecast sounding quickly saturated this evening in response to this wave and Time heights show good saturation aloft...but limited moisture within the lower levels. At the surface...a poorly defined cusp area looks to pass across the area. Thus confidence for precip is a bit low with this system as the lower levels seem ill defined and the models continue to have a bit of trouble handling the upper waves. Furthermore...the dry air within the lower levels did in our last system...and the dry within the lower levels is expected to be back as dew points in the single digits or less are the rule across the area. Thus will trend pops tonight at or below the forecast builder blend with low confidence. Given the SW lower level flow...warm air advection and clouds expected...will trend lows at or above forecast builder blends. Another large and quick moving high pressure system will push across the area on Tuesday. Time heights showing dry air within the column once again...but this time some lower lever moisture looks trapped within the cold air advection. This moisture looks to mix out by late in the day. Thus morning clouds should be giving way to some afternoon peeks of sun. Will trend highs on Tuesday at or below the forecast builder blends given the ongoing cold air advection. A stronger and more organized short wave trough looks to push toward Indiana on Late Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this point...a more favorable set-up for precipitation appears as the flow aloft ahead of the wave becomes SWerly...allowing a surge of moisture into the Ohio Valley. Lower levels also set up a bit more organized as a frontal boundary across Kentucky and Tennessee shows a sharp gradient and an focus area for lower level convergence. Forecast soundings show good saturation and moisture during the overnight period and on early Wednesday. Better chances look to exist farther south on Tuesday Night and Wednesday...closer to the frontal boundary area of focus. Overall however...confidence in the models is low due to the poor performance as of late. Thus will stick close to the forecast builder blend for now...taking the wait and see approach. By Wednesday Night...the models suggest High pressure and subsidence return to Central Indiana as the short wave aloft and associated trough aloft exit to the east and push the frontal boundary farther southeast. Thus will trend toward partly cloudy skies and trend lows at or below the forecast builder blends given the cold air advection and NW lower level flow. &&
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