Is winter over?

No. Winter ends on March 20 so there's about two and half months left to go. So far the temperatures have been nice and above average there are signs that the pattern might change during the last week of January.

There's also talk of a snowstorm this coming Friday into Saturday but it's too early to tell. The placement and timing of storm still have to worked out. If this is a nocturnal event then we could see some snow. If it is a daytime event we'll likely see rain. The trend this year has been for us to be on the warm side of the storm which means rain. The other trend has been suppression of storms to our south as we get closer to the event.

Here are some things to keep in mind as we head through January:

The old southeast ridge.

Sudden Stratospheric Warming took place in the end of December. This can send polar air southwards but it might go towards Europe rather than the US.

The National Weather Service see a drier pattern in the extended period. Sorry BOTS fans.

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday Night/...

Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Jan 7 2019

Below normal temperatures will persist through Thursday with
decent northwest flow around a ridge of Canadian high pressure.
The normal/above normal temperatures will return by the weekend
though as the wind shifts ahead of an upper low on Friday. This
low will also be responsible for light rain and snow showers at
times from Friday night through Saturday. Little to no snow
accumulation is expected though. After that, a dry pattern will
resume again through the remainder of the extended period. Latest
blended initialization handled the pattern well, so no changes
were needed.

Which means be very suspicious of snow prediction graphics that you see on the internet.



1 comment:

  1. The older I get, the more I realize that I don't understand anything about Indiana weather.

    ReplyDelete