Smooth sailing ahead!

After three weeks of boring weather, there were spectacular storms clouds this evening. I'm not sure how many people noticed because it happened so quickly. Here are my pictures from the south side of  Bloomington near Bloomington South High School, Dairy Queen and Winslow Road.






The latest radar image as of 10:00pm shows this:


After tonight and tomorrow we return to a very quiet and boring pattern.

I'm sorry for not giving an update for so long but the weather pattern we are in is very boring. When is the last time someone heard a tornado siren in Monroe County? Was it last fall?

Here is what the National Weather Service office out of Indianapolis has to say:

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

Showers with isolated thunderstorms will move in to the region
this evening and will continue overnight. By tomorrow morning
shower coverage will increase and move towards the southeast.
Additional development of thunderstorms is possible tomorrow
afternoon. By Friday night, dry and cool conditions will settle
in and remain through the weekend. For next week, central Indiana
will be positioned is a warm but relatively dry pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

Scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms continued to
push across the southeastern half of central Indiana this evening.
This activity will continue to move east, so adjusted PoPs to
reflect this. Meanwhile, another line of convection back across
eastern Illinois looks to impact the northwest forecast area soon.
Tweaked existing PoPs for this line.

Convection should diminish some as heating is lost, but it shouldn`t
go away completely with the upper trough nearby and a cold front
approaching during the night.

Not expecting any severe storms, but heavy rain and gusty winds
remain possible this evening.

Adjusted current temperatures as needed based on latest
observations. Only needed to make minor adjustments to overnight
lows.

Previous discussion follows...

Clouds are moving off to the north, providing periods of sunshine
and partly cloudy skies for portions of central Indiana.
Conditions look to remain dry for the majority of region this
afternoon and into the evening, prior to the emergence of a weak
wave from the west. Lingering boundaries created by this morning`s
precipitation may initiate isolated regions of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon near the western Indiana border,
therefor PoPs have been slightly increased towards the west.

Dew points in the mid 60s will provide sufficient moisture for
shower development late this evening as lift increases with the
impending wave. CAPE values above 1500 J/kg should also be enough
to initiate isolated convective clusters within these rain
showers. However, the lack of resemblance of any jets aloft will
hinder thunderstorm development and any updrafts that become
robust should diminish relatively quickly. A thunderstorm with
temporary small hail and gusty winds is possible this evening, but
severe thunderstorms will be unlikely.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into the overnight
hours, and should start to curtail as the wave moves east of the
region. Clouds should extend throughout central Indiana, limiting
diurnal cooling and keeping overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...

Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

By Friday morning, an upper level trough will approach Indiana, and
with it a distinguished surface trough. Ahead of this trough,
scattered to numerous showers will be present. Isolated convection
is possible in the morning, but lapse rates will be limited given
non-peak diurnal warming. Showers will be scattered during the
morning hours in NW central Indiana.  These showers will slowly move
from WNW to ESE during the day. During the afternoon, as surface
temperatures increase, convective lines may develop out ahead of a
frontogenetical region. Increased thunderstorm development should be
isolated to southeast portions of central Indiana, where the front
is not expected to move through until earlier in the evening. Any
variation in the progression of this front will alter where
initiation will occur. Surface winds will increase ahead of the
surface trough as the day progresses. Some regions, specifically
towards the southeast, may experience brief non-thunderstorm
inducing wind gusts greater than 20 mph.

By Friday night, the upper level trough should be east of Indiana
and a cooler air mass will settle into the region. Given decreased
cloud cover and moderate cold air advection, temperatures were
lowered slightly against model progs. Expect overnight lows to be in
the low 50s. The remainder of the weekend will stay cooler than
normal with highs in the low 70s. The presence of fairly robust
surface high pressure, and a broad ridge aloft keep conditions
dry with mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...

Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

Upper level ridging will move in at the start of the period as
northwesterly flow begins to end and temperatures warm. Much of
the period is expected to be dry with small chances for rain and
thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday as a weak wave rides the
upper level ridge. Best chances look to be across the northern
counties at this time. A stronger wave arrives by midweek bringing
better chances for rain and storms with potential of a complex of
thunderstorms in that timeframe. Severe weather threats don`t
look too high right now, but will be dependent on the timing of
the system. The potential is also there for much of the area to
see 90 degrees on Wednesday assuming the upper level wave tracks
as currently expected.

Temperatures will begin the period near to below average before
quickly warming to above average the middle of next week.

&&

No comments:

Post a Comment