Meterological fall is here!

Yesterday was the firsday of meteroligical fall. You can read more about what means from the NOAA.

Meterologica verus atronomical seasons.

Check out this awesome forecast discussion from the National Weather Service:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
543 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

A very pleasant and uneventful period is expected for the short term
forecast under the control of surface high pressure and the
periphery of an upper level ridge centered to our southwest.

Forecast soundings depict a very dry column today, with only some
high level moisture arriving late in the day into tonight, thus
expect a sunny day across central Indiana. Flow throughout the
boundary layer is light so no significant gustiness is expected,
with winds generally northeasterly at 4-8KT.

A rapidly weakening upper level impulse riding the periphery of the
upper ridge will be accompanied by some gradually increasing mid and
high level moisture tonight into Friday, so an increase in cloud
cover is to be expected. Weak forcing for vertical motion and very
dry low levels will prevent any precipitation with this impulse.

Low level thicknesses suggest temps should very slightly warm
throughout the short term, although the increase in mid and high
cloud on Friday may temper this even more to just a degree or two
over today`s expected highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Lows
tonight in a decent radiational cooling environment should approach
but not reach dewpoints owing again to the increasing high cloud,
likely bottoming out in the low to mid 50s, although an isolated
reading briefly dipping into the upper 40s isn`t entirely out of the
question depending on the thickness of the high cloud.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

Friday Night through Saturday Night...

The high pressure both aloft and at the surface will keep most of
central Indiana dry early Friday night.  However, the mid levels
will slowly begin to saturate late Friday night, becoming completely
saturated at all levels by Saturday afternoon per forecast
soundings.  A surface low is progged to move through the area on
Saturday, putting central Indiana in a moist, warm sector as winds
shift to the southwest.  This will be a quick event though with the
associated cold front already through the area by Saturday night. As
a result, will keep the highest rain chances in the Saturday
morning/afternoon time frame with a quick downward trend by Saturday
evening.  For now, it appears the best chances for any thunderstorms
will be confined to the southern half of the forecast area where
instability will be best.

Sunday through Wednesday Night...

A low pressure system will continue its progression through the
Great Lakes Region on Sunday, but upper flow over central Indiana
will already be transitioning to a more zonal flow ahead of the
impending subsidence with the next high pressure system. So, will
trend toward a dry forecast from Sunday through Tuesday morning
with just low chance Pops on Tuesday/Tuesday night as an upper
wave/system pass through northern Indiana. After that disturbance,
it will be more dry weather for Wednesday/Wednesday night.

2 comments:

  1. Sounds a lot better than what we're getting in the northeast!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh boy! I saw pictures of torrential flooding up there. I hope you and G are doing well.

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