The Bloomington snow hole! The storm skips over Bloomington and Monroe County. The forecasted high temperature is 38 today but, will it get there? I'm skeptical.
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 634 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 614 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 Radar mosaic was showing modest snow banding with slightly heavier embedded pockets moving northeast across areas north of Noblesville. This activity looks to be associated with the union of weak and sloping 850-700 millibar frontogenesis and slightly negative EPV. Thus, had to raise and extend PoPs through 13z. Snow accumulation with this banding will be less than half an inch except for perhaps isolated locales. && .Short Term...(Today through Friday) Issued at 303 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 - LIGHT WINTRY MIX ENDING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING - ROUND TWO OF THE WINTRY MIX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT Very complicated forecast with precip type and transition zone location the main concerns. Remainder of the overnight... 295K isentropic lift is expected to diminish toward 12z. Currently, Paducah and Evansville radars were showing fairly light returns over south central Indiana within an isentropic lift regime, in the right rear quadrant of a 150 plus knot anti-cyclonic jet over the eastern Great lakes and in an area of modest 850 millibar frontogenesis and another area of light to moderate returns moving into the Wabash Valley from east central Illinois. This could result in slick untreated roads for the morning commute despite little ice or snow accumulation. Currently, most locales were reporting unknown precipitation suggestive of freezing rain or drizzle perhaps mixed with sleet. However, LAF and MIE were reporting snow. The precipitation is expected to move out of central Indiana into Ohio by sunrise. Today and Tonight... Models in good agreement on the synoptic level. Upper low seen in water vapor imagery over southeastern Utah early this morning embedded within an upper trough that extended south into Arizona. This feature will quickly get the boot from a Pacific Northwest trough and eject quickly northeast across the lower Great Lakes tonight. This will induce a surface wave to lift northeast across eastern Kentucky tonight along a stalled front. 295K isentropic lift will ramp up again by this afternoon as the upper trough gets closer and another 150 plus knot jet moves into northern Missouri around the base and just upstream of the trough with the eastern Great Lakes jet still in place. In response, a low level 50 knot jet will move into central and eastern Kentucky. With south central sections closer to this feature, south central sections should see the most QPF through tonight. Precip should quickly spread northeast across the forecast area after 2 or 3 pm and end from east to west overnight with the exit of the trough. Surface temperatures are expected to rise just above freezing to near the I-70 corridor before the precip returns this afternoon. Areas south of the corridor should see all rain through the early evening but HRRR BUFKIT soundings support a mix of sleet and freezing rain initially near the I-70 corridor before it eventually transitions to snow from northwest to southeast this evening and overnight. Finally, northwestern sections should see mainly snow but with 700-500 millibar dry air moving in, would not be surprised to see freezing drizzle before the precip moves out. Ice amounts around a tenth of an inch and slightly higher are possible near the I-70 corridor with light snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches north of the corridor and an inch or less south of the corridor. Meanwhile, far southern sections could see close to an inch of addition rain which could delay the river flooding progress on the lower Wabash, White and East Fork White. Friday... Surface high pressure will move into the Missouri Valley late Friday with zonal flow aloft. That said, plenty of residual low level moisture suggests the low clouds will be difficult to scour out and combined with northwest winds, do not see us getting out of the lower to middle 30s. && .Long Term...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 303 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 Dry weather is forecast throughout the long term period, with a steady warming trend throughout as the pattern begins to progress. At the surface, models are in decent agreement that broad high pressure will largely be in control throughout the period. A couple of weak clipper systems in northwest flow aloft drop into the Great Lakes late in the period, but are expected to remain far enough north that the only impact on central Indiana would be an increase in sky cover. Vast majority of ensemble members from the Euro and GEFS are in agreement with this and produce no QPF across central Indiana throughout the period. The large scale upper level ridge over the West Coast early in the period will gradually shift eastward as the period moves on, with gradual height rises supporting the overall warming trend through the weekend into early next week, although uncertainty increases dramatically very late in the period, when guidance spread increases significantly and thus confidence lowers. There is a distinct possibility that another at least brief cooldown could occur toward or just past the end of the 7 day.
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