A high of nearly 70 degrees today with 20MPH winds. Rain and thunderstorms tomorrow with a high of 63 degrees. Tomorrow night's low will be 27 degrees.
There is a very slight risk of tornadoes in the southeastern part of Indiana for Thursday evening. Cold fronts and warm fronts don't get along well together. Because of that (70 degrees to 27 degrees) you get severe weather. Here is what the National Weather Service thinks:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 929 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 .Forecast Update... Issued at 929 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 Little changes made to the forecast for the morning update. Current surface analysis shows a strong area of low pressure near Marquette, MI with a front extending southwest toward Missouri. Tight gradient in the warm sector of the low combined with a strong low level jet to 60 kts about 1 km agl has resulted in gusty winds through the morning hours across Central Indiana. Highest wind gusts so far have been around 45 kts, with the strongest gusts across the north and eastern portions of Indiana. Strongest winds within the low level jet are currently moving off to the northeast, so expect a slow diminishing trend in wind gusts through the rest of the morning hours and into the afternoon. Current IND ACARS sounding shows a mixed layer up to about 1 km with steep low level lapse rates below it. Despite weakening winds aloft, expect mixing to continue through the day resulting in continued gusty winds to 20 to 35 mph into the afternoon hours. Will let the Wind Advisory expire at 10 AM as wind gusts over 45 mph will likely be infrequent going into the afternoon. Mixing heights are reaching into an extremely dry layer aloft, so expect RH values to plummet this afternoon as temperatures rise and dew points fall. Will be going well below guidance for dew points during peak heating of the day. Despite drier air aloft, fire weather concerns remain low due to RH values still in the 40s and 50s. High temperatures will likely be above guidance in this set up into the 60s. Would not be surprised to see a few locations reach 70 for the first time this year across South Central Indiana! && .Short Term...(Today Through Thursday) Issued at 152 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 ...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MID-MORNING, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY... Today. Focus for today will be the exiting low pressure system that brought rain to the area Tuesday evening and then the gusty winds through the overnight hours. For thoughts on the gusty winds through 15Z, see the mesoscale discussion above. The LLJ will gradually begin to relax after 15Z through the daytime hours as the first low pressure system continues to push into Southern Canada and the pressure gradients loosen. Expect that gusts up to 30 mph will continue through the early afternoon hours. Skies will generally clear by mid morning with the loss of moisture aloft, but a few lingering areas of clouds may continue into the late morning across the northwestern counties. Temperatures should have no problem rapidly warming into the low to mid 60s for much of the area with the potential for a few areas up to 70 degrees across the south. Tonight. A second and more potent system then looks to follow a somewhat similar path Wednesday night into Thursday with a much more robust area of forcing to the south compared to the Tuesday night system. Surface winds will briefly become northerly during the early overnight hours ahead of this system which will end the WAA and allow for a quick drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s before the southerly flow returns. A warm front associated with the aforementioned low pressure system will push into the southern counties by around 09Z with periods of light to moderate rain before the potential for strong to severe storms during the afternoon hours tomorrow with southeastern Indiana within the warm sector. Thursday. By 12Z Thursday, the surface low will be centered over southern Illinois and will track across the I-70 corridor while gradually strengthening through the afternoon hours. A brief window for strong to severe storms is possible starting initially in the southwestern counties between 15Z and 18Z and then across the southeastern counties between 18Z and 22Z. Storm motion will be quick with speeds of 50-60mph likely. Models are coming much closer in alignment for the severe potential with around 50-70kts of effective bulk shear, 400-700 J/kg of CAPE, and 200-300 m^2/s^2 of 0-1km helicity. Current thoughts are in the timeframes that were previously mentioned that isolated to scattered discrete cells will push through with the potential for damaging winds as the primary threat as well as a non-zero hail and tornado threat. SPC has placed portions of the area in an Enhanced Risk which seems a little bullish based on the marginal thermal profile. South central Indiana will be on the far northern edge of the severe threat with much more favorable conditions south and east of the forecast area. Areas north of I-69 will generally be north of the warm front with a lack of good moisture flow, so only expect showers and a few rumbles of thunder. In addition to the severe threat, gradient winds up to 40 mph are likely at times through the afternoon hours with mixing down of the LLJ winds aloft. Quiet conditions will then arrive by the evening hours as the storms push through Ohio. && .Long Term...(Thursday Night Through Tuesday) Issued at 152 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 Thursday Night Through Sunday. A quick blast of colder air arrives Thursday night, but even that is just dropping temperatures to what is normal for this time of the year. Northwesterly wind gusts to 25 mph will bring wind chills into the upper single digits to low teens Friday morning, but by late Friday night flow will return to the south with warmer air building in for the weekend. Temperatures will warm into the mid 40s Saturday and then the low to mid 50s on Sunday with plenty of sun each day. A very subtle mid level wave will bring some cirrus to the area Saturday night, but no impacts are expected otherwise. Monday and Tuesday. The pattern then begins to become more active early next week as a frontal system moves through the area. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty as to how much forcing and moisture will be available along with the broader synoptic pattern, but think that a period of rain is likely between late Monday and Tuesday. The warmer than normal pattern that has been in place through much of the month will continue through early next week before cooling down to near normal towards Wednesday.
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