The National Weather Service has already issued Excessive Heat Warnings in Missouri. There's an Excessive Heat Watch in place for most of Illinois. I think something will be posted for Indiana by Sunday morning or evening. The National Weather Service office in Indianapolis is saying this:
.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Enjoy today`s cooler temperatures as the long term will jump back to hot and humid conditions for the entirety of the period. Widespread highs in the 90s will be likely and could prompt future headlines for the heat. An upper ridge moving in that looks to meander through the central plains and Mississippi Valley for all of next week. This not only helps to suppress much of the potential for convection but will also allow the hot conditions. With that said, can`t completely rule out the chance of afternoon pop up storms given the heat and moisture as well as models showing us under the periphery of the ridge most of the time. Confidence is low for now in regards to PoPs as these would be more mesoscale features that the long term typically doesn`t handle well. Still thinking that models are really over doing the highs as they are unrealistic for several reasons. NBM is doing better but still likely a little high as it has overestimated a few times over this summer already trying to forecast highs in the upper 90s. Thus, have adjusted highs down ever so slightly for Tuesday through Thursday, which will likely be the hottest days. Confidence is high that it will be hot but exact high temperatures could still change some over the coming days. Lows are expected to be near 70 so not much relief overnight.
The National Weather Service office in Paducah, Kentucky has issued this for Evansville, Indiana:
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service PADUCAH KY 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 ILZ076>078-082-083-086-087-090-091-094-INZ081-082-085>088- KYZ001>022-190815- Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Hamilton-White-Saline-Gallatin-Pope- Hardin-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-Warrick-Spencer- Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-Livingston- Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster- Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-Muhlenberg-Todd- Including the cities of Fairfield, Albion, Mount Carmel, McLeansboro, Carmi, Harrisburg, Shawneetown, Golconda, Elizabethtown, Metropolis, Fort Branch, Petersburg, Poseyville, Evansville, Boonville, Rockport, Hickman, Clinton, Bardwell, Wickliffe, Paducah, Mayfield, Smithland, Benton, Murray, Marion, Eddyville, Cadiz, Princeton, Morganfield, Dixon, Madisonville, Hopkinsville, Henderson, Owensboro, Calhoun, Greenville, and Elkton 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 /305 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023/ ...Extended period of dangerous heat forecast... After a period of more comfortable conditions temperatures and humidity are expected to increase sharply on Sunday. Conditions are then expected to remain stagnant for several days. Heat index values of 105 or higher are possible every afternoon from Monday through at least Thursday. Unlike previous heat waves this summer the chance of showers or thunderstorms developing to break up the heat appears very low. Forecast updates and heat watches and warnings/advisories will be issued as the event nears, but those with heat-related concerns should begin planning for an extended period of dangerously hot conditions.
And now let's look at the models. As we already know, the European model is considered the best and is more reliable than the American model. The European model is the ECMWF and the American model is called the GFS but let's start with the American model first:
It shows 103 degrees on August 23. Now let's look at the European model:
It shows 101 degrees on August 24. The only difference is two degrees in 24 hours. This is very intersting to me because all summer these models have been disagreeing with each other by and especially beyond a 24 hour period.
So, all of this to say...it will be hot next week. Stay hydrated and remember your pets and check on your loves ones. Also, here's a bit of good news: Fall starts in 35 days. #BOTS!
Clarification: Someone asked me a great question so I wanted to clarify something. The temperatures in the models above are forecasts for actual air temperatures. They are not heat indices. Those (heat indices) will likely be even higher!
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