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Does the upcoming winter storm have you stressed out and worried?
If so then stay away from social media! It will make it worse. What next, an ice storm tornado?
Updates and thoughts on the winter storm setup for central Indiana this weekend.
First off, remember to trust the professionals at the National Weather Service. They just extended the Winter Storm Watch southwards in the state of Georgia while everyone else is talking about northward trends. Kudos to the NWS.
Be very careful and suspicious of snow maps on social media.
The latest GFS model has started shifting the storm south again.
My guess is that the heaviest precipitation is in the far southern Indiana counties and the northern Kentucky counties. All points south of there need to worry about ice and losing power. Go to Lowe's and get a generator if you can afford one. The cold that follows the storm is to dangerous to be without power and heat.
Which track will the 1/24 to 1/26 big snowstorm take?
The upcoming winter weather for this weekend will be one for the history books. That is because of its impact and severity as well as weather forecasting in general. For about the last eight to ten days the weather models have been hinting at a very large snowstorm between 1/24 and 1/26. Eight days ago, one of the weather models gave us a whopping 58 inches of snow. After that, all the models sensed the arctic air intrusion from the polar vortex and began suppressing the snowstorm system to the deep south in states like Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama. In the early morning hours of today, the computer models adjusted again to show the snowstorm system being in the Ohio Valley. There will always be variations in computer modeling and in both the AI models but this one has people fighting each other and being mean. At issue is the fact that the National Weather Service is continuing with its winter storm watches in the deep south. Some social media weather personalities are saying that the NWS is wrong and should not be trusted and the storm will hit the Ohio Valley. One of these solutions could be right or maybe some combination of both could be right. Whatever you do, just check your favorite source for weather updates for this weekend. Stay weather aware and be safe out there. And just as I am ending this post, the National Weather Service has posted Winter Storm Watches for our far southern Indiana counties.
Ps: I am not an expert. I have a hobby and an interest in chaotic systems, mainly in weather, climate, finance and the stock market.
The aurora borealis aka the northern lights will be visible in Indiana tonight.
A G4 geomagnetic storm happened today and that will cause the northern lights to be visible. Check it out. Hopefully the Hoosier will have won the football game by then.
Of holidays and broken records.
Happy MLK Day!
On this day in history back on January 19, 1994, Indianapolis saw a record low temperature of -27 degrees. The windchill was -43 degrees.
Computer weather models will drive you crazy!
So yesterday the GFS had an insane ice storm over Indiana for the last week of January while the EURO had rain and thunderstorms. Today the EURO has an ice storm and the GFS has rain and thunderstorms. The GFS is posted in my previous post. Here is the new EURO model showing ice.
Here is the new GFS model showing rain and thunderstorms.
The last week of January is going to be wild!
All of the computer models are showing some very extreme stuff lately and you'll likely see this on social media. Something is coming but it's still too early to say exactly what it is but please be weather-aware for the last week of January.
Who's excited about a three day ice storm? Anyone???
The National Weather Service in Indianapolis releases new experimental 72 hour winter forecasts.
They are also asking the public for feedback. Check it out:
Also, check out the Climate Prediction Center:
Beware of social media hype on snowstorm predictions.
Yes, there will be a snowstorm somewhere in the Ohio Valley between 1/23 and 1/28 but no one has any details this far in advance. So be very careful and distrustful of what you see on social media. Here are two such examples:
This would be Stephen King thriller novel if it happened.
Cenrtal Indiana is about to head into the heart of winter.
Winter will kick in starting on Thursday, January 15th and it might not let up until the second week of February or near Valentine's Day. Of special interest is the last week of January. All the ingredients are there for a major winter storm to develop somewhere in the Ohio Valley. Both the GFS and EURO are in agreement that something is brewing between January 23 and January 28. That is the timeframe to watch. Get your ice scrapers and snow shovels ready and Bring On The Snow! BOTS!
The Polar Vortex will visit Indiana during the last week of January into February.
Check out this long range model 2M AGL temperature map from the CFS for February 3rd.
My winter weather prediction for central Indiana for the rest of January and into February of 2026.
It looks like the Polar Vortex will return after January 15th. When it arrives, it will make it as far south as Indianapolis and then it will work its way farther south as each clipper system dives down from Canada. The pattern evolving has three different storm tracks. I drew an ugly picture for you all. The two blue lines represent cold air intrusions from Canada from the PV. The first (top) blue line puts Bloomington in the warm sector but not by much. The second blue line (bottom) puts Bloomington in the cold sector. The red line represents the southern branch of the jet stream.
One of these could be the dominant feature or, two of them could be the dominant feature. If the second blue line and the red line phase together early enough and strengthen early-on, that could give us a Big Mama snowstorm. But that's a big “if”. Right now, I don't see any chances for big snows until after January 21st. If you are not from central Indiana, we typically get out big snows from about January 18th to February 14th. That is the sweet spot for big snows. Now, that's not to say that it can't happen before that period or after that period but that is the norm for central Indiana.
Okay, so here is an example of how the Polar Vortex will likely set up:
Another thing that I've noticed is that the first week of February is trending colder; much colder than normal. Check out the period between February 6 through February 9. How about that -22 degrees at 7:00AM on February 6?
There's not much snow in the 10 day forecast but I think we'll see snow during the last week of January. For now though, expect that infamous "Snow Hole" over Indiana. The first below is the GFS model and the second one is the Euro model.
Both the GFS and the Euro have AI Models and here are their predictions respectively. Same sharp cut-offs.
Lastly, the CFS is the longest range model that I know of and it is not to be trusted this far out but here is a map of total snowfall accumulation between now and February 9th.
That's a whopping 16 inches of snow in the picture above.
So here are my predictions:
Off and on warm & cold with small snow shower chances and rain now through January 15th.
The Polar Vortex comes to visit after January 15th and sets up near Indianapolis.
The Polar Vortex digs farther south by January 20th.
Expect a snowstorm somewhere in the Ohio Valley and the northeast during the last week of January.
Expect a very cold opening to February.
#BOTS!
(Bring On The Snow!)
Where is winter? When is it coming back?
It's going to be a warm week with temperatures in the upper 50's and lower 60's. There's a chance for thunderstorms on Friday. After that, snow returns on Sunday.
The overall pattern will flip back and forth between warm and cold until January 15th. After that the models are hinting at sustained cold and multiple clipper snows from Canada.
#BOTS!
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